Florida is the most likely pickup. I'll be contrarian and say that it's a mistake to interpret the Democratic Party's recent slide with Latinos in Florida as part of some long-run trend or terminal decline. Up until 2020, Democrats had been gaining strength with Cubans and South Americans in Miami in every election. There is a real possibility of Democrats recovering, perhaps in a profound way, that I wouldn't write-off, even if I think it's unlikely.
I read that Florida Hispanics turned against Democrats because Republicans constantly accuse them of being socialists and communists. But isn't this happening for the last 50-60 years? Why did they start to believe it only after 2018?
My theory is that Sanders and AOC and co. took on a more prominent role in the party in 2020 in a way where there weren’t very many visible socialists in the party before. Otherwise you’re right. There’s no other explanation for why all of a sudden the message started resonating more than before.
I’d imagine that not just the Sanders/Squad factor but also, the contrast with the Trump administration’s policies against Venezuela in particular, and FL Republicans + the Trump campaign’s highlighting of those policies, all played a big role in 2018 and 2020.
Oh, and we can’t forget the Trump-era economy and, in 2020, the pandemic and the response to it by each party; pretty clear which party’s messaging and policies on COVID resonated more among Florida voters in general (but very much including Latinos).
