Which state that voted for Obama and Trump twice do Democrats have the best chance at winning?

[Ferguson97]

I think the Republican nominee wins all of these, but if I'm forced to pick, then ME-02.

[Xing]

ME-02 is the only one I could see (narrowly) going Democratic if 2024 is a very good year for the Democrats (and even then, it might not.) The others are just too far gone.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

ME-02 is kind of cheating because its not a state, and CDs are easier to flip. I voted Ohio because it looks like Iowa is gone for the Dems, and Florida is getting there. Trump still easily wins Ohio in 2024, but its Biden's best shot compared to the other two states.

[Mr. Smith]

ME-02, followed by Florida [provided actual investment of course]

Ohiowa is gone.

[SN2903]

OH, FL and IA are all long gone for dems just like VA is long gone for the GOP.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

NC is probably easier to win then those 3 states.

[S019]

It is still Florida. I don't get why people are saying ME-02, it has all the makings of a place where Democrats are likely to collapse further.

[BlueSwan]

1. ME-02
2. Florida
3. Ohio
4. Iowa

All of these are longshots at best though. And they depend on candidates. If Ron DeSantis is the GOP nominee I don't see how Dems win Florida. Ohio MIGHT be in play if the GOP picks am aristocratic fiscal conservative type and the Dems pick a Fetterman type, but that seems very unlikely. Iowa is probably just gone, unfortunately.

[Spectator]

ME-02 followed by Florida and Ohio, but even Trump probably wins all those. DeSantis easily. Iowa is long gone.

The likeliest 2x Trump states to flip are NC, TX and AK in that order, and are far more likely than any of the above.

[seskoog]

1. ME-02
2. OH
3. FL
4. IA
If you asked me this two months ago, FL would have been above ME-02 and OH. But ME-02 and OH actually had their generic ballots swing left this year, while IA's generic ballot both swung and trended right relative to the nation (obviously so did FL's)

[President Johnson]

ME-02, obviously, though technically that's not a "state". I'm not sure between Ohio and Florida anymore, though Iowa is the least likely of them. Which is actually kind of crazy since it voted for Dukakis and Gore as well.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

All the others are a lost cause

[ProgressiveModerate]

ME-02 is small and relatively homogenous meaning it tends to be prone to larger swings between cycles. Overall, I think Rs are strong favorites in all 4 though.

[Mr. Smith]

ME-02, obviously, though technically that's not a "state". I'm not sure between Ohio and Florida anymore, though Iowa is the least likely of them. Which is actually kind of crazy since it voted for Dukakis and Gore as well.

Not for JFK or Carter.