GA-SEN Runoff (Phillips Academy): Walker +1

[wbrocks67]

The other high school kids are back

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1597240598733344768

[wbrocks67]

They are seriously high on their own supply touting "100% record on senate races" when they were off a LOT everywhere (they had Kari Lake +11 in AZ and Sisolak +5 in NV)

https://andoverpoll.com/2022/11/21/phillips-academys-perfect-record/

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Phillips Academy sounds like the name of an educational institution, not a pollster (not that you can't be both at the same time).

[Roll Roons]

Phillips Academy sounds like the name of an educational institution, not a pollster (not that you can't be both at the same time).

It's one of the top boarding schools in the country.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Phillips Academy sounds like the name of an educational institution, not a pollster (not that you can't be both at the same time).

It's one of the top boarding schools in the country.

Not surprised.

[KaiserDave]

I do not care.

[wbrocks67]

I do not care.

you should update your sig with a new screenshot, Shapiro is up to 56.5% now

[Gass3268]

One of the messages from this election was don’t believe trash polling and the legacy pollsters did pretty well.

[UncleSam]

They are seriously high on their own supply touting "100% record on senate races" when they were off a LOT everywhere (they had Kari Lake +11 in AZ and Sisolak +5 in NV)

https://andoverpoll.com/2022/11/21/phillips-academys-perfect-record/

I mean I don’t blame a small pollster for releasing a little blurb about correctly predicting the winner in all of the senate races - that’s a pretty impressive feat no matter what the caveats are.

I also give them credit for owning / stating up front what races they missed. You never see traditional pollsters do that.

With all of that being said they were off on the margin somewhat badly in a bunch of races and calling the winner in the senate races seems a bit more like luck than anything else, so all this poll really tells us is that this is a MOE race that could go either way, which most already know.

[Sir Mohamed]

Press X for doubt.

Also, isn't GA one of the states in which Dems tend to overperform polling numbers? Was the case in 2020 and again in 2022 (at least for senate; polls got Kemp's margin right).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

They are seriously high on their own supply touting "100% record on senate races" when they were off a LOT everywhere (they had Kari Lake +11 in AZ and Sisolak +5 in NV)

https://andoverpoll.com/2022/11/21/phillips-academys-perfect-record/

I mean I don’t blame a small pollster for releasing a little blurb about correctly predicting the winner in all of the senate races - that’s a pretty impressive feat no matter what the caveats are.

I also give them credit for owning / stating up front what races they missed. You never see traditional pollsters do that.

With all of that being said they were off on the margin somewhat badly in a bunch of races and calling the winner in the senate races seems a bit more like luck than anything else, so all this poll really tells us is that this is a MOE race that could go either way, which most already know.

I would not blame them for touting that either.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Their only previous GA-SEN poll was in August, so pretty old, and had Walker+2.  Their Senate polls closer to the election mostly underestimated Democrats, except in Nevada.  They had:

Hassan+4
Kelly+1
Fetterman+2
CCM+2

And as noted above, some of their governor results were way off.

[wbrocks67]

The biggest red flag here is they have Walker winning Independents.

[Mike88]

They did just one poll for the first round, in August, and Walker lead 45-44% over Warnock.

[Holmes]

These stupid high school polls should be banned.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have the Sen majority anyways, I am not that worried but it's MOE

[Sestak]

Lake Plus Eleven

[roxas11]

At this point I don't take any poll all that seriously anymore. Don't get me wrong, they are still fun to talk about, but it's now very clear that are just not as useful as they used to be

If the last election has taught us anything, it is that all polling is basically pointless until pollsters can actually figure out how to get generation z to accept a call from an unknown number lol

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1597318860918910977

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WRONG

[Xing]

48% might be spot on for Walker’s percentage of the vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It looks like this will be the only runoff poll to show Walker in the lead.

[Person Man]

It looks like this will be the only runoff poll to show Walker in the lead.

This was Masters’s best poll. I think Warnock, Fetterman, and Kelly will be very close with their margins.

[wbrocks67]

Welp, that 100% "senate record" is no longer and they flopped once again. Nice try and valiant effort, but reputable polling aggregators should not be including them any longer.