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April 24, 2024, 11:47:52 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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Vice President Christian Man
Christian Man
Junior Chimp
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« on: November 30, 2022, 03:22:03 PM »

For mine I got 78% chance of voting Rep.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/11/03/how-to-forecast-an-americans-vote
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2022, 03:34:39 PM »

I did the two main characters of my romance novel (work in progress); a (fictional) U.S. president falling in love with a young African American woman and political organizer. As wealthy businessman from Connecticut, in his mid/late 40s, married and a daughter, he got 54% Republican. In the book, however, he's a mainstream Democrat. She got 97% Democratic (black woman in her early 30s from Alexandria, Virginia, with post-college degree).

It's funny, when you do Joe Biden, you get 70% Republican.
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SWE
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« Reply #2 on: November 30, 2022, 03:38:40 PM »

95% Democrat
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #3 on: November 30, 2022, 03:46:18 PM »

I've seen this before.

56% Democratic. If I wasn't a regular church goers that would only increase to 61% Democratic.
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #4 on: November 30, 2022, 03:59:29 PM »

98% chance of voting democrat. Most of that is from being a queer atheist. (I checked the woman box because "woman" sometimes fits and "man" pretty much never does).
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TPIG
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« Reply #5 on: November 30, 2022, 04:08:51 PM »

Myself - 59% chance of voting GOP (probably a pretty accurate proportion, of how I actually vote, TBH)
Mom - 95% chance Dem - super accurate
Dad - 78% chance GOP - not at all the case, the only Republican he has ever voted for was Raffensperger earlier this month
My best friend - 74% chance Dem - he votes as his demographics would predict

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Del Tachi
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« Reply #6 on: November 30, 2022, 10:28:49 PM »

Quote from: President Johnson link=topic=532377.msg8894469#msg8894469
It's funny, when you do Joe Biden, you get 70% Republican.

And Trump is a 56% Democrat!
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #7 on: November 30, 2022, 11:33:03 PM »

BTW if I were Catholic but otherwise the same I'd be 53% R, so ha!

A Catholic female version of myself is 63% D but a Protestant female version of myself is 71% D. Hard to argue that being Catholic makes people more Democratic as some here have claimed...
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #8 on: November 30, 2022, 11:39:34 PM »

I've got a 91% chance of voting Democrat.

Presumably being a 24-year-old, college-educated atheist making <$30k are the primary factors here.


How are you getting that? I put in Trump's answers (white/non-born again/Protestant/straight/man/65+/non-regular church goer/married/has kids/college degree/$100k+/city/south/doesn't speak Spanish) and it gives a 67% chance of voting Republican.
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #9 on: November 30, 2022, 11:58:36 PM »

91% dem

Dad got 85% dem
Mom 51% republican

I've got a 91% chance of voting Democrat.

Presumably being a 24-year-old, college-educated atheist making <$30k are the primary factors here.


How are you getting that? I put in Trump's answers (white/non-born again/Protestant/straight/man/65+/non-regular church goer/married/has kids/college degree/$100k+/city/south/doesn't speak Spanish) and it gives a 67% chance of voting Republican.
If you change to New York City it's still at 58% Republican.
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« Reply #10 on: November 30, 2022, 11:58:38 PM »
« Edited: December 01, 2022, 12:18:09 PM by khuzifenq »

Jane Gloriana Villanueva from Jane the Virgin:

  • Season 1 start (<30, unmarried, no kids, almost done with her bachelors): 67% D if her grandma's house is in Miami proper, 55% D if in the northern Miami-Dade suburbs.
  • Season 2 (<30, unmarried, has kids, currently in grad school): 70% D or 57% D
  • End of 2016 (<30, married, has kids, currently in grad school): 62% D or 52% R
  • Immediately post-time skip: (<30, probably done with grad school?): 72% D, 59% D, 78% D, or 67% D depending on how you interpret the categories
  • Present-day (I know how the show ends, so 30-44, postgrad): 71% D or 58% D if personal income has gone up, otherwise 75% D or 62% D

Mohan Vishwakumar from Never Have I Ever. I'm assuming he's the same age as his actor Senthil Ramamurthy was when filming began for the show, so just under 45. He's a straight Hindu (Other Religion) Asian man who's married and has a daughter.

  • San Fernando Valley = city, bachelors, personal income < $100k: 82% D
  • San Fernando Valley = city, bachelors, personal income > $100k: 80 % D
  • San Fernando Valley = suburb, bachelors, personal income < $100k: 77% D
  • San Fernando Valley = suburb, bachelors, personal income > $100k: 74% D
  • San Fernando Valley = city, postgrad, personal income < $100k: 90% D
  • San Fernando Valley = city, postgrad, personal income > $100k: 88% D
  • San Fernando Valley = suburb, postgrad, personal income < $100k: 85% D
  • San Fernando Valley = suburb, postgard, personal income > $100k: 84% D
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Continential
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« Reply #11 on: December 01, 2022, 06:57:32 AM »

Dad got 56% Dem and Mom got 50%.
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President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
Peebs
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« Reply #12 on: December 01, 2022, 09:13:50 AM »
« Edited: December 01, 2022, 03:00:25 PM by Free April Daniels »

Somewhere between 87% (labeling myself as a Catholic with no college education who doesn't speak Spanish--I speak a little bit, but not enough to keep a conversation) and 99% (labeling myself as an atheist with some college who does speak Spanish--though if I didn't speak Spanish it'd still be 99%) D.

Things that didn't change are that I'm a white, non-born-again queer woman between 18 and 29 who is not a regular church-goer. I am unmarried, have no children, and earn less than $30,000 a year. I live in a city in the South.

EDIT: Forgot to point out which party, though considering I am a trans lesbian zoomer, it should be obvious.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #13 on: December 01, 2022, 09:54:46 AM »

I get 78% Dem.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #14 on: December 01, 2022, 10:01:51 AM »

I've got a 91% chance of voting Democrat.

Presumably being a 24-year-old, college-educated atheist making <$30k are the primary factors here.


How are you getting that? I put in Trump's answers (white/non-born again/Protestant/straight/man/65+/non-regular church goer/married/has kids/college degree/$100k+/city/south/doesn't speak Spanish) and it gives a 67% chance of voting Republican.

Change it to New York City and give Trump a post-grad degree (since I believe he has an MBA?)
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West_Midlander
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« Reply #15 on: December 01, 2022, 12:19:43 PM »

84% D
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #16 on: December 01, 2022, 02:54:39 PM »

I've got a 91% chance of voting Democrat.

Presumably being a 24-year-old, college-educated atheist making <$30k are the primary factors here.


How are you getting that? I put in Trump's answers (white/non-born again/Protestant/straight/man/65+/non-regular church goer/married/has kids/college degree/$100k+/city/south/doesn't speak Spanish) and it gives a 67% chance of voting Republican.

Change it to New York City and give Trump a post-grad degree (since I believe he has an MBA?)

As far as I can tell he has a BS in Economics but not an MBA.
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Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #17 on: December 01, 2022, 09:35:27 PM »

I got 99% D, yeah not all that surprising as an urbanite queer young millenial  atheist
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Santander
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« Reply #18 on: December 01, 2022, 10:58:27 PM »

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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #19 on: December 02, 2022, 12:32:29 AM »

98% Democrat

A white, non-born-again, atheist, LGBTQ man between 18 and 29 who is not a regular church-goer. He is unmarried, has no children, has some college education, and earns <$30k a year. He lives in the suburbs in the Midwest and does speak Spanish.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #20 on: December 02, 2022, 02:36:09 PM »

I've done this before, but it's still fun to experiment. The only difference between now and the last time I took it is I'm learning Spanish, but my understanding is still elementary and while I am okay at writing, I could never carry a normal-paced conversation. But the difference is very small: 78% Democrat if I do speak Spanish versus 76% if I don't.

Changing my race from white to black also makes a surprisingly modest difference: just 80% Democratic. "Other race" gets me to 86%, Asian drives me to 91%, and Hispanic is the only option which makes me more Republican: 75% Democratic if I speak Spanish versus 70% if I don't.

If I keep all else the same, but change LGBTQ to straight, I get 56% Republican.
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #21 on: December 02, 2022, 02:48:14 PM »

My interpretation of the Spanish question is whether you speak it as a heritage language at home/with family, not whether you have any familiarity with or are fluent in the language. Although I guess they're practically the same for estadounidenses hispanos.

It'd be nice to have an updated 2020 or 2022-based version.
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Vosem
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« Reply #22 on: December 02, 2022, 02:52:26 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2022, 03:10:39 PM by Vosem »

My interpretation of the Spanish question is whether you speak it as a heritage language at home/with family, not whether you have any familiarity with or are fluent in the language. Although I guess they're practically the same for estadounidenses hispanos.

I speak it at home with my brother to avoid the rest of the family understanding us, but we both learned it through the education system Tongue

(I also use it for work nowadays and have traveled through Latin America quite a bit, to the point that it's a part of my identity and I would fundamentally feel like I was lying if I answered otherwise).

(Although ticking the 'speaks Spanish' button only ticks my chances of voting Democratic up to 83% from 82%.)

~~

white, non-born again, Jewish, straight, man, between 18 and 29, not a regular church-goer, unmarried, has no children, has a postgraduate degree, earns $65-99k a year, lives in the suburbs, in the Midwest, and does speak Spanish
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #23 on: December 02, 2022, 02:57:38 PM »

An Asian, non-born-again Muslim, straight man between 18 and 29 who is a regular church-goer. He is unmarried, has no children, has a post-graduate degree and earns +$100k a year. He lives in the suburbs in the West and does not speak Spanish.

96% D
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Del Tachi
Republican95
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« Reply #24 on: December 02, 2022, 03:36:28 PM »

It also seems silly that there are wild swings depending on whether you are a "born again" or "non-born again" Jew, Mormon, Muslim, etc.  I'm sure fundamentalism in these faiths does affect someone's politics, but is that really what the tool is accounting for? 
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