When, if ever, will Montgomery County TX vote Dem?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

2004: 78.11% Bush
2008: 75.76% McCain
2012: 79.51% Romney
2016: 73.00% Trump
2018: 72.28% Cruz
2020: 71.22% Trump
2022: 73.39% Abbott

On its face, it seems fairly similar to a place like Forsyth County GA, but it has not trended Dem with the same strength. There may be various reasons for the difference, such as the influence of the oil industry, but the difference seems pretty striking.

It keeps growing and growing though... It is one of the largest counties (if not the largest?) in the country that still puts up these types of lopsided margins for Republican candidates.

Even though Houston has trended less Dem than other major southern metros like DFW, Atlanta, and Austin-San Antonio, there has been a stronger trend in other counties like Fort bend, with more minority population growth in that case.

Anyway, as of now, Montgomery County seems to be pretty resistant to the general national trend in suburbia. How long can/will that last? What would it actually take for Montgomery to flip?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I don’t think it will unless there starts to be dramatic shifts

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Montgomery County is more akin to an exurban county than a suburban one.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Montgomery County is more akin to an exurban county than a suburban one.

Yeah, but isn't Forsyth similar in that way? I always thought of the northern part of Forsyth (GA) county as basically exurban or even rural, quite similar to the northern part of Montgomery (TX). That is actually why I mentioned Forsyth as a comparison in the original post. They both also even have reservoirs/lakes in the northern exurban bit.

So another way to phrase the question I was trying to ask is why is Montgomery not trending more similarly to Forsyth and similar sorts of counties?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Montgomery County is more akin to an exurban county than a suburban one.

Yeah, but isn't Forsyth similar in that way? I always thought of the northern part of Forsyth (GA) county as basically exurban or even rural, quite similar to the northern part of Montgomery (TX). That is actually why I mentioned Forsyth as a comparison in the original post. They both also even have reservoirs/lakes in the northern exurban bit.

So another way to phrase the question I was trying to ask is why is Montgomery not trending more similarly to Forsyth and similar sorts of counties?

Not at all a bad comparison, and I agree.
I guess the answer is that Montgomery County doesn't seem to be drawing liberal-voting demographics to it (unlike Forsyth). And not only are trends far weaker for Dems in metro Houston than in metro Atlanta, but the kinds of liberal migrants you see are far likelier to end up elsewhere in the wider metropolitan area (such as West Houston, for example). This leaves Montgomery County untouched by whatever bad trends afflict Rs in the area, however weak they may be.

There's also the possibility that the fossil fuel voting could be helping Rs considerably in the vicinity and here as well, but any such impact would be stronger in places like Galveston County (home to refineries and such).

Not at all an accident many TX Rs talk about "all of the above" energy development.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It's worth pointing out that Montgomery County voted more Democratic than Forsyth from 2000 to 2012 (possibly because it had a higher share of ethnoracial minorities, mostly Hispanics). Forsyth was pretty much monolithically White from when it drove out all of its Black population in 1912 to a quarter century ago but in the last two decades and especially the last one it has seen a huge influx of Asian people in particular (Montgomery has also been getting more diverse - but not as suddenly) and its leftward divergence from other Southern exurbs and North Georgia tracks pretty well with this growth.

[ProgressiveModerate]

From what I understand, the County has a heavy oil industry influence, with many in higher level roles in buisness somehow connected to the industry living in Montgomery County.

I think what also makes Forsyth and Montgomery Counties different is the way in which the cities are developing. In Houston, you have several ring roads which sort of "enclose" the minority populations so you have a very stark dropoff to the north, with most of the fastest growing diverse suburbs to the southwest and west of the city.

As a consequence, Montgomery County's development is still extremely white and hence more conservative leaning.

The outer parts of Montgomery County are also decently populated, despite being pretty removed from Houston's influence, which also makes it harder to flip.

It'll certainly be a while, and would likely require at least one of 3:

-A massive change in coalitions nationally
-Waning oil industry influence
-Black and Hispanic communities in northern Harris County to break through several layers of ring-roads.

[Smash255]

One of the biggest factors in recent trends has been education and there is a pretty wide gap between the two.  For those 25+ Montgomery County has 36.4% with a Bachelor's degree, Forsyth on the other hand is at 55.9%.