How would Ron DeSantis be received in Utah?

[Crumpets]

The conventional wisdom since 2016 has been that Trump seriously damaged the GOP brand in Utah, in large part thanks to his personality and general lack of values in line with Utah beyond appointing pro-life justices. The shifts against the GOP were probably exaggerated in 2016 thanks to McMullin's run and the 2012 candidate having been Mitt Romney, but his 2020 performance in the state was hardly a return to the norm.

DeSantis bills himself as a more personally appealing person than Trump, is more overtly religious, and still has the conservative bona fides that usually work well in Utah. But at the same time, Utah seems to be following the path of other western states leftward independently of Trump, and there seems to be a lot of questions about how much his appeal extends outside of Florida.

Personally, I'd go with option 2 (as I suspect most will).

[President Johnson]

Somewhere between #1 and #2, I guess.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Much better than Trump, but since Biden is the incumbent and the incumbent's percentage in a state rarely moves more than 5% from where they were four years ago, I would expect Biden to receive around the same amount of support but for DeSantis to pick up quite a bit from Trump. So something like 63-36 DeSantis.

[Make America Grumpy Again]

I'm guessing he'll get McCain type numbers in a 2012-type environment.

[TodayJunior]

60/38 ish. Democrats are slowly building a decent floor here.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

Slightly to quite a bit better than Trump

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think one misconception about UT is that D gains are because of Mormons shifting left/Trump being toxic to mormons. This may be true around the margins, but a huge reason is just that UT is becoming less Mormon. SLC in particular is very disconnected from Mormonism and has built Dems a decent floor in the state.

In 2022, Lee won by "only" 10 points despite being what many today would call a generic R (not to mention an incumbent). Tbf, he was running against an Independent with deep ties to the state, but it's not like non-Trump Rs are just worshipped in Utah.

I think DeSantis carries that state by about 20%; maybe a small bit of reversion but nothing significant.

[Ferguson97]

Option #2 for sure. Trump is part of the reason why Republicans have declined, but it's not the only reason.

[LabourJersey]

#2.

The GOP will struggle to get back to Bush/Romney levels of support among Utah Mormons because Mormons have high levels of social trust, and everything the GOP has done in the past ten years has made them appealing only to people who have low social trust.

Add to this the fact that Utah is diversifying due to Salt Lake's growth, I doubt we'll get back to those remarkable margins in Utah. DeSantis would do marginally better than Trump because Trump is probably the worst possible candidate for Utah.