Does Arizona have some of the most "liberal" Republicans and Independents of any state?

[Cyrusman]

Generally speaking, are Republicans and Independents in Arizona significantly more liberal than the average republican and independent in any of the other states?

Where I'm going with this is that this is now the 3rd consecutive election in which we have seen a Democrat win 10% of the Republican voters as well as win independents decisively.

Sinema won roughly 12% of Republicans in 2018 and won independents.
Biden won 10% of republicans in 2020 against Trump and again won independents .
This year, even Katie Hobbs in a favorable year to Republicans won 9-10% of Republicans and again won independents .

Winning 10% of the opposing parties voters in 3 strait elections is not normal for today's day and age with how much polarization there is. It's one thing if a Democrat doesn't vote for a Democrat or a Republican doesn't vote for a Republican and leaves that section blank or does a write in. Its another thing if 10% of republicans are consistently voting Democrat.

So are Arizona Republicans amongst the most liberal in the country or are the republicans in AZ "weaker republicans" in the sense that they really aren't that loyal to their party compared to other states?

[Ferguson97]

No, that would be Vermont or Massachusetts. The only Republicans they vote for are potted plant governors who get their vetoes overridden by the Democratic supermajority state legislature.

[Vosem]

No. In fact Arizona has some of the most extreme Republicans out there, both on racial identity issues (like Gosar) and on fiscal conservatism issues (like Biggs, who was, I cannot stress this enough, Speaker of the state House). In an earlier generation they also had some of the most interventionist Republicans.

[TDAS04]

No.  They might be more libertarian that the average Republican nationwide (Arizona is far from the worst on such issues as LGBT rights), but they are definitely not the "most liberal" in the country.  That would be New England.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

No. In fact Arizona has some of the most extreme Republicans out there, both on racial identity issues (like Gosar) and on fiscal conservatism issues (like Biggs, who was, I cannot stress this enough, Speaker of the state House). In an earlier generation they also had some of the most interventionist Republicans.

Biggs was Senate President, not House Speaker, but yes, Arizona has produced some incredibly right-wing lawmakers over the years, including recent years, and its "moderate" Republican officeholders like McCain have tended to be idiosyncratic rather than conventionally centrist. If its Republicans weren't so extreme then the state's voting behavior might not be gliding leftward.

[Cyrusman]

No. In fact Arizona has some of the most extreme Republicans out there, both on racial identity issues (like Gosar) and on fiscal conservatism issues (like Biggs, who was, I cannot stress this enough, Speaker of the state House). In an earlier generation they also had some of the most interventionist Republicans.

Then how would you explain 10-12% of AZ republicans consistently voting Democrat?

[Smash255]

No. In fact Arizona has some of the most extreme Republicans out there, both on racial identity issues (like Gosar) and on fiscal conservatism issues (like Biggs, who was, I cannot stress this enough, Speaker of the state House). In an earlier generation they also had some of the most interventionist Republicans.

Then how would you explain 10-12% of AZ republicans consistently voting Democrat?

Some of it is likely how extreme some of the office holders in Arizona are as well as the GOP candidates themselves.   Shapiro won 16% of Republicans and won Independents 64-33 in Pennsylvania.  Mastriano being an extremist nut job likely was a major factor.  You have a bunch of candidates in Arizona that really aren't much less bats*** crazy than Mastriano is that will explain part of it.

[kwabbit]

In states where one party had the upper hand for a long time, the majority party has broad ranks and the minority party has narrow ranks. Extending past the partisanship of the state, even. Thus independents compromise more of the left than the right. Since Arizona has pretty rapidly trended left, the party registration and identification are lagging behind the actual vote choices. Thus you might have a lot of Romney types voting for the moderate Democrats the AZ Dems have put up and the already left leaning independents voting strongly for the Dem.

[Sol]

No. In fact Arizona has some of the most extreme Republicans out there, both on racial identity issues (like Gosar) and on fiscal conservatism issues (like Biggs, who was, I cannot stress this enough, Speaker of the state House). In an earlier generation they also had some of the most interventionist Republicans.

Then how would you explain 10-12% of AZ republicans consistently voting Democrat?

Arizona's shift in recent years has been very much tied to suburbanites who were voting Republican as recently as 2012 or 2016, and plenty of them probably still identify as such, whether their views have changed or not. Same reason you'll find lots of self-IDed Democrats voting for, say, Alex Mooney.

[smoltchanov]

In states where one party had the upper hand for a long time, the majority party has broad ranks and the minority party has narrow ranks. Extending past the partisanship of the state, even. Thus independents compromise more of the left than the right. Since Arizona has pretty rapidly trended left, the party registration and identification are lagging behind the actual vote choices. Thus you might have a lot of Romney types voting for the moderate Democrats the AZ Dems have put up and the already left leaning independents voting strongly for the Dem.

And so - Democratic party and it's candidates in the South gradually becomes more and more liberal, and Republican party and it's candidates, say, in New England - more and more conservative. There is little sense to be a conservative Democrat in first case, and liberal Republican (despite state's conservative and liberal leanings correspondingly) - in second, when you can make much better political career in "majority party" in both cases... Only "diehards" prefer to remain in dire minority)))). But Arizona had it's share of relatively moderate Republican legislators, and at least "somewhat conservative" Democratic (not Bob Stump-style, of course, but still) ones until fairly recently (somewhere near 2010). Not anymore...

[Del Tachi]

Trump is a specific anathema to a certain type of AZ Republican who has always held contempt for the national GOP organization (i..e, maverick-y John McCain.)  You can quite easily place how well Kelly and Sinema did among Republicans in this context. 

[Cyrusman]

No. In fact Arizona has some of the most extreme Republicans out there, both on racial identity issues (like Gosar) and on fiscal conservatism issues (like Biggs, who was, I cannot stress this enough, Speaker of the state House). In an earlier generation they also had some of the most interventionist Republicans.

Then how would you explain 10-12% of AZ republicans consistently voting Democrat?

Arizona's shift in recent years has been very much tied to suburbanites who were voting Republican as recently as 2012 or 2016, and plenty of them probably still identify as such, whether their views have changed or not. Same reason you'll find lots of self-IDed Democrats voting for, say, Alex Mooney.

Is it surprising through in today's day and age with polarization how many self identified republicans are voting democrat?

[Cyrusman]

Trump is a specific anathema to a certain type of AZ Republican who has always held contempt for the national GOP organization (i..e, maverick-y John McCain.)  You can quite easily place how well Kelly and Sinema did among Republicans in this context. 

So would you say you have to be a very moderate, socially more liberal republican to have success in AZ?

[smoltchanov]

Trump is a specific anathema to a certain type of AZ Republican who has always held contempt for the national GOP organization (i..e, maverick-y John McCain.)  You can quite easily place how well Kelly and Sinema did among Republicans in this context. 

So would you say you have to be a very moderate, socially more liberal republican to have success in AZ?

Well, i think "sane conservative" would do the trick too. But - such Republican as you describe (if nominated) would certainly win governorship, SOS and AG this year, and could even compete with Kelly for Senate. It's surely a plus to have crossover support (ask Phil Scott)))))....

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another factor at play here is AZ is one of those states where for a long time, Republicans were just seen as the "default" party, even if you didn't fully share values with them or weren't really clear on your values at the time you registered.

Ig on the flip side, a good example is WV, where Dems were the "default" party culturally when people would register and stuff