Outside Texas, do Dems have any realistic Senate pickup opportunities?
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  Outside Texas, do Dems have any realistic Senate pickup opportunities?
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Author Topic: Outside Texas, do Dems have any realistic Senate pickup opportunities?  (Read 1400 times)
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #25 on: November 29, 2022, 07:50:13 AM »

Democrats really blew it in recent races

WI in 2022. Maine and NC in 2020.

I’ll give them a pass on WI 2022 given how well they did in other close races this year.  ME 2020 remains inexcusable given Biden’s margin and Gideon’s polling lead.  Biden needed to come in and campaign for Gideon or at least cut ads for her to get more of his voters to vote against Collins.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #26 on: November 29, 2022, 10:05:04 AM »

Democrats really blew it in recent races

WI in 2022. Maine and NC in 2020.

I’ll give them a pass on WI 2022 given how well they did in other close races this year.  ME 2020 remains inexcusable given Biden’s margin and Gideon’s polling lead.  Biden needed to come in and campaign for Gideon or at least cut ads for her to get more of his voters to vote against Collins.

Tbf for every heartbreak for Dems (FL-2018, ME-2020, WI-2022), there’s a heartbreak for the gop (NH-2016, GA-2020, NV-2022). Overall it evens out. Statistically close races should break evenly across 3 cycles basically no matter what. Rmbr the only reason Dems controlled the Senate these past 2 years was thanks to 1000 NH folks.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #27 on: November 29, 2022, 11:13:44 AM »

Florida is the most likely pickup. I'll be contrarian and say that it's a mistake to interpret the Democratic Party's recent slide with Latinos in Florida as part of some long-run trend or terminal decline. Up until 2020, Democrats had been gaining strength with Cubans and South Americans in Miami in every election. There is a real possibility of Democrats recovering, perhaps in a profound way, that I wouldn't write-off, even if I think it's unlikely.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #28 on: November 29, 2022, 11:51:02 AM »

Florida is realistic in that it is mathematically possible in a perfect storm (as many have pointed out the absurd FL margins in 2022 were largely differential turnout which shold be ameliorated in a presidential year) but TX is easily more realistic, especially against Cruz, and I'd go so far as to say that Florida should basically be triaged in favor of Texas in this election and also more broadly.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #29 on: November 29, 2022, 12:08:02 PM »

Florida is the most likely pickup. I'll be contrarian and say that it's a mistake to interpret the Democratic Party's recent slide with Latinos in Florida as part of some long-run trend or terminal decline. Up until 2020, Democrats had been gaining strength with Cubans and South Americans in Miami in every election. There is a real possibility of Democrats recovering, perhaps in a profound way, that I wouldn't write-off, even if I think it's unlikely.

I read that Florida Hispanics turned against Democrats because Republicans constantly accuse them of being socialists and communists. But isn't this happening for the last 50-60 years? Why did they start to believe it only after 2018?
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Spectator
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« Reply #30 on: November 29, 2022, 12:15:18 PM »

Florida is the most likely pickup. I'll be contrarian and say that it's a mistake to interpret the Democratic Party's recent slide with Latinos in Florida as part of some long-run trend or terminal decline. Up until 2020, Democrats had been gaining strength with Cubans and South Americans in Miami in every election. There is a real possibility of Democrats recovering, perhaps in a profound way, that I wouldn't write-off, even if I think it's unlikely.

I read that Florida Hispanics turned against Democrats because Republicans constantly accuse them of being socialists and communists. But isn't this happening for the last 50-60 years? Why did they start to believe it only after 2018?

My theory is that Sanders and AOC and co. took on a more prominent role in the party in 2020 in a way where there weren’t very many visible socialists in the party before. Otherwise you’re right. There’s no other explanation for why all of a sudden the message started resonating more than before.
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Vosem
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« Reply #31 on: November 29, 2022, 12:15:36 PM »

Florida is the most likely pickup. I'll be contrarian and say that it's a mistake to interpret the Democratic Party's recent slide with Latinos in Florida as part of some long-run trend or terminal decline. Up until 2020, Democrats had been gaining strength with Cubans and South Americans in Miami in every election. There is a real possibility of Democrats recovering, perhaps in a profound way, that I wouldn't write-off, even if I think it's unlikely.

I read that Florida Hispanics turned against Democrats because Republicans constantly accuse them of being socialists and communists. But isn't this happening for the last 50-60 years? Why did they start to believe it only after 2018?

Prior to the Sanders campaign in 2016 Democrats usually tried to defend themselves from this charge, you see.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #32 on: November 29, 2022, 12:16:57 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2022, 12:56:55 PM by MT Treasurer, Axed with Lax »

UT is the only deep red seat I’d rate Likely instead of Safe R. It seems remotely/vaguely within reach if the Republican vote is split between Romney and a serious conservative third-party/independent challenger and 2024 is a very favorable year for Democrats. Alternatively but probably less likely, Romney loses the nomination to a more 'extreme' challenger who faces a ('quietly' Democratic-endorsed) 'independent' in the GE. Reminder that UT was nearly a single-digit race this year!

I also think the Democratic floor in UT is probably very close to 40% these days.

In FL, I expect Rick Scott to underperform generic R (he’s exactly the type of candidate who’s a lot more formidable as a challenger than as an incumbent Senator/chief executive/chairman), but I strongly doubt the votes are there for a Democrat to flip the seat in 2024. If DeSantis is the Republican nominee for President, I don’t see any way the seat flips even with Scott (or Gaetz, honestly).
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #33 on: November 29, 2022, 05:23:14 PM »

Nuclear take: Louisiana special election, since John Kennedy will be running for Governor.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #34 on: November 30, 2022, 11:13:35 AM »

What year are we talking about?
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #35 on: November 30, 2022, 07:33:03 PM »

Even assuming there is some Democratic recovery among Florida Latinos I don’t think they’ll be able to out-pace the growth of the retiree and other conservative white vote there under Governor DeSantis and of course the ultimate NY-to-FL retiree, the 45th President himself.

Its reputation as a conservative state is self-perpetuating at this point.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #36 on: November 30, 2022, 07:48:25 PM »
« Edited: November 30, 2022, 07:53:53 PM by All Along The Watchtower »

Florida is the most likely pickup. I'll be contrarian and say that it's a mistake to interpret the Democratic Party's recent slide with Latinos in Florida as part of some long-run trend or terminal decline. Up until 2020, Democrats had been gaining strength with Cubans and South Americans in Miami in every election. There is a real possibility of Democrats recovering, perhaps in a profound way, that I wouldn't write-off, even if I think it's unlikely.

I read that Florida Hispanics turned against Democrats because Republicans constantly accuse them of being socialists and communists. But isn't this happening for the last 50-60 years? Why did they start to believe it only after 2018?

My theory is that Sanders and AOC and co. took on a more prominent role in the party in 2020 in a way where there weren’t very many visible socialists in the party before. Otherwise you’re right. There’s no other explanation for why all of a sudden the message started resonating more than before.

I’d imagine that not just the Sanders/Squad factor but also, the contrast with the Trump administration’s policies against Venezuela in particular, and FL Republicans + the Trump campaign’s highlighting of those policies, all played a big role in 2018 and 2020.

Oh, and we can’t forget the Trump-era economy and, in 2020, the pandemic and the response to it by each party; pretty clear which party’s messaging and policies on COVID resonated more among Florida voters in general (but very much including Latinos).
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #37 on: December 01, 2022, 10:43:18 PM »

Even assuming there is some Democratic recovery among Florida Latinos I don’t think they’ll be able to out-pace the growth of the retiree and other conservative white vote there under Governor DeSantis and of course the ultimate NY-to-FL retiree, the 45th President himself.

Its reputation as a conservative state is self-perpetuating at this point.

I almost wonder if all the media around Florida actually subconsciously affects migration patterns. Liberal folks just don't consider it when they're moving because it's "Florida", the same way a lot of conservatives would never move to California, even if it's not a hardest rule in their brains.
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One Term Floridian
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« Reply #38 on: December 01, 2022, 11:34:31 PM »


Lmao might as well run Harold Ford or Al Gore in TN too while we're at it
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S019
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« Reply #39 on: December 02, 2022, 02:06:00 AM »

Even assuming there is some Democratic recovery among Florida Latinos I don’t think they’ll be able to out-pace the growth of the retiree and other conservative white vote there under Governor DeSantis and of course the ultimate NY-to-FL retiree, the 45th President himself.

Its reputation as a conservative state is self-perpetuating at this point.

Yeah this is the problem, even if a Dem gets Clinton numbers in Dade again, those exurbs and retiree communities are very, very red. The best way for a Dem to win FL these days is via lopsided turnout (i.e. good turnout in the cities and poor turnout in the rurals and exurbs)
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