Who can beat Menendez in a primary?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:45:18 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Who can beat Menendez in a primary?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Who can beat Menendez in a primary?  (Read 1837 times)
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,737
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 22, 2022, 09:20:39 PM »

Who can beat Bob Menendez in a primary?
Logged
BloJo94
Rookie
**
Posts: 117
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2022, 07:18:42 PM »

Who can beat Bob Menendez in a primary?
Donald Payne Jr?
Logged
Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,468
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2022, 07:37:41 PM »

Who can beat Bob Menendez in a primary?

Basically anyone if he loses the support of LeRoy Jones.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,759
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2022, 08:32:28 PM »

NJ is safe D period neither Mendenez or Booker are leaving the Senate anytime soon
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,562


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2022, 09:04:23 PM »

Cory Booker
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,576
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2022, 02:05:41 PM »

Sheila Oliver?
Logged
Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver
freethinkingindy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,189
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 24, 2022, 10:23:14 PM »

Rob Menendez, Jr.
Logged
Zenobiyl
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 364
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2022, 10:29:19 PM »

Jon Stewart
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,562


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2022, 01:20:23 AM »


Part of the reason she may be one of the best options is because Murphy may just throw his support directly behind her which would be powerful. I think with most others Murphy just stays silent on who he supports.

Also, strong support in the black community would be extremely powerful to Ds prospects of taking down Menendez.
Logged
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,737
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2022, 01:44:59 AM »


She'll be 72 years old in 2024.
Logged
GoldenMainer
Rookie
**
Posts: 244


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2022, 02:53:37 PM »

Nobody has said Mikie Sherrill? As a female veteran, she'd likely get the support of Emily's List & veterans orgs. like VoteVets.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,931
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2022, 04:43:37 PM »

I think Mikie Sherill would have a very good shot at beating him.
Logged
Pollster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,756


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 25, 2022, 04:53:40 PM »

New Jersey incumbents don't lose primaries. Nearly impossible to get around the county line especially in the cost-prohibitive NY and Philly media markets.
Logged
NewYorkExpress
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,823
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 26, 2022, 01:33:33 AM »

Ras Baraka?
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,447
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 26, 2022, 10:28:24 AM »

Phil Murphy.
Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,132
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 26, 2022, 09:12:40 PM »


Very interesting - I mean, it actually could be possible he'd do that (unironically), but I still find it very unlikely. It's been known to happen that senators who leave office switch to the other senate seat (Goldwater, most prominently), or people who run for a senate seat and then lose run successfully for the state's other senate seat later on - but for an incumbent senator to run for the state's other senate seat, that'd be very unusual indeed (a first?). I would dismiss it completely, and probably still will, but it's not entirely possible if Menendez becomes a bigger embarrassment and Booker wants to prove something.
Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,132
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 26, 2022, 09:13:11 PM »


Lol. Though in seriousness, he does have a House seat now, of course, and who knows, he might run for his father's seat when Bob retires.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: January 20, 2023, 08:48:05 PM »

Dick Codey.

Could win with a coalition of whites and blacks and younger Latinos who are not enamored nor care for Menendez.

He can cap off his historic long political career as Assemblyman, State Senator, Senate President and Governor as being Senator..

Yea, he is a old white guy, but let him be in the Senate for 6 years....

https://bronx.news12.com/sen-menendez-says-federal-corruption-investigation-into-him-will-result-in-nothing
Logged
kwabbit
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,757


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: January 20, 2023, 09:37:36 PM »

New Jersey incumbents don't lose primaries. Nearly impossible to get around the county line especially in the cost-prohibitive NY and Philly media markets.

The county line will help Menendez, but it makes the biggest difference in lower offices. Menendez won't lose because his opponent is exceptional, he would lose because the voters know he's corrupt. The voters that would take down Menendez would come to ballot box to vote against him, not to vote for his opponent. If someone is against Menendez, they can just vote for a candidate in a different column. Especially when the Senate race is at the top and isn't just a lower office in a column of lower offices.

I think the most likely Senator, if not Menendez himself, is his son. Bob will not retire and leave an open primary unless it's a foregone conclusion his son will be Senator. He wouldn't back down from a primary from Murphy, Oliver, Sherrill, or any of his possible opponents.

That being said, I really think Sherrill or Kim could beat him. His joke opponent got 37% in 2018. Sherrill has a lot of money left over from her congressional campaigns and would be bankrolled by Bloomberg. Gottheimer is influential in the House and is too unlikeable himself to be an insurgent candidate, while the other House Dems are too senior to run for Senate.
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,562


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: January 20, 2023, 09:42:08 PM »

Just realized I might be able to vote in this election. If so, you have one solid anti-Menendez vote right here.
Logged
Zedonathin2020
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,262
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: January 20, 2023, 10:12:01 PM »

Andy Kim maybe?
Logged
Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,293
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: January 20, 2023, 10:51:39 PM »


Very interesting - I mean, it actually could be possible he'd do that (unironically), but I still find it very unlikely. It's been known to happen that senators who leave office switch to the other senate seat (Goldwater, most prominently), or people who run for a senate seat and then lose run successfully for the state's other senate seat later on - but for an incumbent senator to run for the state's other senate seat, that'd be very unusual indeed (a first?). I would dismiss it completely, and probably still will, but it's not entirely possible if Menendez becomes a bigger embarrassment and Booker wants to prove something.

Kent Conrad promised in 1986 not to run for re-election if the budget deficit didn't fall, which was moderately stupid on his part. Quentin Burdick, who held the other seat, died, allowing Conrad to run in the special election for the other seat.
Logged
Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,980
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: January 20, 2023, 10:58:58 PM »


Very interesting - I mean, it actually could be possible he'd do that (unironically), but I still find it very unlikely. It's been known to happen that senators who leave office switch to the other senate seat (Goldwater, most prominently), or people who run for a senate seat and then lose run successfully for the state's other senate seat later on - but for an incumbent senator to run for the state's other senate seat, that'd be very unusual indeed (a first?). I would dismiss it completely, and probably still will, but it's not entirely possible if Menendez becomes a bigger embarrassment and Booker wants to prove something.

Kent Conrad promised in 1986 not to run for re-election if the budget deficit didn't fall, which was moderately stupid on his part. Quentin Burdick, who held the other seat, died, allowing Conrad to run in the special election for the other seat.

Since this a thread about Menendez, there's a sort of similar example that happened in a New Jersey legislative race in 2019.

In Morris County's LD25, long-serving State Senator Anthony Bucco died of a heart attack in September 2019. His son, Assemblyman Tony Bucco, was appointed to replace him in the Senate.

The problem is that the younger Bucco was already running for reelection to his seat in the Assembly and because the appointment happened so close to the November election, it was too late to replace him on the ballot. Effectively, he was running for an office that he had no intention of actually holding.

Despite all that, the younger Bucco still won the Assembly race and resigned shortly after to officially take the Senate seat.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: January 21, 2023, 07:00:31 PM »

What about former Camden mayor Dana Redd?

From South Jersey. Jersey is too Northern-dominated. There needs to be a senator that South Jersey feels are represented.

Redd is a Black woman, she can get Black voters, she turned Camden around and rebuilt Camden's police system into one of the best urban police forces in America.

Logged
Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,604


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: January 21, 2023, 08:52:42 PM »

Probably no one as long as the NJ political machine is in his corner. He's gotten out of most of the corruption clouds without too much damage to his reputation, he's considered a good advocate for NJ interests by the unions and other power brokers, and few of the biggest guns would be willing to give up a safe seat to run against him. Murphy might have the best shot.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.063 seconds with 12 queries.