I say this as someone who is young, and currently goes to a generally liberal high school in NYC that has significant pockets of conservative Asians and Jewishs. Everyone basically supports stuff like same sex relationships to the point where people don't really care whether someone is gay or trans, it's just the social norms we grew up with. To many, this sort of makes these social issues seem like non-issues compared to our adult friends who actually lived in times when there were literal sodomy laws in many states. This may be optimistic on my part, but I genuinely feel that by 2030, gay marriage, and transgenderism will largely be a non-issue in our politics. I do suspect the sports debate will actually stick around though because you can def argue it's unfair without directly attacking trans folks, but it will never be a driving factor in our politics.
As a Southerner, this sort of thing really reminds me how far we still have to go. I grew up in Atlanta, obviously quite liberal relative to most of the South, and I still remember my health teacher heavily implying that AIDS was a divine punishment for homosexuality in middle school. I'm only 20, but I
definitely remember a time when overt homophobia was not just accepted but the norm. We've genuinely made great strides since then, and I imagine that a healthy majority now support gay rights, but that homophobia is 100% still latent, especially relative to what you describe.
Come to think of it, I'd be interested to know the partisan leanings of LGBT people by age and by region. Queer Republicans have always confused and angered me because growing up it was always very apparent that most conservatives thought queer people were going to hell and some were happy to send them there early; maybe many queer people in NYC, for example, never experienced that level of antipathy and are therefore more willing to consider voting Republican.
