Outside Texas, do Dems have any realistic Senate pickup opportunities?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Srs all you have is Florida and then a bunch of Trump 15%+ states.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Democrats really blew it in recent races

WI in 2022. Maine and NC in 2020.

I’ll give them a pass on WI 2022 given how well they did in other close races this year.  ME 2020 remains inexcusable given Biden’s margin and Gideon’s polling lead.  Biden needed to come in and campaign for Gideon or at least cut ads for her to get more of his voters to vote against Collins.

Tbf for every heartbreak for Dems (FL-2018, ME-2020, WI-2022), there’s a heartbreak for the gop (NH-2016, GA-2020, NV-2022). Overall it evens out. Statistically close races should break evenly across 3 cycles basically no matter what. Rmbr the only reason Dems controlled the Senate these past 2 years was thanks to 1000 NH folks.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Even assuming there is some Democratic recovery among Florida Latinos I don’t think they’ll be able to out-pace the growth of the retiree and other conservative white vote there under Governor DeSantis and of course the ultimate NY-to-FL retiree, the 45th President himself.

Its reputation as a conservative state is self-perpetuating at this point.

I almost wonder if all the media around Florida actually subconsciously affects migration patterns. Liberal folks just don't consider it when they're moving because it's "Florida", the same way a lot of conservatives would never move to California, even if it's not a hardest rule in their brains.