Biden his time

[NewYorkExpress]

Following the 2006 elections, which saw Democrats sweep to victory in both houses of Congress, with a comfortable 233-201 majority in the House, and a more narrow 50-49 margin the Senate (Joe Lieberman had not yet announced which party he would caucus with, but it was assumed he caucus with the Democrats).

Nancy Pelosi easily had the votes to become Speaker of the House, there was no question of that in anyone's eyes. The battle for Majority (or Minority Leader) in the Senate, was going to be interesting.

Hillary Clinton saw two paths before her. She could run for the job she'd dreamed of as a child, President in 2008. However, she'd come to realize that there was a high chance she would not win the Democratic nomination. If Barack Obama ran, Clinton suspected she would ultimately lose to him in the primaries. Morever, Clinton was one of the few Democrats who could blow an eminently winnable 2008 election, at least according to polling in battleground and national polling she'd been having done alongside her reelection polling throughout 2006 (she'd tested herself against the Republican frontrunner, John McCain, as well as against Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Tennessee Senator Bill Frist, Virginia Senator George Allen and Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, with her polls showing her leading only Romney).

The other door for Hillary, was to enter Senate leadership. Hillary felt she might be able to win the position of at least Majority or Minority Whip against Dick Durbin, or possibly even Majority or Minority Leader against Harry Reid.

Clinton indeed, confirmed that she would campaign for the top Democratic leadership position in the Senate on November 13, the same day that Joe Lieberman confirmed that he would caucus with the Democrats.

At a closed door caucus meeting, Clinton defeated Reid, 30-19 to become Majority Leader, Durbin was reelected as Majority Whip, and Barack Obama was named Chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

The two Senate moves seemed to have the effect of taking Clinton and Obama out of the 2008 race, and Clinton confirmed that she would not run (Obama, surprisingly, refused to shut the door on a 2008 bid, only stating that "his current focus was on recruiting a strong crop of Senate candidates, and we'll see where we are by the Summer.").

On the Republican side, as John Boehner became the Minority Leader in the House, Bill Frist's retirement meant a leadership void for Republicans for them. In what was a modest surprise, Richard Lugar defeated Mitch McConnell for Majority Leader, 29-20, with McConnell remaining Majority Whip, and Saxby Chambliss taking over the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee.

The First serious candidate of either party to announce for President was a Republican, former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson, who had also spent three years as President Bush's Secretary of Health and Human Services, who announced his bid on December 1. He was quickly followed by former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore, Senator Sam Brownback, and Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle, all of whom announced their campaigns or filed with the FEC between December 1st and January 1, 2007.

The Democratic field was slightly slower to develop. With Clinton ruling herself out, and Obama deferring a decision until later, three candidates had entered the race by early January. Former Senator John Edwards was first, announcing his campaign boldly (and immediately running into questions about his relationship with a young woman, Rielle Hunter, who was traveling with him), and was closely followed by Senator Joe Biden, and Senator Chris Dodd.

Biden was leading in the polls on the Democratic side (except in Iowa and South Carolina, where Edwards led), while John McCain, who had yet to announce, led on the Republican side (except in Iowa and South Carolina, where Brownback led, and in Hawaii, where Lingle led).

[Pres Mike]

None of this makes any sense

In 2006-2007 period, very few saw Obama as a credible theart until Iowa. Hillary was treated as the de facto nominee since the 2004 election. She did not view Obama as a theart at all.

Obama himself did not see himself as a canidadite until Henry Reid and Chuck Schumer encouraged him to run.

And blow the race? Hillary was the best polling Democrat aganist all possible republicans (until Obama started winning the primary).

Hillary was seen as the de facto next president by just about everyone until Obama came out of no where.

A better timeline idea for Biden 2008 is to have Bill Clinton be engaged in some scandle where Hillary chances are disminshed. And I would have Biden be friends with Obama while both are senators so Obama decides not to run. Obama said Biden was cold to him in the senate

[NewYorkExpress]

None of this makes any sense

In 2006-2007 period, very few saw Obama as a credible theart until Iowa. Hillary was treated as the de facto nominee since the 2004 election. She did not view Obama as a theart at all.

Obama himself did not see himself as a canidadite until Henry Reid and Chuck Schumer encouraged him to run.

And blow the race? Hillary was the best polling Democrat aganist all possible republicans (until Obama started winning the primary).

Hillary was seen as the de facto next president by just about everyone until Obama came out of no where.

A better timeline idea for Biden 2008 is to have Bill Clinton be engaged in some scandle where Hillary chances are disminshed. And I would have Biden be friends with Obama while both are senators so Obama decides not to run. Obama said Biden was cold to him in the senate

Obama was a threat, it's just that no one saw him coming (compared to Edwards, who really wasn't a threat, but everyone thought he was).

Here, Hillary would be the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination, but she's the underdog in November. Remember, the financial crisis and recession has not happened yet.

Also, Biden doesn't have the easy path you seem to be thinking he has. Obama hasn't completely ruled out running yet, there's at least one other possible strong candidate in the Democratic field waiting in the wings (Gore, perhaps?), and like Clinton, he's currently an underdog in the general election (especially against McCain).

[Pres Mike]

None of this makes any sense

In 2006-2007 period, very few saw Obama as a credible theart until Iowa. Hillary was treated as the de facto nominee since the 2004 election. She did not view Obama as a theart at all.

Obama himself did not see himself as a canidadite until Henry Reid and Chuck Schumer encouraged him to run.

And blow the race? Hillary was the best polling Democrat aganist all possible republicans (until Obama started winning the primary).

Hillary was seen as the de facto next president by just about everyone until Obama came out of no where.

A better timeline idea for Biden 2008 is to have Bill Clinton be engaged in some scandle where Hillary chances are disminshed. And I would have Biden be friends with Obama while both are senators so Obama decides not to run. Obama said Biden was cold to him in the senate

Obama was a threat, it's just that no one saw him coming (compared to Edwards, who really wasn't a threat, but everyone thought he was).

Here, Hillary would be the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination, but she's the underdog in November. Remember, the financial crisis and recession has not happened yet.

Also, Biden doesn't have the easy path you seem to be thinking he has. Obama hasn't completely ruled out running yet, there's at least one other possible strong candidate in the Democratic field waiting in the wings (Gore, perhaps?), and like Clinton, he's currently an underdog in the general election (especially against McCain).

But she wasn't the underdog yet. Even before the housing crash, Hillary was seen as likely to beat any Republican. 2006 really soured the country's mood on Republicans

[NewYorkExpress]

While the Presidential field began slowly building, the downballot races in 2008 were slowly filling out as well.

The first incumbent in the Senate to announce their plans (not counting Biden, who was running for President, but thanks to Delaware law was also running for reelection), was Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey. Lautenberg had been under increasing pressure to retire again throughout the last few months of 2006, and on December 1, 2007, Lautenberg announced he would not run for reelection, telling The Star-Ledger that while he believed he was healthy enough to serve another term, he respected the voter's sentiments, and he did believe the voters thought he was capable of serving another term.

The open Senate seat, attracted several top New Jersey politicians of both parties to run. On the Democratic side, State Assemblywoman Sheila Oliver, State Senator and former Acting Governor Richard Codey, and Representative Holt all quickly announced their campaigns.

On the Republican side, both State Assemblyman Jon Bramnick and outgoing Monmouth County Sheriff Joseph Oxley announced campaigns, but most insiders in New Jersey felt the seat would only be competitive if former Governor and EPA Administrator Christine Todd Whitman entered the race, however she was not interested (she did express passing interest in a Presidential campaign throughout December, but private had her at less than 1% in both and New Hampshire, and as a result, she quietly backed out of that race).

The other high-profile race taking shape was in the 12th Congressional District that Holt was vacating, where multiple heavy hitters in New Jersey Democratic politics were parachuting in from out of district to seek a promotion, much to the chagrin of local residents.

Already having announced in the Democratic Primary as of January 1 was State Senator Stephen Sweeney (a resident of Camden), Secretary of State Nina Mitchell Wells (a resident of Livingston), State Senator and Mayor of North Bergen Nicholas Sacco (resident of North Bergen) and Trenton Mayor Douglas Palmer (the only local, he was considered the favorite in the primary, despite Trenton not actually being in the district).