House Results without Gerrymandering

[Pres Mike]

What does the state delegations map look like?

Right now its 22-26-2

Democrats control 22 state delegations. Republicans control 26. MN and NC are equal.

Perhaps AZ stays a Democratic delegation? Perhaps IA is split?

In the event of a 269-269 electoral tie, the House votes. You would need 26 state delegations so it might be wise for Democrats to try win MT-1, denying Republicans 26 delegations.

I suspect after the 2030 census, Georgia might have a split delegation. With Atlanta's explosive growth, it would be hard to gerrymander that city.

[Hope For A New Era]

AR: Little Rock/Pine Bluff and eastern rurals is possibly winnable for Democrats, or maybe they collapse like in other black belt seats. The classic Central AR seat probably is off the table for 2022.

This is a Biden+8 district. Looks pretty winnable to me.

[Tekken_Guy]

AR: Little Rock/Pine Bluff and eastern rurals is possibly winnable for Democrats, or maybe they collapse like in other black belt seats. The classic Central AR seat probably is off the table for 2022.

This is a Biden+8 district. Looks pretty winnable to me.

Did SHS win it?

[Hope For A New Era]

AR: Little Rock/Pine Bluff and eastern rurals is possibly winnable for Democrats, or maybe they collapse like in other black belt seats. The classic Central AR seat probably is off the table for 2022.

This is a Biden+8 district. Looks pretty winnable to me.

Did SHS win it?

no

[Tekken_Guy]

AR: Little Rock/Pine Bluff and eastern rurals is possibly winnable for Democrats, or maybe they collapse like in other black belt seats. The classic Central AR seat probably is off the table for 2022.

This is a Biden+8 district. Looks pretty winnable to me.

Did SHS win it?

no

How about Boozman?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What does the state delegations map look like?

19D-26R-5T

I gave Dems one more district in Texas based on politicallefty's comments, and I assigned the two uncertain Dem seats to SC and NE rather than CO and VA for the sake of geographic diversity. Still, despite gaining 6 seats, Democrats actually fare much worse in terms of state delegations due to RI, NV and OR ending up tied.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I would not assume Fung wins. It's probably reasonable to demand no town splits, and it is hard to draw a no town split map where Fung does well enough to get a genuine swing district.

[Hope For A New Era]

AR: Little Rock/Pine Bluff and eastern rurals is possibly winnable for Democrats, or maybe they collapse like in other black belt seats. The classic Central AR seat probably is off the table for 2022.

This is a Biden+8 district. Looks pretty winnable to me.

[image snipped]

Did SHS win it?

[image snipped]

no

How about Boozman?

Boozman+2 or 5142 votes. It's worth noting though that the difference comes almost entirely from Pulaski, not from the river counties. If you "adjust" Pulaski to the same percentage margins as in the governor race, James wins by 9304 votes. Jones wins the district by 14452 votes.
So at that point it's a question of (here come the Atlas buzzwords) suburban trends and candidate quality.

[lfromnj]

What does the state delegations map look like?

19D-26R-5T

I gave Dems one more district in Texas based on politicallefty's comments, and I assigned the two uncertain Dem seats to SC and NE rather than CO and VA for the sake of geographic diversity. Still, despite gaining 6 seats, Democrats actually fare much worse in terms of state delegations due to RI, NV and OR ending up tied.

Did you not read an explanation on Rhode Island? Try drawing a Providence based seat, the outer seat won't be much more R because it now has to take in high turnout Democratic coastal areas and it loses Cranston which is the area Fung improved the best .

[Pres Mike]

What does the state delegations map look like?

19D-26R-5T

I gave Dems one more district in Texas based on politicallefty's comments, and I assigned the two uncertain Dem seats to SC and NE rather than CO and VA for the sake of geographic diversity. Still, despite gaining 6 seats, Democrats actually fare much worse in terms of state delegations due to RI, NV and OR ending up tied.

Fascinating 

A 269-269 is unlikely after the 2020 census but not impossible

If Republicans flipped GA, AZ, NV and NE-2 than it’s 269. But it’s unlikely Nevada would flip before Wisconsin

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What does the state delegations map look like?

19D-26R-5T

I gave Dems one more district in Texas based on politicallefty's comments, and I assigned the two uncertain Dem seats to SC and NE rather than CO and VA for the sake of geographic diversity. Still, despite gaining 6 seats, Democrats actually fare much worse in terms of state delegations due to RI, NV and OR ending up tied.

Did you not read an explanation on Rhode Island? Try drawing a Providence based seat, the outer seat won't be much more R because it now has to take in high turnout Democratic coastal areas and it loses Cranston which is the area Fung improved the best .

It's possible to draw a district where Fung would be favored in 2022. But this isn't a non-partisan map, this is a Republican gerrymander.
EDIT: I checked OurCampaigns and R House candidates won here by about 5k votes in 2022 (so a margin of about 2.5%).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I'm actually working with a few other professors at my school in engineering and geospatial information to simulate optimized congressional districts using a hill-climbing algorithm under different objectives. 

One of our projects looks at compactness-maximizing gerrymanders vs. partisan-maximizing gerrymanders (as well as mixes of these and other objectives).  We are going to submit much more detailed results of this for academic publication early next year. But here are the average number of Republican seats we've found for each state: (We didn't do states with only 2 CDs, and we had to skip KY for the time being because of lack of precinct data availability.)

State   Compact   Democrat   Republican   
AL      6.5      5.3      7.0
AR      3.9      3.3      4.0
AZ      5.2      3.8      6.5
CA      9.2      3.2      12.9
CO      3.6      1.9      4.6
CT      0.9      0.3      1.4
FL      16.8      13.2      20.4
GA      9.3      5.7      11.3
IA      3.0      2.5      3.6
IL      6.3      4.1      7.1
IN      7.2      6.4      8.9
KS      3.3      3.0      3.9
LA      5.2      4.1      5.9
MA      0.4      0.0      0.8
MD      1.9      0.0      3.0
MI      8.0      5.4      9.6
MN      4.4      2.9      5.6
MO      5.8      5.0      7.0
MS      3.3      2.7      3.9
NC      8.2      5.8      10.4
NE      2.6      2.2      3.0
NJ      3.5      1.5      4.8
NM      1.0      0.7      1.7
NV      1.8      1.7      2.4
NY      8.1      4.7      10.2
OH      10.3      7.9      12.9
OK      4.9      4.6      5.0
OR      2.4      1.1      3.3
PA      10.6      8.1      12.7
SC      5.5      4.6      6.7
TN      7.3      6.8      8.5
TX      22.2      16.3      29.9
UT      3.3      2.9      4.0
VA      4.6      3.0      5.9
WA      3.6      1.7      4.6
WI      5.2      3.7      5.8

In total, Republicans win 209 out of 409 districts under the compactness maps, 150 under the Democrat maps, and 259 under the Republican maps.  This is not simulating the 2022 environment, but an historically average range of national environments.  It also is -only- optimizing for the specific objective (plus population equality and contiguity), so there's no consideration for VRA districts (that's another project we already have under review) or other traditional districting criteria.

I can post some sample maps if people are interested.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Did you not read an explanation on Rhode Island? Try drawing a Providence based seat, the outer seat won't be much more R because it now has to take in high turnout Democratic coastal areas and it loses Cranston which is the area Fung improved the best .

Sorry I don't read the entirety of your posts I guess? You have plenty of takes I disagree with so I'd have my pick of things to argue but I'm not that interested in getting into the weeds right now. You might be right about RI, I guess. I haven't looked at various options on DRA. You can make your map if you want to.

[Sol]

snip

This is very cool!

Petty disagreement and nitpicking, apologies.

PA: I think Deluzio probably loses since a better map gives him Butler and much much less of Allegheny.

VA: IMO Virginia is the best map this cycle. The actual result is the ideal ungerrymandered outcome. A world where Luria wins probably means a slightly worse map given the amount she lost by.

NC: Agree with lfromnj here, on a better map Republicans probably net one out of neater lines in the Charlotte area.

TX: I don't have enough time in my life to think over Texas results, but I think you might be underestimating Democratic gains given how well geography works for Texas Democrats. Maybe more like D+4

IN: There are ungerrymandered maps of Indiana where you get an extra Biden seat out of the Northern Indianapolis suburbs, and other ungerrymandered maps of Indiana where you do not. I guess it can replace VA as a mixed/uncertain bag.

IL: Similar deal imo, Democrats get nothing downstate of course but a lot depends on the Chicagoland lines. IMO Democrats probably just lose two but I think there are fair maps where it would be 3.

MI: I think Republicans probably keep MI-03 without Grand Rapids-Muskegon.

OR: There's a shot of Republicans winning DeFazio's seat, though as has been discussed to death a lot depends on how you split Jackson County, which is basically a judgement call.

I think it's basically the same?