GA-SEN Runoff (New Impact/FabrizioWard/AARP): Warnock +4
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  GA-SEN Runoff (New Impact/FabrizioWard/AARP): Warnock +4
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Author Topic: GA-SEN Runoff (New Impact/FabrizioWard/AARP): Warnock +4  (Read 2586 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #25 on: November 24, 2022, 08:42:37 AM »

I would argue that the democrats themselves are to blame for those huge losses.

The GOP did not win big in 2010 and in 2014 simply because they got  massive turnout they won big because the Dems decided to stay home and not even come out to vote at all. I hate to say it, but the Dems deciding not to vote in those Obama era midterms is the reason why Roe v Wade is now dead today..


Thankfully, unlike in 2010 Dems in 2022 knew full well that there would be horrible consequences if they just stayed home and let a bunch radical election denier gain full control over all of congress

All valid points. In essence though, both midterms showed how unreliable the Obama coalition was. They came out for him, but that was it. I think Trump's coalition was similar in that respect. I'm not sure the Senate could've been saved in 2014. That was an awful map. However, if Democrats had been able to hold CO, NC, and AK, they would've controlled the Senate after 2016. Gorsuch definitely would not have been confirmed and Kennedy might have waited another year (in which case, we'd still probably end up with Kavanaugh). If we had won back the Senate in 2016, I'm not sure we would've held it going into 2018 (though it would certainly be possible).


Getting Garland up there alone would have prevented the right to abortion being abrogated and the potential further disincorporation of the 4th amendment. Maybe if Kennedy still retired, they could have gotten someone like Hardimann or whatever his name is. He probably would have had very similar rulings to Kennedy. We still would have gotten ACB even if we still ended up with Jones and was able to save Nelson. That would only get us to 50-50 with Pence breaking the tie. Still though. Dobbs would of had Roberts and Hardimann writing the opinion instead of Alito.

But who knows? If Udall, Begich, and Hagan survived, maybe Dems would be able to get Srinivasan in there instead of ACB if  any of Feingold, McGinity, and Kander delivered.

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #26 on: November 24, 2022, 09:08:48 AM »

This is the most accurate pollster they predicted a Johnson/Evers split and could very well poll the next KY and WVA poll, neither are DOOMED until a poll comes out showing Rs ahead
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #27 on: November 25, 2022, 05:08:40 AM »

If Warnock wins, which is likely... Whitmer/Warnock '28?

That would be an amazing ticket!
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #28 on: November 27, 2022, 08:05:30 PM »

direct link

https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/surveys_statistics/politics/2022/aarp-georgia-2022-elections-senate-runoff-voter-survey.doi.10.26419-2Fres.00550.028.pdf
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politicallefty
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« Reply #29 on: November 28, 2022, 02:12:10 AM »

I would argue that the democrats themselves are to blame for those huge losses.

The GOP did not win big in 2010 and in 2014 simply because they got  massive turnout they won big because the Dems decided to stay home and not even come out to vote at all. I hate to say it, but the Dems deciding not to vote in those Obama era midterms is the reason why Roe v Wade is now dead today..


Thankfully, unlike in 2010 Dems in 2022 knew full well that there would be horrible consequences if they just stayed home and let a bunch radical election denier gain full control over all of congress

All valid points. In essence though, both midterms showed how unreliable the Obama coalition was. They came out for him, but that was it. I think Trump's coalition was similar in that respect. I'm not sure the Senate could've been saved in 2014. That was an awful map. However, if Democrats had been able to hold CO, NC, and AK, they would've controlled the Senate after 2016. Gorsuch definitely would not have been confirmed and Kennedy might have waited another year (in which case, we'd still probably end up with Kavanaugh). If we had won back the Senate in 2016, I'm not sure we would've held it going into 2018 (though it would certainly be possible).


Getting Garland up there alone would have prevented the right to abortion being abrogated and the potential further disincorporation of the 4th amendment. Maybe if Kennedy still retired, they could have gotten someone like Hardimann or whatever his name is. He probably would have had very similar rulings to Kennedy. We still would have gotten ACB even if we still ended up with Jones and was able to save Nelson. That would only get us to 50-50 with Pence breaking the tie. Still though. Dobbs would of had Roberts and Hardimann writing the opinion instead of Alito.

But who knows? If Udall, Begich, and Hagan survived, maybe Dems would be able to get Srinivasan in there instead of ACB if  any of Feingold, McGinity, and Kander delivered.

At the risk of puling a bit more at the tapestry, Schumer controlling the Senate in 2017 in opposition to a Trump Presidency might've changed the adversarial relationship that developed (at least at first). We'd be fresh off the heels of McConnell having blocked Garland for almost a year. The filibuster would still be intact for Supreme Court nominations. Trump would've had to send over someone who was both acceptable to Schumer and the Democratic Majority, as well as a decent number of Republicans. Democrats would've had to give up on Garland, but Republicans wouldn't be getting an anti-Roe FedSoc ideologue. Maybe someone like Amy St. Eve?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #30 on: November 28, 2022, 07:01:24 PM »

If Warnock wins, which is likely... Whitmer/Warnock '28?

That would be an amazing ticket!

It is, but I don't think Warnock being snatched from his Senate seat (unless a Democrat actually takes the governorship in Georgia in 2026) is worth it.

Instead I propose Whitmer/Moore, it might have less risk to it.
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