Malaysia General Discussion (2022– ): He Finally Has the Numbers

[PSOL]

If Anwar survives another election and stays as PM, that would be impressive given the circumstances. It all depends if the economy gets better and the BN patronage network survives the next election.

[Joseph Cao]

So, earlier on the weekend the component parties of the unity government signed a broad memorandum of understanding, even more broad than the one PH signed with Ismail Sabri last year, which among other things includes a clause that binds MPs to vote the government's way on important votes called or else lose their seats. This is predictably raising some questions as to whether such a provision is legal (prevailing sentiment is that the anti-party hopping law gives it the necessary legal cover) but also made today's vote of confidence even more anti-climactic since it was done by voice vote.

The House also has a new speaker, former PKR MP Johari Abdul, who I wrote about previously:

P015 Sungai Petani: The largest city in Kedah anchors a seat that stretches into built-up areas to the west of the city center and through the fields between the Merbok and Muda rivers to the coast. Industry is as varied as you'd expect. State opposition leader Johari Abdul flipped this in the 2008 wave and like many others of his class has made it into a stronghold.
He's now giving way for his son, state PKR Youth chief and medical doctor Taufiq Johari, who will defend it against UMNO local division chief Shahanim Yusof, PPBM (formerly PKR) assemblyman and state exco member Robert Ling, PEJUANG heavyweight senator Marzuki Yahya, and a rando from Parti Rakyat Malaysia, the Japanese holdout of Malaysian socialist parties. Given the local stature of the challengers the most interesting thing is probably the race for second place. PH hold

I think this makes the first time a Speaker has presided over a Parliament in which their son is a sitting member.

[Joseph Cao]

PBM getting into the Christmas spirit by reviving the Larry and Zuraida show.

Zuraida crony and PBM deputy Haniza Talha is still trying to launch broadsides against party president Larry Sng and claims the party’s top leadership wants to get rid of him. Brought to you by the gang with political instincts so good that Zuraida lost her deposit despite expecting to win.

[jaichind]

PBM getting into the Christmas spirit by reviving the Larry and Zuraida show.

Zuraida crony and PBM deputy Haniza Talha is still trying to launch broadsides against party president Larry Sng and claims the party’s top leadership wants to get rid of him. Brought to you by the gang with political instincts so good that Zuraida lost her deposit despite expecting to win.

Does not Sng hold all the cards here?  He won his seat and is a MP while Zuraida lost her seat by massive margins.

[Joseph Cao]

PBM getting into the Christmas spirit by reviving the Larry and Zuraida show.

Zuraida crony and PBM deputy Haniza Talha is still trying to launch broadsides against party president Larry Sng and claims the party’s top leadership wants to get rid of him. Brought to you by the gang with political instincts so good that Zuraida lost her deposit despite expecting to win.

Does not Sng hold all the cards here?  He won his seat and is a MP while Zuraida lost her seat by massive margins.

I don't care to look further into the viper's nest that is PBM than I absolutely have to but there is a scenario where Sng could be overthrown if the top brass actually do want him out and Zuraida to take the job instead. But that assumes Zuraida has a grip on political reality, which to all appearances she does not. Sng is the party founder after all.

Speaking of party founders it looks like PEJUANG is finally giving up the ghost. Mahathir resigned as chairman a few days ago.

[jaichind]

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2023/01/06/bung-faces-sack-from-sabah-cabinet-after-failed-coup/

"Bung faces sack from Sabah Cabinet after failed coup"

In Sabah, there seems to be some sort of coup attempt against the GRS government mostly involving some BN MLAs defecting to support WARISAN to take over.  It seems PH and some UMNO MLAs backing GRS meant that the coup failed.   Since all parties in Sabah back the national unity government it seems the national PH and BN position was against this coup attempt and partly for that reason it failed.  Given this, it seems wise for GRS to jump out of PN and back to Anwar a few weeks back, or else the GRS government would have been gone.    It seems to fit the pattern that given the role of federal subsides no Sabah government can survive for long if it is not aligned with the federal government.

[jaichind]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-sabah-state-government-falls-barisan-nasional-pulls-support-3185096

"Sabah state government collapses as Barisan Nasional withdraws support for chief minister"

Now all 17 BN MLAs withdraw support from the GRS government.    It seems it will be GRS-PH vs WARISAN-BN(UMNO).

GRS has 29 seats, PH has 7 which adds up to 36
WARISAN has 19 and BN(UMNO) has 17 which also adds up to 36

The remaining 7 are

3 KDM (1 GRS rebel, 2 WARISAN rebel)
1 PAS (appointed)
1 PHRS (WARISAN rebel)
1 PBM (WARISAN rebel)
1 Ind (UPKO rebel)

There is talk that some of the UMNO MLAs are for GRS in which case the GRS government is safe.  Also, Anwar's position is critical.

Very fun how we went from the 2020 Sabah election where it was PN-BN vs WARISAN-PH but now it is GRS-PH vs WARISAN-BN  (PN became GRS)

[jaichind]

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2023/01/07/well-never-recognise-secularism-communism-lgbt-says-anwar/

"We’ll never recognize secularism, communism, LGBT, says Anwar"

Anwar correctly sees the weak Malay support for PH as a danger and needs to shore up his support with rural Malays.

[Joseph Cao]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-sabah-state-government-falls-barisan-nasional-pulls-support-3185096

"Sabah state government collapses as Barisan Nasional withdraws support for chief minister"

Now all 17 BN MLAs withdraw support from the GRS government.    It seems it will be GRS-PH vs WARISAN-BN(UMNO).

GRS has 29 seats, PH has 7 which adds up to 36
WARISAN has 19 and BN(UMNO) has 17 which also adds up to 36

The remaining 7 are

3 KDM (1 GRS rebel, 2 WARISAN rebel)
1 PAS (appointed)
1 PHRS (WARISAN rebel)
1 PBM (WARISAN rebel)
1 Ind (UPKO rebel)

There is talk that some of the UMNO MLAs are for GRS in which case the GRS government is safe.  Also, Anwar's position is critical.

Very fun how we went from the 2020 Sabah election where it was PN-BN vs WARISAN-PH but now it is GRS-PH vs WARISAN-BN  (PN became GRS)

The initial resolution here is GRS+PH+PAS+PHRS+Ind plus five UMNO rebels (two of whom are infamous frogs).

Hajiji has sacked Sabah BN chair Bung Mokhtar as deputy chief minister for instigating the attempted coup, and the extra deputy brought in is one of the five UMNO rebels Shahelmey Yahya. So the split at the moment is 44-35 but there will absolutely be future defections. Supposedly Bung (BN), Shafie (WARISAN), and Peter Anthony (KDM) want to form an actual unity government which would obviously improve their prospects at Hajiji's expense.

I am not sure exactly what Anwar and Zahid have been doing frankly, they didn't get involved until all of the above was over, but the easiest and best (optics etc.) option for them would be to do nothing else. They both have other things to worry about after all. Looking at you, UMNO assembly.

[jaichind]

https://www.malaysianow.com/news/2023/01/14/zero-challenge-against-zahid-as-umno-passes-no-contest-motion

"Zero challenge against Zahid as Umno passes no-contest motion"

Zahid was re-elected as UMNO Prez by UMNO ruling out a leadership contest for the top spot.  It is interesting how much UMNO delegates worship office power.  Zahid led UMNO to a much worse defeat in 2022 than Najib in 2018 but after 2018 Najib was out as leader and Zahid get to stay on.  The difference is that Zahid managed to become DPM with the ability to hand out some number of minister posts while after 2018 UMNO was completely out of power.

[jaichind]

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/former-selangor-division-chief-says-he-s-been-sacked-from-umno-as-khairy-awaits-fate

"Umno sacks former Malaysia health minister Khairy, suspends ex-defence minister Hishammuddin"

A huge move in UMNO.  Khairy Jamaluddin was expelled from UMNO.  I can see him joining PPBM or even going over to PH.

[Logical]

Night of the long knives, UMNO edition. Our Indonesian king is cleaning up the house.

[jaichind]

It seems UMNO will have a bunch of splits which will gravely weaken it.  It could be a while if ever it can regain its past glory or power.   In 2022 the PH plan was for PN to split the UMNO Malay vote which they succeded too well.    In seems the next election the PH plan will be for a reduced UMNO to split the PN Malay vote.

[jaichind]

PPBM had its bank accounts frozen by the Malaysia anti-corruption unit.  It seems PPBM election spending last election was unusually large and there is potential evidence that this was funded by illegal donations from various Malaysia business houses. 

[Joseph Cao]

^ Malaysian political party moment.

I suspect the real ripples from the long knives we saw last week will be from two of the sackings that flew under the radar: Noh Omar, who still has pull in the one corner of Selangor where UMNO actually lives, and Hasni Mohammad being turfed out as Johor UMNO chief. Khaled Nordin has the administrative skills as a former chief minister but this plus the Hishammuddin suspension is absolutely not good for the morale of a state party that contributes a decent chunk of what's left of UMNO.

In general this is not the image UMNO needs and it seems pretty well established by now that they're digging themselves even deeper with state elections coming up within a few months, including Selangor, where they are basically begging for scraps now. More on that to come in the IE thread, I think.

[jaichind]

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2023/02/10/pms-approval-rating-at-68-merdeka-center-survey-finds/

"PM’s approval rating at 68%, Merdeka Center survey finds"

Anwar's approval is at 68%. Unity government approval is at 54%.  I guess this is still the honeymoon effect.  What is interesting is that Indians support Anwar and the unity government at a higher rate than the Chinese.   The group with the lowest support is, not unexpectedly, the Peninsula Malaysia Malays.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/malaysias-ex-pm-muhyiddin-arrives-anti-graft-agency-following-allegations-2023-03-09/

"Malaysia's ex-PM Muhyiddin to be charged with corruption"

This sort of makes sense. During the 2022 elections, there were all sorts of rumors that PPBM had a lot of cash to spend on the campaign.  Still, it seems Muhyiddin can play this in a way to convince his base that this is politically motivated. 

[Joseph Cao]

Domestic trade and cost of living minister and AMANAH deputy president Salahuddin Ayub has passed away after surgery for a brain hemorrhage.

Best remembered for the Rahmah initiatives that guaranteed affordable meals and products. And probably the closest thing to a universally acclaimed minister in the country today. RIP.

Obituaries: Bernama, The Vibes

[Joseph Cao]

Hmm. To update or not to update…

I do want to make clear that MUDA sec-gen Amir Abd Hadi, specifically, who claims there is no concrete data that MUDA ever won elections because of support from PH voters, has a reading of election results that is either idiotic or disingenuous.

[Joseph Cao]

Oh man, so much has happened since the last proper update to this thing.

Anyway this certainly seems worthy enough to post about. Former Sarawak chief minister then governor Taib Mahmud, the arguable last White Rajah, has died at 87. Any obituary will of course go heavy on his involvement in the development of Sarawak and less so on how much money he's siphoned away for himself and his family in the process.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Oh man, so much has happened since the last proper update to this thing.

Anyway this certainly seems worthy enough to post about. Former Sarawak chief minister then governor Taib Mahmud, the arguable last White Rajah, has died at 87. Any obituary will of course go heavy on his involvement in the development of Sarawak and less so on how much money he's siphoned away for himself and his family in the process.

Fair to call this the end of an era?

[Joseph Cao]

Oh man, so much has happened since the last proper update to this thing.

Anyway this certainly seems worthy enough to post about. Former Sarawak chief minister then governor Taib Mahmud, the arguable last White Rajah, has died at 87. Any obituary will of course go heavy on his involvement in the development of Sarawak and less so on how much money he's siphoned away for himself and his family in the process.

Fair to call this the end of an era?

In one sense and only one sense.

I started writing this up the night of my last comment and a few nights ago and the forum ate it both times, but in effect the Taib system works better without Taib. There are less cartoonishly corrupt* leaders who can step up to lead the Sarawak Blob, as Adenan Satem did very well and Abang Jo appears to be doing well at the moment; "well" in the sense of level of political support, although that is driven by factors that nobody in Sarawak really controls. The opposition did well running against Taib in 2011. They are… not doing well currently.

The system, which here encompasses Anwar and Putrajaya because what is good for GPS is good for them, actually acted to replace Taib immediately once his health became untenable, all things considered. His term as governor should've ended right about this week. So he resigns earlier in the month without giving a reason. They replace him with Dewan Negara president Wan Junaidi who is really about the one person in the state who has demonstrated any interest in fair legal principles and the like (being as I mentioned before the one who pushed through the partial death penalty repeal that finally passed last year) and thus is wasted in Sarawak's one ceremonial role. Which may be the point. Then they fill the Dewan Negara presidency vacancy with Mutang Tagal, who is Dayak, specifically Orang Ulu, a former MP for that area of the state who left office in 1990 and has since been kicking around in various business capacities far away from day-to-day politics. Also the son of former Borneo Evangelical Mission president Tagal Paran and brother of SPDP big gun Judson Tagal who died in a plane crash in 2004. In fact I really should do a writeup of this region, if not just the family, at some point.

Anyway, all remarkably smooth! Taib died right after the last puzzle piece was moved into place.

*This family would be telenovela material if it weren't Sarawakians' money they were flinging around. The young and recently married wife kidnapping Taib out of hospital in the middle of the night, allegedly disconnecting him from medical devices? Forging a doctor's letter to justify it? The entirety of Sarawak not being able to work out where their governor was for a good few days aside from that the wife wants him signing off the bulk of his money to her instead of to his kids? The sons suing to grab a piece of that fortune, which will undoubtedly take years to litigate? Taib's stepson via the new wife going viral in an unrelated incident for wiping his mouth with €20 notes? Come on.