Democrats prepare to boot Iowa from “first in the nation” status
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  Democrats prepare to boot Iowa from “first in the nation” status
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Author Topic: Democrats prepare to boot Iowa from “first in the nation” status  (Read 3025 times)
DaleCooper
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« Reply #75 on: December 01, 2022, 09:56:13 AM »

The Iowa Hawkeyes just lost to Nebraska. I'd be embarrassed to hold a political caucus there too.
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
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« Reply #76 on: December 01, 2022, 10:02:46 AM »

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/30/minnesota-democrats-michigan-presidential-primary-00071551

MN and MI are front runners to replace Iowa. The chair of the MN Democratic-Farmer Labor Party has sent a letter to all voting DNC letter why MI should not get it.

His reasoning is that MI has more delegates than NH/NV/SC combined. A canididate could focus solely on MI.

I think MI is a good state to start. NV is nice, but still has a weird caucus system.

I'd give it to Minnesota. It has a long history of liberalism, is smaller, still has those pockets rural voters but with urban areas like the Twin Cities to counterbalance them.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #77 on: December 01, 2022, 10:31:51 AM »

The thing I like best about threads discussing the primary/caucus schedule is that for every 100 posts there will be about 95 different ideas on how to change it. Smiley
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #78 on: December 01, 2022, 02:41:54 PM »

The thing I like best about threads discussing the primary/caucus schedule is that for every 100 posts there will be about 95 different ideas on how to change it. Smiley
Because there’s no obvious solution. There’s no way to give every democrat in the country a fair vote on who becomes their nominee while also allowing no names a change

I deeply resent that certain states go first. Why should IA/NH/NV/SC get to decide the nominee? Why does Super Tuesday states get to decide the nominee?

I don’t understand the logic. If the nomination is effectively finish before half the country voted, how is that fair? Why should I, a registered Democrat, care if it’s easier for someone like John Delaney to win the nomination? (Especially since the nomination is going to one if the big names anyway)
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #79 on: December 01, 2022, 06:12:27 PM »

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/01/michigan-poised-to-replace-iowa-as-early-state-00071677

Biden endorses MI replacing IA as first in the nation. Fitting since IA placed Biden at 4th place
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #80 on: December 01, 2022, 09:37:01 PM »

Quote
“President Biden has asked leaders of the Democratic National Committee to make South Carolina the nation’s first primary state, followed by New Hampshire and Nevada a week later, and hold subsequent weekly primaries in Georgia and Michigan,” the Washington Post reports.

South Carolina was the state that sparked Biden's comeback in the 2020 Primary.  NH will surely fight for their primary to go first, so SC may get bumped to 2nd.  But either way seems fine to me.  I take this as a sign Michigan will be in the early mix of states, but probably 4th after the smaller states (NH, SC, NV) have gone.

I hope this is a sign we are dumping Iowa.
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Pericles
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« Reply #81 on: December 02, 2022, 12:12:08 AM »
« Edited: December 02, 2022, 03:20:52 AM by Pericles »

Quote
“President Biden has asked leaders of the Democratic National Committee to make South Carolina the nation’s first primary state, followed by New Hampshire and Nevada a week later, and hold subsequent weekly primaries in Georgia and Michigan,” the Washington Post reports.

South Carolina was the state that sparked Biden's comeback in the 2020 Primary.  NH will surely fight for their primary to go first, so SC may get bumped to 2nd.  But either way seems fine to me.  I take this as a sign Michigan will be in the early mix of states, but probably 4th after the smaller states (NH, SC, NV) have gone.

I hope this is a sign we are dumping Iowa.

That would be a boost for establishment Democrats while picking a state that is demographically unrepresentative of the party, like Iowa.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #82 on: December 02, 2022, 12:29:23 AM »

Initially, Strom Thurmond didn’t want South Carolina to have a primary or caucus because he wanted its delegates to vote how he told them to at GOP conventions. Lee Atwater convinced Thurmond that a primary would give SC more influence over who wins the GOP nomination because winning a primary gives a candidate media attention and creates a perception that they could win, which tends to be a self-fufilling prophecy.
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jojoju1998
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« Reply #83 on: December 02, 2022, 12:54:36 AM »

Quote
“President Biden has asked leaders of the Democratic National Committee to make South Carolina the nation’s first primary state, followed by New Hampshire and Nevada a week later, and hold subsequent weekly primaries in Georgia and Michigan,” the Washington Post reports.

South Carolina was the state that sparked Biden's comeback in the 2020 Primary.  NH will surely fight for their primary to go first, so SC may get bumped to 2nd.  But either way seems fine to me.  I take this as a sign Michigan will be in the early mix of states, but probably 4th after the smaller states (NH, SC, NV) have gone.

I hope this is a sign we are dumping Iowa.

That would be a boost for esatblishment Democrats while picking a state that is demographically unrepresentative of the party, like Iowa.

Can't we just do two states at once ?

Michigan AND South Carolina ? For the first set of contests ?
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #84 on: December 02, 2022, 10:19:21 AM »

I really hope hope SC doesn’t go first. It’s hurts progressive candidates

MI allows for both black representation (Detroit) which favors moderates candidates while giving progressives a chance from the strong labor unions, which are largely nonexistent in SC.

And MI looks more like the country as a whole.

Sanders surprised victory in 2016 gave his campaign a lot if credibility, momentum and hope. It also foresaw problems Hillary would have in the Midwest in the general election. Biden’s larger than expected victory in the 2020 primary in Michigan showed that he was a much better choice than Hillary, more competitive in the Midwest, and allowed progressive to accept him.
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
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« Reply #85 on: December 02, 2022, 04:19:31 PM »

Call me when that yee yee ass state starts voting for Democrats.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #86 on: December 02, 2022, 05:37:16 PM »

It's the right decision but I doubt that Republican trifectas in Iowa and New Hampshire will just sit idly and relinquish their coveted position in the primary calendar. It will be up to the DNC then to discourage the candidates from campaigning in these states.

For New Hampshire yeah, but aren't the caucuses run by the party?



Correct. The Democratic and Republican Caucuses can simply be held on separate days in IA. This already routinely happens for NV.

For NH, the DNC can simply strip it of its delegates and then it just becomes a non-binding beauty contest. They can hold a caucus or something at some later date, or just not allow NH to vote at the DNC at all.

They always restore those delegates at the convention though.

Nope. When they took away some delegates from disobedient states in 2008 they held firm and those votes were not cast. In 2016/20, all states eventually complied with DNC demands.


Nahh they were restored at the convention in 2008, I remember it. There had been months of contentious of debate about whether the Florida and Michigan primaries should mean anything, particularly Michigan where Obama wasn't on the ballot, and then they just counted them anyway in the end.

Okay, looked at it again, and you're technically correct, but it was only restored after Obama himself personally signed off on doing so. If the Nomination was still contested at that point, they in all likelihood would have been counted at half-weight as previously ruled by the DNC: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Democratic_National_Convention#Seating_of_delegates_from_Florida_and_Michigan

Half-Weight isn't total invalidation but it's a pretty steep punishment.
In 1996, Alaska and Lousiana had their caucuses before Iowa and the RNC stripped them of their delegates in retaliation.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #87 on: December 02, 2022, 06:14:30 PM »



1. New Hampshire
2. Georgia
3. Nevada
4. Michigan/Ohio
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #88 on: December 03, 2022, 12:01:41 AM »
« Edited: December 03, 2022, 12:05:12 AM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

It's logical that they do this, there isn't a statewide Senate race in 24 but Ernst is on the ballot in 26 and somehow we haven't heard the last of Fink, Ernst isn't Chuck Grassley and there will be Reynolds fatigue

As I have often said these battlegrounds aren't gonna stay red forever we just won KS GOV but Rs point to Ryan, DEMINGS and Beasley losing, lol it was a midterm not a Prez race if they ran in 24 which they're not they would win but Matthew Sancrainte, Brown, Gallego and Tester and winning the H can get us to the promise land of Filibuster proof Trifecta anyways

We can net a Secular Trifecta without Manchin or Sinema be ause Gallego and Matthew Sancrainte if I was Scott I would be nervous because Biden is leading Trump in FL and no way Miami Dade goes R in a Prez yr it was a midterm just like OH isn't gonna vote 20 pts to the right of the nation in a Prez race
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« Reply #89 on: December 03, 2022, 12:11:30 AM »

I really hope hope SC doesn’t go first. It’s hurts progressive candidates

MI allows for both black representation (Detroit) which favors moderates candidates while giving progressives a chance from the strong labor unions, which are largely nonexistent in SC.

And MI looks more like the country as a whole.

Sanders surprised victory in 2016 gave his campaign a lot if credibility, momentum and hope. It also foresaw problems Hillary would have in the Midwest in the general election. Biden’s larger than expected victory in the 2020 primary in Michigan showed that he was a much better choice than Hillary, more competitive in the Midwest, and allowed progressive to accept him.

Progressive candidates need to do a better job appealing to Black voters in the South, period. Campaign in SC, GA, NC, AL, TX, TN, etc.
You gotta be there
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jfern
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« Reply #90 on: December 03, 2022, 12:19:45 AM »

I really hope hope SC doesn’t go first. It’s hurts progressive candidates

MI allows for both black representation (Detroit) which favors moderates candidates while giving progressives a chance from the strong labor unions, which are largely nonexistent in SC.

And MI looks more like the country as a whole.

Sanders surprised victory in 2016 gave his campaign a lot if credibility, momentum and hope. It also foresaw problems Hillary would have in the Midwest in the general election. Biden’s larger than expected victory in the 2020 primary in Michigan showed that he was a much better choice than Hillary, more competitive in the Midwest, and allowed progressive to accept him.

Progressive candidates need to do a better job appealing to Black voters in the South, period. Campaign in SC, GA, NC, AL, TX, TN, etc.
You gotta be there

Bernie did well in the most diverse city in America, Oakland, both times, but that didn't fit the media narrative.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #91 on: December 03, 2022, 12:31:21 AM »

I really hope hope SC doesn’t go first. It’s hurts progressive candidates

MI allows for both black representation (Detroit) which favors moderates candidates while giving progressives a chance from the strong labor unions, which are largely nonexistent in SC.

And MI looks more like the country as a whole.

Sanders surprised victory in 2016 gave his campaign a lot if credibility, momentum and hope. It also foresaw problems Hillary would have in the Midwest in the general election. Biden’s larger than expected victory in the 2020 primary in Michigan showed that he was a much better choice than Hillary, more competitive in the Midwest, and allowed progressive to accept him.

Progressive candidates need to do a better job appealing to Black voters in the South, period. Campaign in SC, GA, NC, AL, TX, TN, etc.
You gotta be there
Progressives absolutely need to do a better job appealing to black voters….

Wait, didn’t Bernie win black voters under 30? Or was it 35?

The problem is the vast vast vast majority of black primary voters are over age 50. A progressive message is only going so far.

Bernie legit tried. He campaigned a lot in black churches in 2020. He made lowering Medicare age and expanding dental, health, vision to Medicare a big part of his platform.

Ultimately, the black church values loyalty over benefit. There was a very interesting article written by a African American journalist who interviewed several elders in his community. The consensus was Bernie’s platform would benefit black folks the most, but they liked the idea that Biden would owe his nomination to the black community
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NYDem
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« Reply #92 on: December 03, 2022, 01:15:56 AM »

I really hope hope SC doesn’t go first. It’s hurts progressive candidates

MI allows for both black representation (Detroit) which favors moderates candidates while giving progressives a chance from the strong labor unions, which are largely nonexistent in SC.

And MI looks more like the country as a whole.

Sanders surprised victory in 2016 gave his campaign a lot if credibility, momentum and hope. It also foresaw problems Hillary would have in the Midwest in the general election. Biden’s larger than expected victory in the 2020 primary in Michigan showed that he was a much better choice than Hillary, more competitive in the Midwest, and allowed progressive to accept him.

Progressive candidates need to do a better job appealing to Black voters in the South, period. Campaign in SC, GA, NC, AL, TX, TN, etc.
You gotta be there

Bernie did well in the most diverse city in America, Oakland, both times, but that didn't fit the media narrative.

Bernie doing badly in the black vote in the primary isn't a 'media narrative', it's a fact. According to exit polls Sanders did worse than Biden among black voters in every contest with a statistically relevant sample. Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Nevada are the only states where Biden didn't at least double Sanders' level of black support.

I don't know if that will keep being the case in the future. Coalitions change. Sanders himself did very well in building latino support between 2020 and 2024. By 2028 there could easily be a progressive candidate that wins a larger portion of the black vote than an establishment candidate. But it certainly wasn't the case in 2020.
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jfern
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« Reply #93 on: December 03, 2022, 01:24:04 AM »

I really hope hope SC doesn’t go first. It’s hurts progressive candidates

MI allows for both black representation (Detroit) which favors moderates candidates while giving progressives a chance from the strong labor unions, which are largely nonexistent in SC.

And MI looks more like the country as a whole.

Sanders surprised victory in 2016 gave his campaign a lot if credibility, momentum and hope. It also foresaw problems Hillary would have in the Midwest in the general election. Biden’s larger than expected victory in the 2020 primary in Michigan showed that he was a much better choice than Hillary, more competitive in the Midwest, and allowed progressive to accept him.

Progressive candidates need to do a better job appealing to Black voters in the South, period. Campaign in SC, GA, NC, AL, TX, TN, etc.
You gotta be there

Bernie did well in the most diverse city in America, Oakland, both times, but that didn't fit the media narrative.

Bernie doing badly in the black vote in the primary isn't a 'media narrative', it's a fact. According to exit polls Sanders did worse than Biden among black voters in every contest with a statistically relevant sample. Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Nevada are the only states where Biden didn't at least double Sanders' level of black support.

I don't know if that will keep being the case in the future. Coalitions change. Sanders himself did very well in building latino support between 2020 and 2024. By 2028 there could easily be a progressive candidate that wins a larger portion of the black vote than an establishment candidate. But it certainly wasn't the case in 2020.

Sure it happened in 1988, but Jackson was black, and I don't think the Democratic establishment was as entrenched then.
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John Dule
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« Reply #94 on: December 03, 2022, 03:12:26 AM »

The thing I like best about threads discussing the primary/caucus schedule is that for every 100 posts there will be about 95 different ideas on how to change it. Smiley

yeah but mine is the best
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #95 on: December 03, 2022, 11:32:46 AM »

Just discovered that Michigan is whiter than Minnesota. Wouldn’t have guessed that tbh.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #96 on: December 03, 2022, 11:45:10 AM »

Just discovered that Michigan is whiter than Minnesota. Wouldn’t have guessed that tbh.

Wonder how much of that is due to the relatively recent influx of Somali migrants.
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« Reply #97 on: December 03, 2022, 11:51:32 AM »

Just discovered that Michigan is whiter than Minnesota. Wouldn’t have guessed that tbh.

Wonder how much of that is due to the relatively recent influx of Somali migrants.
I think it is just that Minnesota has a higher immigration rate and is still growing while Michigan population has been stagnant for a while
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #98 on: December 03, 2022, 03:05:32 PM »

Just like in 2016, the primaries are rigged again.
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NYDem
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« Reply #99 on: December 03, 2022, 03:21:46 PM »

Just like in 2016, the primaries are rigged again.

Huh
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