Will Hillsborough County still be D+7?

[lfromnj]

Hillsborough County Fl covers Tampa and its suburbs.  It voted for Bill Clinton in 1996 but flipped back to Bush for 2000 and 2004. In 2004 it even went for Bush by around 7 points . How ever in 2008 it flipped to Obama for a margin of 7.1 points. Since then it has voted D+7 in every election since despite  internal trends.
2012 was D +6.7. 2016 saw a light Clinton swing  despite her loss and 2020 saw a very mild swing with the Eastern portion of the countys D trend cancelled out by a Cuban trend in the west. 2024 it doesn't seem like it should demographically trend anywhere but a FL Dem collapse could finally change the margin.

[emailking]

Interesting history it has there. I voted option 3.

[Skill and Chance]

Not likely.  I expect Dem resources will be pulled out of Florida in a pretty dramatic way, especially if DeSantis is the nominee.  Hillsborough will probably be very close.

[2016]

Not likely.  I expect Dem resources will be pulled out of Florida in a pretty dramatic way, especially if DeSantis is the nominee.  Hillsborough will probably be very close.

Even if Trump is the Nominee I don't think Biden & the DNC will contest Florida. The State has moved too far to the right and is just waaay to expensive given the Media Markets the State has.

Republicans currently hold a 305,000 Registration Advantage over Democrats. Unless by some miracle Democrats are able to change that Florida is GONE for 2024.
Biden by the way proved in 2020 that Democrats can win the Presidency without Florida, Ohio and Texas.
If they continue to win States that trending their way with GA, AZ and quite possibly NC in 2024 they do not need FL, OH, IA, and TX.

New FL Registration Statistics will be out tomorrow or Wednesday and then we'll see if D's made any inroads from Oct. 12 to Oct. 31.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interesting question as it has remained remarkably stable for quite some time.

The first thing I'll say is that DeSantis/Rubio 2022 performance is unlikely to be replicated in 2024. A lot of the reason it swung so hard right was from brutal turnout in heavily black/Hispanic areas of downtown which won't be the case come 2024, though in the right circumstances I could still see an R nominee for Pres narrowly carrying it.

As OP pointed out, the county has a pretty significant Cuban population that tends to swing towards incumbents, but given the 2022 results, it seems like it may actually swing more against Biden.

It's also hard to tell who exactly growth favors here. Tampa, especially the downtown area is spawning a lot of higher-level white-collar jobs and stuff, and the County is becoming more diverse, but you also have a lot of retirees along the outskirts and Tampa tends to just attract a more conservative pool even of those how are younger and college educated.

My guess is in 2024, the County swings slightly right, but only slightly as there are a lot of moving parts at play within the County that I'm skeptical a huge swing between full turnout cycles is possible.

[seskoog]

I think Hillsborough County will be less D, but not outright vote R. I think will vote between D+1 and D+3 in 2024. (I think the final result statewide will be a close to a uniform swing of 10 points left from FL-Sen 2022 on the low end to a uniform swing of 10 points left from FL-Gov 2022 on the high end).

[2016]

Interesting question as it has remained remarkably stable for quite some time.

The first thing I'll say is that DeSantis/Rubio 2022 performance is unlikely to be replicated in 2024. A lot of the reason it swung so hard right was from brutal turnout in heavily black/Hispanic areas of downtown which won't be the case come 2024, though in the right circumstances I could still see an R nominee for Pres narrowly carrying it.

As OP pointed out, the county has a pretty significant Cuban population that tends to swing towards incumbents, but given the 2022 results, it seems like it may actually swing more against Biden.

It's also hard to tell who exactly growth favors here. Tampa, especially the downtown area is spawning a lot of higher-level white-collar jobs and stuff, and the County is becoming more diverse, but you also have a lot of retirees along the outskirts and Tampa tends to just attract a more conservative pool even of those how are younger and college educated.

My guess is in 2024, the County swings slightly right, but only slightly as there are a lot of moving parts at play within the County that I'm skeptical a huge swing between full turnout cycles is possible.

What makes you believe the heavily Hispanic/African-American Areas will come up again in 2024?
Better Democratic Turnout in Hillsborough will only come up in two years time if Biden and the DNC actually contest the State which they have no intention of doing given that they can win the Presidency without it by winning AZ, GA and have NC as backup if they lose either WI or MI.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interesting question as it has remained remarkably stable for quite some time.

The first thing I'll say is that DeSantis/Rubio 2022 performance is unlikely to be replicated in 2024. A lot of the reason it swung so hard right was from brutal turnout in heavily black/Hispanic areas of downtown which won't be the case come 2024, though in the right circumstances I could still see an R nominee for Pres narrowly carrying it.

As OP pointed out, the county has a pretty significant Cuban population that tends to swing towards incumbents, but given the 2022 results, it seems like it may actually swing more against Biden.

It's also hard to tell who exactly growth favors here. Tampa, especially the downtown area is spawning a lot of higher-level white-collar jobs and stuff, and the County is becoming more diverse, but you also have a lot of retirees along the outskirts and Tampa tends to just attract a more conservative pool even of those how are younger and college educated.

My guess is in 2024, the County swings slightly right, but only slightly as there are a lot of moving parts at play within the County that I'm skeptical a huge swing between full turnout cycles is possible.

What makes you believe the heavily Hispanic/African-American Areas will come up again in 2024?
Better Democratic Turnout in Hillsborough will only come up in two years time if Biden and the DNC actually contest the State which they have no intention of doing given that they can win the Presidency without it by winning AZ, GA and have NC as backup if they lose either WI or MI.

By default in Pres years you tend to have more even turnout dynamics than off cycles, and regardless of whether Dems invest in certain communities or not, it’s a pretty known tule of thumb that minority turnout tends to drop in midterm cycles.