Does Biden's Florida 2020 performance actually look more impressive in the context of 2022?
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  Does Biden's Florida 2020 performance actually look more impressive in the context of 2022?
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Author Topic: Does Biden's Florida 2020 performance actually look more impressive in the context of 2022?  (Read 462 times)
Alben Barkley
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« on: November 30, 2022, 08:33:22 PM »

I think it does. That state seems to have absolutely lurched to the right, so Biden holding Trump to within about 3 points is no small feat when Crist and Demings got completely destroyed.

On the other hand, Hillary barely lost it so it's hard to know what to make of it.
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HisGrace
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« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2022, 10:20:34 PM »

There is nothing "impressive" about Dems continued ability to lose Florida when it should be a purple state that flips back and forth.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #2 on: November 30, 2022, 10:25:44 PM »

Definitely not.  Biden gained pretty much everywhere in 2020, so losing ground in Florida is actually pretty downright pathetic. 
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #3 on: November 30, 2022, 10:27:48 PM »

No.

2022 saw yuge turnout drop on the D side since idk, 2014 when everything was real low.

2020 was record turnout on all sides.

Ergo, the 2016-2018 years are a better reference point...maybe 2014 when Florida actually voted left of the nation [and the choice was still Charlie Crist instead of someone of substance.]
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TDAS04
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« Reply #4 on: November 30, 2022, 11:02:14 PM »

I don’t think so.  Florida is just so odd.  Democrats almost knocked out Governor Scott in the disastrous 2014 midterms, only to narrowly lose the governorship again and have Nelson barely unseated by Scott during the better national climate 4 years later.  Now in 2022, Florida really liked its Republican incumbents.  It’s hard to know what’s going on in Florida, though Republicans seem to always win, and seem to make their already-firm grip on the state ever-stronger.

Al Gore really overperformed when you think about it.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #5 on: November 30, 2022, 11:04:36 PM »
« Edited: November 30, 2022, 11:14:27 PM by Alben Barkley »

Definitely not.  Biden gained pretty much everywhere in 2020, so losing ground in Florida is actually pretty downright pathetic.  

Biden flipped a bunch of counties in Florida though including Duval, Seminole, and Pinellas. He hit his marks nearly everywhere in the state... But the massive and unexpected swing against him in Miami-Dade almost singlehandedly sunk him.

If Miami-Dade is just a red-leaning county now as it looks like it might be, I think that makes his performance more forgivable at least.

Also I'm not sure how you can have it both ways: "Well OF COURSE Biden should have done better in Florida because it's a swing state and its demographics should be favorable to Dems" yet at the same time ALSO "Lol libtard, demographics aren't destiny, Florida is a red state now and ye should abandon all hope!"

Because it sure seems like that's what you're trying to do.

In any case 2020 and 2022 were two elections in a row where Florida swung massively to the right of the nation, and indeed in both cases swung farther right than just about everywhere else even as every other swing state swung left.. It can no longer legitimately be considered a purple state, and mocking Democratic performance there now is almost as pointless as mocking Democratic performance in Alabama and Republican performance in Massachusetts.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #6 on: December 01, 2022, 03:34:00 PM »

Definitely not.  Biden gained pretty much everywhere in 2020, so losing ground in Florida is actually pretty downright pathetic. 

Biden flipped a bunch of counties in Florida though including Duval, Seminole, and Pinellas. He hit his marks nearly everywhere in the state... But the massive and unexpected swing against him in Miami-Dade almost singlehandedly sunk him.

If Miami-Dade is just a red-leaning county now as it looks like it might be, I think that makes his performance more forgivable at least.

Also I'm not sure how you can have it both ways: "Well OF COURSE Biden should have done better in Florida because it's a swing state and its demographics should be favorable to Dems" yet at the same time ALSO "Lol libtard, demographics aren't destiny, Florida is a red state now and ye should abandon all hope!"

Because it sure seems like that's what you're trying to do.

In any case 2020 and 2022 were two elections in a row where Florida swung massively to the right of the nation, and indeed in both cases swung farther right than just about everywhere else even as every other swing state swung left.. It can no longer legitimately be considered a purple state, and mocking Democratic performance there now is almost as pointless as mocking Democratic performance in Alabama and Republican performance in Massachusetts.

Miami-Dade is the largest, most organized basket of Democrat votes anywhere in the state of FL.  That Biden could not build up enough of an advantage there to flip the state (especially given how strong Obama and Clinton had run in M-D) suggests an act of electoral malfeasance.  And it's not like Biden ignored FL, either:  it was the #2 most-targeted state in the country (only behind PA.)

There certainly has been a shift in South FL over the previous ~6 years, but to play it off as some inevitability that would have occurred regardless of what Democrats did is not realistic.   

also calling FL as Republican now as AL is truly a galaxy-brained take LOL.  I think Biden very possibly wins FL in 2024 vs Trump

never change, AB
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bagelman
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« Reply #7 on: December 02, 2022, 09:30:21 PM »

No, but given how FL was this year, I would say a repeat of 2016 would've.
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