MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« on: November 29, 2022, 12:16:57 PM » |
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« edited: November 29, 2022, 12:56:55 PM by MT Treasurer, Axed with Lax »
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UT is the only deep red seat I’d rate Likely instead of Safe R. It seems remotely/vaguely within reach if the Republican vote is split between Romney and a serious conservative third-party/independent challenger and 2024 is a very favorable year for Democrats. Alternatively but probably less likely, Romney loses the nomination to a more 'extreme' challenger who faces a ('quietly' Democratic-endorsed) 'independent' in the GE. Reminder that UT was nearly a single-digit race this year!
I also think the Democratic floor in UT is probably very close to 40% these days.
In FL, I expect Rick Scott to underperform generic R (he’s exactly the type of candidate who’s a lot more formidable as a challenger than as an incumbent Senator/chief executive/chairman), but I strongly doubt the votes are there for a Democrat to flip the seat in 2024. If DeSantis is the Republican nominee for President, I don’t see any way the seat flips even with Scott (or Gaetz, honestly).
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