If every state's senate delegation ran against each other

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If every incumbent senator ran against their colleague in a general election who would win?
(Some of them I have no clue like RI since they are both very similar, so I took a guess)
IMO

Alabama-Britt
Alaska-Murkowski
Arizona-Kelly
Arkansas-Cotton
California-Padilla
Colorado-Bennet
Connecticut-Murphy
Delaware-Carper
Florida-Rubio
Georgia-Warnock
Hawaii-Schatz
Idaho-Crapo
Illinois-Durbin
Indiana-Young
Iowa-Grassley
Kansas-Moran
Kentucky-Paul
Louisiana-Cassidy
Maine-King
Maryland-Cardin
Massachusetts-Markey
Michigan-Peters
Minnesota-Klobuchar
Mississippi-Wicker
Missouri-Schmitt
Montana-Daines
Nebraska-Fischer
Nevada-CCM
New Hampshire-Shaheen
New Jersey-Booker
New Mexico-Heinrich
New York-Schumer
North Carolina-Tillis
North Dakota-Hoeven
Ohio-Vance
Oklahoma-Lankford
Oregon-Merkley
Pennsylvania-Casey
Rhode Island-Whitehouse
South Carolina-Scott
South Dakota-Thune
Tennessee-Hagerty
Texas-Cornyn
Utah-Romney
Vermont-Sanders
Virginia-Warner
Washington-Cantwell
West Virginia-Capito
Wisconsin-Baldwin
Wyoming-Barrasso

[Tekken_Guy]

If every incumbent senator ran against their colleague in a general election who would win?
(Some of them I have no clue like RI since they are both very similar, so I took a guess)
IMO

Alabama-Britt
Alaska-Murkowski
Arizona-Kelly
Arkansas-Cotton
California-Padilla
Colorado-Bennet
Connecticut-Murphy
Delaware-Carper
Florida-Rubio
Georgia-Warnock
Hawaii-Schatz
Idaho-Crapo
Illinois-Durbin
Indiana-Young
Iowa-Grassley
Kansas-Moran
Kentucky-Paul
Louisiana-Cassidy
Maine-King
Maryland-Cardin
Massachusetts-Markey
Michigan-Peters
Minnesota-Klobuchar
Mississippi-Wicker
Missouri-Schmitt
Montana-Daines
Nebraska-Fischer
Nevada-CCM
New Hampshire-Shaheen
New Jersey-Booker
New Mexico-Heinrich
New York-Schumer
North Carolina-Tillis
North Dakota-Hoeven
Ohio-Vance
Oklahoma-Lankford
Oregon-Merkley
Pennsylvania-Casey
Rhode Island-Whitehouse
South Carolina-Scott
South Dakota-Thune
Tennessee-Hagerty
Texas-Cornyn
Utah-Romney
Vermont-Sanders
Virginia-Warner
Washington-Cantwell
West Virginia-Capito
Wisconsin-Baldwin
Wyoming-Barrasso

IMO:
In AL I think Tuberville wins. He's way more popular with the MAGA faithful.
Kennedy would beat Cassidy. That impeachment vote hasn't done him any favers.
Fischer would have beaten Sasse for sure, but I think Ricketts would in the new matchup.
Tillis would have eked it out with Burr, but he isn't that popular with Republicans and I think Budd would win.
Wyden still beats Merkley.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

If every incumbent senator ran against their colleague in a general election who would win?
(Some of them I have no clue like RI since they are both very similar, so I took a guess)
IMO

Alabama-Britt
Alaska-Murkowski
Arizona-Kelly
Arkansas-Cotton
California-Padilla
Colorado-Bennet
Connecticut-Murphy
Delaware-Carper
Florida-Rubio
Georgia-Warnock
Hawaii-Schatz
Idaho-Crapo
Illinois-Durbin
Indiana-Young
Iowa-Grassley
Kansas-Moran
Kentucky-Paul
Louisiana-Cassidy
Maine-King
Maryland-Cardin
Massachusetts-Markey
Michigan-Peters
Minnesota-Klobuchar
Mississippi-Wicker
Missouri-Schmitt
Montana-Daines
Nebraska-Fischer
Nevada-CCM
New Hampshire-Shaheen
New Jersey-Booker
New Mexico-Heinrich
New York-Schumer
North Carolina-Tillis
North Dakota-Hoeven
Ohio-Vance
Oklahoma-Lankford
Oregon-Merkley
Pennsylvania-Casey
Rhode Island-Whitehouse
South Carolina-Scott
South Dakota-Thune
Tennessee-Hagerty
Texas-Cornyn
Utah-Romney
Vermont-Sanders
Virginia-Warner
Washington-Cantwell
West Virginia-Capito
Wisconsin-Baldwin
Wyoming-Barrasso

RI would be Reed. He is much more popular and does much better than Whitehouse.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Reminder for states with two senator of the same party that this is a general not a primary so assuming the more moderate, if there is enough distance between the two, one can keep some of their party I expect them to win in most cases.


Alabama-Britt
Alaska-Murkowski
Arizona- Sienima - Bold I know given her terrible approval rating but I think she keeps enough Democrats/ indy to win with almost universal GOP support in a close state
Arkansas-Cotton
California-Padilla
Colorado-Hickenlooper- popular former gov 
Connecticut-Murphy
Delaware-Carper
Florida-Rubio- quite possibly the easiest same party vote if not for Texas
Georgia-Warnock- more loved by Democrats than Ossoff and Ossoff is not moderate enough to get GOP support
Hawaii-Schatz
Idaho-Crapo
Illinois-Duckworth - another upset Durbin's senate leadership hurts him with Republicans and he has annoyed the base some
Indiana-Young
Iowa-Grassley
Kansas-Moran
Kentucky-Paul- Honestly do Democrats just leave this race blank?
Louisiana-Cassidy universal Dem support over Trump impeachment plus just enough GOP support
Maine-Collins
Maryland-Cardin
Massachusetts-Markey- Warren gets crushed by both Republicans, who despise her much more than Markey and the AOC wing backs Markey over her. She honestly might win Cambridge and lose every other city and town in the state.
Michigan-Peters (only cause of retirement)
Minnesota-Klobuchar
Mississippi-Wicker
Missouri-Schmitt- Hawley is hated by Dems
Montana-Daines
Nebraska-Fischer
Nevada-CCM
New Hampshire-Shaheen
New Jersey-Booker
New Mexico-Heinrich
New York-Schumer
North Carolina-Tillis
North Dakota-Hoeven
Ohio-Vance
Oklahoma-Lankford
Oregon-Merkley
Pennsylvania-Casey
Rhode Island-Reed
South Carolina-Scott- despite being more moderate (on most things) Graham is hated by Democrats
South Dakota-Thune
Tennessee-Hagerty
Texas-Cornyn- the easiest state on this list, wins majority of Republicans and almost universal democratic support
Utah-Romney
Vermont-Sanders
Virginia-Warner
Washington-Cantwell
West Virginia-Capito
Wisconsin-Johnson
Wyoming-Barrasso

[Tekken_Guy]

Reminder for states with two senator of the same party that this is a general not a primary so assuming the more moderate, if there is enough distance between the two, one can keep some of their party I expect them to win in most cases.


Alabama-Britt
Alaska-Murkowski
Arizona- Sienima - Bold I know given her terrible approval rating but I think she keeps enough Democrats/ indy to win with almost universal GOP support in a close state
Arkansas-Cotton
California-Padilla
Colorado-Hickenlooper- popular former gov 
Connecticut-Murphy
Delaware-Carper
Florida-Rubio- quite possibly the easiest same party vote if not for Texas
Georgia-Warnock- more loved by Democrats than Ossoff and Ossoff is not moderate enough to get GOP support
Hawaii-Schatz
Idaho-Crapo
Illinois-Duckworth - another upset Durbin's senate leadership hurts him with Republicans and he has annoyed the base some
Indiana-Young
Iowa-Grassley
Kansas-Moran
Kentucky-Paul- Honestly do Democrats just leave this race blank?
Louisiana-Cassidy universal Dem support over Trump impeachment plus just enough GOP support
Maine-Collins
Maryland-Cardin
Massachusetts-Markey- Warren gets crushed by both Republicans, who despise her much more than Markey and the AOC wing backs Markey over her. She honestly might win Cambridge and lose every other city and town in the state.
Michigan-Peters (only cause of retirement)
Minnesota-Klobuchar
Mississippi-Wicker
Missouri-Schmitt- Hawley is hated by Dems
Montana-Daines
Nebraska-Fischer
Nevada-CCM
New Hampshire-Shaheen
New Jersey-Booker
New Mexico-Heinrich
New York-Schumer
North Carolina-Tillis
North Dakota-Hoeven
Ohio-Vance
Oklahoma-Lankford
Oregon-Merkley
Pennsylvania-Casey
Rhode Island-Reed
South Carolina-Scott- despite being more moderate (on most things) Graham is hated by Democrats
South Dakota-Thune
Tennessee-Hagerty
Texas-Cornyn- the easiest state on this list, wins majority of Republicans and almost universal democratic support
Utah-Romney
Vermont-Sanders
Virginia-Warner
Washington-Cantwell
West Virginia-Capito
Wisconsin-Johnson
Wyoming-Barrasso

-Kelly still beats Sinema IMO, he has enough goodwill with Republicans that I think he does better with them than Sinema with GOPers.
-King would absolutely beat Collins. Whereas Collins usually has a lot of crossover appeal in her elections, King would get near-universal Democratic support in this match-up.
-Baldwin would easily beat Johnson. She has a lot of crossover appeal whereas Johnson has very little.

[NewYorkExpress]

If every incumbent senator ran against their colleague in a general election who would win?
(Some of them I have no clue like RI since they are both very similar, so I took a guess)
IMO

Alabama-Britt
Alaska-Murkowski
Arizona-Kelly
Arkansas-Cotton
California-Padilla
Colorado-Bennet
Connecticut-Murphy
Delaware-Carper
Florida-Rubio
Georgia-Warnock
Hawaii-Schatz
Idaho-Crapo
Illinois-Durbin
Indiana-Young
Iowa-Grassley
Kansas-Moran
Kentucky-Paul
Louisiana-Cassidy
Maine-King
Maryland-Cardin
Massachusetts-Markey
Michigan-Peters
Minnesota-Klobuchar
Mississippi-Wicker
Missouri-Schmitt
Montana-Daines
Nebraska-Fischer
Nevada-CCM
New Hampshire-Shaheen
New Jersey-Booker
New Mexico-Heinrich
New York-Schumer
North Carolina-Tillis
North Dakota-Hoeven
Ohio-Vance
Oklahoma-Lankford
Oregon-Merkley
Pennsylvania-Casey
Rhode Island-Whitehouse
South Carolina-Scott
South Dakota-Thune
Tennessee-Hagerty
Texas-Cornyn
Utah-Romney
Vermont-Sanders
Virginia-Warner
Washington-Cantwell
West Virginia-Capito
Wisconsin-Baldwin
Wyoming-Barrasso

You have seen Mitt Romney's approval ratings among GOP Primary voters recently, right? They are atrocious. Republicans would vote for Lee en masse over Romney, and they make up far more of Utah's voter base than the few Democrats who would support him.

[Mr. Smith]

Alabama-Britt
Alaska-Murkowski
Arizona-Kelly
Arkansas-Boozman
California-Padilla
Colorado-Bennet
Connecticut-Murphy
Delaware-Carper
Florida-Rubio
Georgia-Warnock
Hawaii-Schatz
Idaho-Crapo
Illinois-Durbin
Indiana-Young
Iowa-Grassley
Kansas-Moran
Kentucky-McConnell
Louisiana-Kennedy
Maine-King
Maryland-Cardin
Massachusetts-Markey
Michigan-Peters
Minnesota-Klobuchar
Mississippi-Wicker
Missouri-Schmitt
Montana-Daines
Nebraska-Fischer
Nevada-CCM
New Hampshire-Shaheen
New Jersey-Booker
New Mexico-Heinrich
New York-Schumer
North Carolina-Tillis
North Dakota-Hoeven
Ohio-Vance
Oklahoma-Lankford
Oregon-Wyden
Pennsylvania-Casey
Rhode Island-Whitehouse
South Carolina-Scott
South Dakota-Thune
Tennessee-Hagerty
Texas-Cornyn
Utah-Lee
Vermont-Sanders
Virginia-Kaine
Washington-Murray
West Virginia-Capito
Wisconsin-Baldwin
Wyoming-Barrasso

[/quote]

[Arizona Iced Tea]

You have seen Mitt Romney's approval ratings among GOP Primary voters recently, right? They are atrocious. Republicans would vote for Lee en masse over Romney, and they make up far more of Utah's voter base than the few Democrats who would support him.

Since this would be a general election, Romney doesn't need to win R voters, he just needs every McMullin voter to support him over Lee and get around 30% of Republicans to vote for him. 30% may sound like a lot but even Liz Cheney got 29%.

[Tekken_Guy]

AL: Tuberville would absolutely win a GOP primary, but Britt would be favored in a general open to all.
AK: Murkowski. She gets universal support for Democrats that Sullivan won’t be able to get from R’s.
AR: Cotton definitely wins the primary, but Boozman’s more competitive in a general.
AZ: Kelly. He gets universal Democratic support while the Republicans Sinema needs
CA: Easily Padilla.
CO: Probably Bennet. Hickenlooper has issues to his left.
CT: Murphy I guess. Those Da Nang Dick attacks from Trump haven’t done Blumenthal any favors with R voters.
DE: Probably Carper, because he’s more known than Coons.
FL: Rubio, and it’s not close. Dem voters hold their nose for Rubio because Scott is toxic.
GA: Warnock, because black voters
HI: Schatz. Hirono is quite polarizing.
IL: Durbin, since he’s more of an institution than Duckworth.
IN: Young
IA: Grassley
KS: Moran, since he’s been around longer than Marshall
KY: A hard one, because Dems hate both members. But anti-establishment anger towards McConnell gives the win to Paul
LA: Kennedy. Cassidy gets near universal support from Democrats though.
ME: King. Collins’ crossover support almost completely vanishes in this matchup.
MD: Cardin
MA: Markey
MI: Peters
MN: Klobuchar
MS: Wicker, since Hyde-Smith is a weak candidate.
MO: Schmitt. Republicans split down the middle but Dems overwhelmingly vote against Hawley.
MT: Daines, though Tester keeps it closer than a generic D.
NE: Ricketts narrowly. Fischer has been relatively backbench in the Senate, though she would have beaten Sasse.
NV: CCM
NH: Shaheen
NJ: Booker, and it’s not close
NM: Heinrich
NY: Schumer. Gillibrand’s presidential run hurts her ability to consolidate the anti-Schumer vote.
NC: Budd. Tillis has some issues on his right flank and I don’t think Democrats bail him out.
ND: Hoeven
OH: Vance, though Brown would have won this match-up had it taken place in 2018 or earlier (he probably never would have won any match-up with Portman, however).
OK: Lankford
OR: Wyden
PA: Casey, he has crossover appeal whereas Fetterman is despised by the Trump base.
RI: Whitehouse
SC: Scott in a landslide, with both Republicans and Democrats supporting him
SD: Thule
TN: Hagerty. Dems don’t like him but they absolutely despise Blackburn, and will gladly vote her out.
TX: Cornyn
UT: Romney. Universal Dem+moderate support and enough conservative support to edge out Lee.
VT: Sanders. R voters overwhelmingly go for Welch but there’s not enough of them to stop Bernie.
VA: Kaine
WA: Murray
WV: Capito, though Manchin would probably win any pre-2014 race here.
WI: Baldwin
WY: Barrasso

[progressive85]

Looking at this, it makes me wonder why the founders created two Senate seats for every state instead of just one.  Does anybody know what the exact purpose of having two was?  Maybe so that they could be up in different years?  Couldn't you do the three classes with just one senator per state?

sorry for that question aside, here's my list:

AL: Britt (R)
AK: Murkowski (R)
AZ: Kelly (D)
AR: Cotton (R)
CA: Padilla (D)
CO: Hickenlooper (D)
CT: Murphy (D)
DE: Coons (D)
FL: Rubio (R)
GA: Warnock (D)
HI: Hirono (D)
ID: Risch (R)
IL: Duckworth (D)
IN: Young (R)
IA: Grassley (R)
KS: Moran (R)
KY: Paul (R)
LA: Cassidy (R)
ME: King (I/D)
MD: Cardin (D)
MA: Warren (D)
MI: Peters (D)
MN: Klobuchar (D)
MS: Wicker (R)
MO: Hawley (R)
MT: Daines (R)
NE: Fischer (R)
NV: Cortez Masto (D)
NH: Shaheen (D)
NJ: Booker (D)
NM: Heinrich (D)
NY: Schumer (D)
NC: Budd (R)
ND: Hoeven (R)
OH: Vance (R)
OK: Mullin (R)
OR: Merkley (D)
PA: Casey (D)
RI: Whitehouse (D)
SC: Scott (R)
SD: Rounds (R)
TN: Blackburn (R)
TX: Cornyn (R)
UT: Romney (R)
VT: Sanders (I/D)
VA: Warner (D)
WA: Murray (D)
WV: Moore Capito (R)
WI: Baldwin (D)
WY: Barrasso (R)

So that's a total of 25 Republicans, 25 Democrats.  Oddly enough I guess there's not much of a difference from having 100 senators.  There's also only a handful states that I can see switching party control, which tells me that there's not going to be a lot of big swings in the upcoming Senate elections in 2024, 2026, 2028, etc...  Those days seem to be over.  I also noticed from making this list that every state's Senator is exactly aligned with the state's 2020 presidential vote, which is no coincidence either.

[MT Treasurer]

Some of these (e.g. Tuberville and Blackburn) would ironically be bailed out by Democratic support for their opponents, which would allow them to frame the race as a R vs. D contest.

AL: Tuberville (R), but fairly close
AK: Murkowski (R)
AZ: Kelly (D)
AR: Cotton (R), but closer than many think
CA: Padilla (D)
CO: Bennet (D)
CT: Blumenthal (D)
DE: Coons (D)
FL: Rubio (R), but closer than many think
GA: Warnock (D)
HI: Schatz (D)
ID: Crapo (R)
IL: Durbin (D)
IN: Young (R)
IA: Grassley (R)
KS: Moran (R)
KY: Paul (R), but fairly close
LA: Kennedy (R), not as close as some expect (Kennedy’s the wrong opponent for Cassidy)
ME: King (I/D)
MD: Van Hollen (D)
MA: Markey (D)
MI: Peters (D)
MN: Klobuchar (D)
MS: Wicker (R)
MO: Schmitt (R), but very close
NE: Ricketts (R)
NV: Cortez Masto (D)
NH: Shaheen (D)
NJ: Booker (D)
NM: Heinrich (D)
NY: Schumer (D)
NC: Budd (R)
ND: Cramer (R) in an upset
OH: Vance (R)
OK: Lankford (R)
OR: Wyden (D)
PA: Casey (D)
RI: Whitehouse (D)
SC: Scott (R)
SD: Rounds (R)
TN: Blackburn (R)
TX: Cornyn (R)
UT: Lee (R), but very close
VT: Sanders (I/D), but closer than many think
VA: Warner (D)
WA: Murray (D)
WV: Moore Capito (R)
WI: Baldwin (D), but very close
WY: Barrasso (R), but close

MT: