PA-Commonwealth Partners: DeSantis +5

[Fargobison]

Ron DeSantis - 45%
Donald Trump - 40%

https://www.dropbox.com/s/mesxnqmgepi9li4/PA%20Statewide%20Survey%20Top%20Line%20Results%20November%2022,%202022.pdf?dl=0

[2016]

Wow, DeSantis hasn't even announced and he is leading in almost every State Poll!!!

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I wish it was true but I don't think so. The northeast is Trump's base (in a GOP primary). If this was remotely true he should be at 30% and below in most of the country.

[Enduro]

Wonderful news.

[Fargobison]

I wish it was true but I don't think so. The northeast is Trump's base (in a GOP primary). If this was remotely true he should be at 30% and below in most of the country.

Trump has a high floor and a low ceilling. Get him in a head to head match up against somebody the rest of the party can get behind and he is going to lose a lot of states, once he starts losing his base will break. Of course getting that right candidate and match up is easier said than done, DeSantis could be the real deal or the next Scott Walker.

[Medal506]

I wish it was true but I don't think so. The northeast is Trump's base (in a GOP primary). If this was remotely true he should be at 30% and below in most of the country.

Trump has a high floor and a low ceilling. Get him in a head to head match up against somebody the rest of the party can get behind and he is going to lose a lot of states, once he starts losing his base will break. Of course getting that right candidate and match up is easier said than done, DeSantis could be the real deal or the next Scott Walker.

Walker had zero personality and zero charisma

[Sir Mohamed]

I dunno, I feel like DeSantis' nomination might actually happen. Perhaps it's just too early in the cycle, though it seems like Mr. Trump's campaign hardly exists and nobody really cares.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I wish it was true but I don't think so. The northeast is Trump's base (in a GOP primary). If this was remotely true he should be at 30% and below in most of the country.

Is Trump’s base still the North East though as keep in mind a huge reason for that is Trump did best in 2016 with “moderate Republicans” and not “hardcore conservatives”. The reason for this was :


1. In 2016 Trump was basically this unknown wildcard while now that is no longer the case 

2. The main competitor to Trump for the nomination was Ted Cruz who was running as a die hard tea party conservative . DeSantis is not Ted Cruz

3. Trump in 2016 actually was running on stuff he wanted to do rather than running on election denialism

[MT Treasurer]

If their 2022 underperformance actually causes Trump to lose the nomination (too early to tell, but he’s definitely way more vulnerable than in October 2022) and allows Republicans to prevent a complete blowout defeat in 2024 (and with it an even more humiliating underperformance in the Senate/House races than in 2022), it was probably one of the very few election losses that was actually worth it if not necessary for the losing party in the long/medium term, esp. since Republicans will have the House as a check on the administration's most liberal policy proposals.

It’s still very bad for a more conservative judiciary, of course, but there’s virtually no way they don’t get the Senate in 2024 if they flip the White House (or only lose very narrowly).

[Medal506]

I wish it was true but I don't think so. The northeast is Trump's base (in a GOP primary). If this was remotely true he should be at 30% and below in most of the country.

Is Trump’s base still the North East though as keep in mind a huge reason for that is Trump did best in 2016 with “moderate Republicans” and not “hardcore conservatives”. The reason for this was :


1. In 2016 Trump was basically this unknown wildcard while now that is no longer the case 

2. The main competitor to Trump for the nomination was Ted Cruz who was running as a die hard tea party conservative . DeSantis is not Ted Cruz

3. Trump in 2016 actually was running on stuff he wanted to do rather than running on election denialism

DeSantis is the Ted Cruz of 2024. He is stronger than Cruz is though.

[Ljube]

If their 2022 underperformance actually causes Trump to lose the nomination (too early to tell, but he’s definitely way more vulnerable than in October 2022) and allows Republicans to prevent a complete blowout defeat in 2024 (and with it an even more humiliating underperformance in the Senate/House races than in 2022), it was probably one of the very few election losses that was actually worth it if not necessary for the losing party in the long/medium term, esp. since Republicans will have the House as a check on the administration's most liberal policy proposals.

It’s still very bad for a more conservative judiciary, of course, but there’s virtually no way they don’t get the Senate in 2024 if they flip the White House (or only lose very narrowly).

We don't have to lose in 2024.
We can win with DeSantis.

And by the way, we are tired of losing.