Is North Carolina cursed for Federal Dems statewide?

[they don't love you like i love you]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

Do you agree with me that the clock is ticking for NC Republicans?

Look at places like suburban Wake County and south central Charlotte, and most of rural eastern NC can't drop for the Democrats much further anyway because it has a significant black population. It's like a slower Georgia trend...really it just takes a small shove for it to go to Tilt D.

Places like Cabarrus and Iredell are exploding in population though and staying deep red. They're kind of like Horry in SC.

Cabarrus also had the biggest D trend of any county in NC, going from Trump winning by over 20 points in 2016 to single digits in 2020. Its growth is not good news for the NCGOP.

[Sol]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

Do you agree with me that the clock is ticking for NC Republicans?

Look at places like suburban Wake County and south central Charlotte, and most of rural eastern NC can't drop for the Democrats much further anyway because it has a significant black population. It's like a slower Georgia trend...really it just takes a small shove for it to go to Tilt D.

Places like Cabarrus and Iredell are exploding in population though and staying deep red. They're kind of like Horry in SC.

The seat which prevented a supermajority in the house was a seat which Democrats flipped in the Concord area.

[Skill and Chance]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

Do you agree with me that the clock is ticking for NC Republicans?

Look at places like suburban Wake County and south central Charlotte, and most of rural eastern NC can't drop for the Democrats much further anyway because it has a significant black population. It's like a slower Georgia trend...really it just takes a small shove for it to go to Tilt D.

Places like Cabarrus and Iredell are exploding in population though and staying deep red. They're kind of like Horry in SC.

The seat which prevented a supermajority in the house was a seat which Democrats flipped in the Concord area.

Assuming the new state supreme court goes back to a hands-off approach, how difficult would it be for NC R's to draw a supermajority map?

[Spectator]

One thing I didn’t realize til now was that NC-Sen 2022 in an R+1ish environment was closer than NC-Pres 2016, which was D+2 nationally. I think sooner or later Dems will win a Senate or Presidential race this decade.

[ProgressiveModerate]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

Do you agree with me that the clock is ticking for NC Republicans?

Look at places like suburban Wake County and south central Charlotte, and most of rural eastern NC can't drop for the Democrats much further anyway because it has a significant black population. It's like a slower Georgia trend...really it just takes a small shove for it to go to Tilt D.

Places like Cabarrus and Iredell are exploding in population though and staying deep red. They're kind of like Horry in SC.

The seat which prevented a supermajority in the house was a seat which Democrats flipped in the Concord area.

Assuming the new state supreme court goes back to a hands-off approach, how difficult would it be for NC R's to draw a supermajority map?

A supermajority is only 60% in NC. In 2022 they were just 1 seat short in the state House on fair maps, and outright won a state Senate supermajority.

In other words it's pretty easy to draw, especially as Dems become more concentrated to the cities and lose previously D-leaning black-belt seats due to depopulation.

[It’s so Joever]

The clock is not ticking for NC Rs so long as rural east NC exists.

[ProgressiveModerate]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

Do you agree with me that the clock is ticking for NC Republicans?

Look at places like suburban Wake County and south central Charlotte, and most of rural eastern NC can't drop for the Democrats much further anyway because it has a significant black population. It's like a slower Georgia trend...really it just takes a small shove for it to go to Tilt D.

Places like Cabarrus and Iredell are exploding in population though and staying deep red. They're kind of like Horry in SC.

Cabarrus County is zooming left and will likely vote blue by 2028. Lots of black migration there, much like the Atlanta suburbs. Iredell doesn’t seem to be shifting more rightward either. The only thing that can save the NC GOP for the decade is the counties in the east getting more Republican and boomer retirements. The trend lines in Charlotte metro and Raleigh metro are ugly and not getting better.

I'm not super familiar with NC political geography, I picked those counties off the top of my head. The point is there are tons of counties like Iredell AFAIK, growing at a good clip while staying just as red in percentage, thus producing bigger raw vote margins. I don't think NC trends R but I don't think it'll necessarily trend D either.

I think the issue for the NC GOP is if Dems continue getting larger vote nets out of places like Wake and Mecklenburg Counties, they GOP has to make that up somewhere. Holding ground with the same vote nets in exurbs of Charlotte and Appalachia isn't enough, they actually have to grow their vote nets.

One shift that really helps the GOP is how badly the black belt has been depopulating in NC specifically. That by default will bite into Dems numbers a bit. You also have decent growth along the NC coast that has been R.

[Mr.Phips]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

Do you agree with me that the clock is ticking for NC Republicans?

Look at places like suburban Wake County and south central Charlotte, and most of rural eastern NC can't drop for the Democrats much further anyway because it has a significant black population. It's like a slower Georgia trend...really it just takes a small shove for it to go to Tilt D.

Places like Cabarrus and Iredell are exploding in population though and staying deep red. They're kind of like Horry in SC.

The seat which prevented a supermajority in the house was a seat which Democrats flipped in the Concord area.

Assuming the new state supreme court goes back to a hands-off approach, how difficult would it be for NC R's to draw a supermajority map?

I’m not sure if Republicans can redraw the legislature mid decade like they can for the congressional map (which was clearly stated as a 2022 only map).

[ProgressiveModerate]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

Do you agree with me that the clock is ticking for NC Republicans?

Look at places like suburban Wake County and south central Charlotte, and most of rural eastern NC can't drop for the Democrats much further anyway because it has a significant black population. It's like a slower Georgia trend...really it just takes a small shove for it to go to Tilt D.

Places like Cabarrus and Iredell are exploding in population though and staying deep red. They're kind of like Horry in SC.

The seat which prevented a supermajority in the house was a seat which Democrats flipped in the Concord area.

Assuming the new state supreme court goes back to a hands-off approach, how difficult would it be for NC R's to draw a supermajority map?

I’m not sure if Republicans can redraw the legislature mid decade like they can for the congressional map (which was clearly stated as a 2022 only map).

The area there is a bit gray but I think the conservative majority finds some way to allow them to redraw the map.

The state Senate map as is is a slight R gerrymander that seems like it'll be hard for Ds to crack. Trump won 28 of 50 districts and Rs won 30 in 2022. The issue is that almost all the swing seats Ds need are in areas where shifts are brutal, like around the Lumbee tribe or the depopulating black belt. The only seat with favorable shifts is the Carrabus seat; everything else is pretty R.

On the state House level, again, topline the map actually seems pretty fair at 61 Trump to 59 Biden, but a ton of those Biden seats are extremely narrow, and there are at least 6 I can count that look like they won't be D during the latter part of the decade. And again, on the flip side, there aren't a ton of great suburban flip opportunities for Ds.

In NC, I see Dems becoming an almost high turnout urban-exclusive party which creates a simillar problem for them as WI where even a "fair" map makes it very hard for them to win a majority.

[they don't love you like i love you]

The clock is not ticking for NC Rs so long as rural east NC exists.

Republicans are close to maxed out there. There's a significant black population in that area.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The clock is not ticking for NC Rs so long as rural east NC exists.

Republicans are close to maxed out there. There's a significant black population in that area.

It's shrinking by the day outside of maybe Greenfield.

[Mr.Phips]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

Do you agree with me that the clock is ticking for NC Republicans?

Look at places like suburban Wake County and south central Charlotte, and most of rural eastern NC can't drop for the Democrats much further anyway because it has a significant black population. It's like a slower Georgia trend...really it just takes a small shove for it to go to Tilt D.

Places like Cabarrus and Iredell are exploding in population though and staying deep red. They're kind of like Horry in SC.

The seat which prevented a supermajority in the house was a seat which Democrats flipped in the Concord area.

Assuming the new state supreme court goes back to a hands-off approach, how difficult would it be for NC R's to draw a supermajority map?

I’m not sure if Republicans can redraw the legislature mid decade like they can for the congressional map (which was clearly stated as a 2022 only map).

The area there is a bit gray but I think the conservative majority finds some way to allow them to redraw the map.

The state Senate map as is is a slight R gerrymander that seems like it'll be hard for Ds to crack. Trump won 28 of 50 districts and Rs won 30 in 2022. The issue is that almost all the swing seats Ds need are in areas where shifts are brutal, like around the Lumbee tribe or the depopulating black belt. The only seat with favorable shifts is the Carrabus seat; everything else is pretty R.

On the state House level, again, topline the map actually seems pretty fair at 61 Trump to 59 Biden, but a ton of those Biden seats are extremely narrow, and there are at least 6 I can count that look like they won't be D during the latter part of the decade. And again, on the flip side, there aren't a ton of great suburban flip opportunities for Ds.

In NC, I see Dems becoming an almost high turnout urban-exclusive party which creates a simillar problem for them as WI where even a "fair" map makes it very hard for them to win a majority.

Maybe the conservative court allows them to redraw the legislature map, but I’m not sure if now a gubernatorial veto may be in play since it’s not done in the census year AND not court ordered (like the congressional one and the 2019 legislative ones).  Dems should certainly argue this if it comes to that.

[Pres Mike]

Charlotte is basically kind of like Nashville, with the suburban counties generally outvoting the main county. Mecklenburg is obviously the Davidson of the state, meanwhile Cabarrus is basically Rutherford and Union is Williamson. Iredell and Gaston are like Sumter and Wilson.

A lot of people have asked me why Tennessee hasn't shifted towards the Democrats despite Nashvile have explosive growth similar to Atlanta.

Well, the city isn't really growing. The suburbs are exploding. And while a lot of young people are moving to Nashville from around the country, a huge part of that growth are middle and upper class families who like the weather and no state tax. Think Texas, not Georgia or Arizona.