Is it possible that Minnesota votes to the right of MI and PA in 2024, or even flips to R?

[TheHLF]

I am not sure that Trump, who has done nothing to expand his base since 2016, could pull this off. I am aware that MN voted 54% for Obama/Biden in 2008 while WI gave 56% of the vote to Obama/Biden, but 2008 was 14 years ago. Bush won VA, CO, and NM in 2004, so things certainly change. I wonder if DeSantis or Pence could pull this off?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think the only scenario that would happen in would be a huge D wave in which Ds are easily carrying all 3.

MSP provides Dems a pretty hard floor in MN at this point, and while they can def still lose the state statewide at the federal level, that would suggest a national collapse in which Rs are easily winning PA and MI. If growth patterns and political coalitions roughly hold in 10 years, I could def see MSP locking Rs out of the state though.

I believe the last time MN was to the right of PA and MI was back in 2008, a D landslide. Yes Obama did fine in MN but he didn't get the same relative NUT margins he got out of many small-medium sized communities in places like PA, MI, WI, and OH.

That's part of the reason why at the federal level MN is a bit more immune to D waves; there aren't very many small/medium sized communities in the state other than like Rochester, Duluth, and St. Cloud. These are the communities that tend to be most reactive to wave elections.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

Hard to see this happening

[TDAS04]

It probably won’t happen in 2024, considering recent trends.

I remember some people predicting that Minnesota (and Wisconsin) would flip for Bush in 2004, while simultaneously stating that Ohio was going for Kerry!  (That would have produced the same EV count, oddly enough).

[TodayJunior]

It did happen in 2008, so it’s not out of the question. Seems to be a hard floor/ceiling of 44-46% for the gop no matter what.

To me, it’s safe D in terms of outcome.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why would this happen? What demographic trends in MN would cause us to go to the right of MI and PA?

[Fwillb21]

I should probably add that ALL of the MSP suburbs, even some of the exurbs, have been consistently voting blue lately.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I should probably add that ALL of the MSP suburbs, even some of the exurbs, have been consistently voting blue lately.

Yeah this is one of the things that makes MSP so unique. There is also a pretty steep cutoff between suburban and rural areas, largely thanks to rapid development and expansion of the suburbs. Only the northern/northwest side of the metro really seems to have any exurbs of note. These exurbs still lean R, but there aren't as expansive so don't net Rs anywhere near the votes a lot of other exurbs do in similarly sized metros.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Maybe to the right of Michigan - because I think it's possible Michigan swings pretty substantially left in 2024 - but I am very doubtful it could be to the right of both Michigan and Pennsylvania.

[Ferguson97]

If the Republicans win Minnesota, they've already won Michigan and Pennsylvania. Even if they do manage to win all three, Minnesota will still vote to the left of them.

[TheHLF]

Why would this happen? What demographic trends in MN would cause us to go to the right of MI and PA?

Absolutely none, but 2016 showed that Republicans could come very close to flipping MN (and NH.....and NV--I would add that 2020, and finally 2022, were even better for Republicans in Nevada).

Maybe to the right of Michigan - because I think it's possible Michigan swings pretty substantially left in 2024 - but I am very doubtful it could be to the right of both Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin may be more up in the air, but I don't think it's impossible that Biden holds Michigan while potentially losing Minnesota.....although, I DO ADMIT that if MN goes Republican, there is a HIGH chance the Republican candidate ALSO wins PA and WI.

If the Republicans win Minnesota, they've already won Michigan and Pennsylvania. Even if they do manage to win all three, Minnesota will still vote to the left of them.

PA, I agree. Michigan is trending hard left, in the way that Colorado is. Surely, in either 2024 or 2028 MN can be the "Michigan of 2016" (i.e. the only Rust Belt state to buck the trend by going for a D while the R wins every other Rust Belt state).

It did happen in 2008, so it’s not out of the question. Seems to be a hard floor/ceiling of 44-46% for the gop no matter what.

To me, it’s safe D in terms of outcome.

It's interesting that McCain/Palin of all tickets were able to achieve a great turnout/floor than a candidate like Romney or even Trump. McCain was despised by the base in 2008 for his perception as a moderate, if not liberal, Republican and Palin was liked by the base but was widely seen by educated, liberal voters (of which MN has many, be they Republicans or otherwise) as an idiot, so I am surprised that McCain/Palin of all tickets was able to do relatively well in MN, despite losing WI by a wider margin of 2 more points. MN has suburbs, and Romney was the candidate who performed better in the suburbs than any GOP candidate since Bush.

[emailking]

You got 10 replies dude. Patience.