Is DeSantis actually ahead of Trump nationally?

[Tekken_Guy]

Is Ron DeSantis actually ahead of Donald Trump nationally?

[Medal506]

No but I would say he’s neck and neck at this point. Some polls have him ahead and others have him slightly behind. He’s poised to win in Iowa and New Hampshire and probably run the table at this trajectory.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Trump probably commands 40% of the Republican primary voter base no matter what. It's going to come down to how many others run and split the anti-Trump vote.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     At the moment, seems like it. Will that be true in a year, who knows. Republican voters are hurting at the moment because of the resounding failure of Trump's favored candidates. Voters don't have a very long memory though, and I don't know if they will still be mad about this when the primaries actually roll around.

[Ferguson97]

No, but he’s the clear #2.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Trump still seems to be fairly clearly number one top dog in the Republican party.

One thing you have to remember about this forum is the "Republicans" on it are highly unrepresentative of actual Republicans. Most "Republicans" here are anti-Trump and didn't even vote for Trump in 2020. That is certainly not typical of actual Republicans.

So there is an inevitable and natural tendency for the "Republicans" here to talk in an echo chamber among themselves and imagine that more Republicans are turning against Trump than is actually the case, out of a hope that they can take back their party and turn it into something more recognizable to them as the GOP they remember and are desperately clinging on to.

[Xing]

He's probably only narrowly behind right now (among those paying attention), though I suspect he'll be in a much less favorable position in a year.

[Spectator]

He’s down 30 points in the latest National poll, wtf

[2016]

He’s down 30 points in the latest National poll, wtf

I don't give a PHUCK about National Polls, even you should know that. Early in a Presidential Cycle it's all about Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina on the Republican Side.

DeSantis wins 2 out of those 3 Trump is FINISHED. The National Race doesn't really start until after SC.

[MT Treasurer]

Trump still seems to be fairly clearly number one top dog in the Republican party.

One thing you have to remember about this forum is the "Republicans" on it are highly unrepresentative of actual Republicans. Most "Republicans" here are anti-Trump and didn't even vote for Trump in 2020. That is certainly not typical of actual Republicans.

So there is an inevitable and natural tendency for the "Republicans" here to talk in an echo chamber among themselves and imagine that more Republicans are turning against Trump than is actually the case, out of a hope that they can take back their party and turn it into something more recognizable to them as the GOP they remember and are desperately clinging on to.

Some urgent words of caution to you and other Democrats who use this reasoning to make or strengthen the case for Trump's inevitability in the primary: I and the more conservative/libertarian Republicans on this forum had exactly the same thoughts before the November elections: No matter what the vast majority of posters on this forum are posting, they live in their own echo chamber anyway and would never entertain a narrative other than the one which reflects their own liberal preferences. Because they have their obvious biases, everything they post must also be biased and wrong.

It turns out that you can create your own anti-echo-chamber echo chamber, esp. when you notice that (a) you’ve already made up your narrative beforehand and conveniently ignore or find yourself looking for reasons to disregard any data point which contradicts it and (b) your predictions are largely defined against the other side's consensus (or you make it a point to contradict the consensus). Take it from me: It wasn’t a pleasant experience.

I certainly think that neutralizing/emasculating Trump in a GOP primary will require a lot of psychological finesse, but assuming that it can’t be done under any circumstances and that the primary is effectively over is a sign of the same hubris and overconfidence that many of the right (myself included) displayed this year. People rarely learn the right lessons, but one thing I’ll at least try to keep in mind is that you really shouldn’t act like an outcome is set in stone unless there are many good reasons to believe that it is (and that is true only in a very rare number of cases). In this case, I don’t see how you could plausibly argue that. Even if you take polling at this early stage at face value, for instance, state and national polls paint a rather confusing/contradictory picture, with DeSantis generally doing better in (what I would argue are the more important) state polls.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The polling is all over the place and I feel like DeSantis is mostly riding high on a media bubble right now. What support he does have is likely quite soft, as opposed to Trump's, which is about as solid as you can get after every controversy he has endured. Whether or not DeSantis can solidify that support over the next year/year and a half will determine if he's a viable candidate.

[Spectator]

Trump still seems to be fairly clearly number one top dog in the Republican party.

One thing you have to remember about this forum is the "Republicans" on it are highly unrepresentative of actual Republicans. Most "Republicans" here are anti-Trump and didn't even vote for Trump in 2020. That is certainly not typical of actual Republicans.

So there is an inevitable and natural tendency for the "Republicans" here to talk in an echo chamber among themselves and imagine that more Republicans are turning against Trump than is actually the case, out of a hope that they can take back their party and turn it into something more recognizable to them as the GOP they remember and are desperately clinging on to.

Some urgent words of caution to you and other Democrats who use this reasoning to make or strengthen the case for Trump's inevitability in the primary: I and the more conservative/libertarian Republicans on this forum had exactly the same thoughts before the November elections: No matter what the vast majority of posters on this forum are posting, they live in their own echo chamber anyway and would never entertain a narrative other than the one which reflects their own liberal preferences. Because they have their obvious biases, everything they post must also be biased and wrong.

It turns out that you can create your own anti-echo-chamber echo chamber, esp. when you notice that (a) you’ve already made up your narrative beforehand and conveniently ignore or find yourself looking for reasons to disregard any data point which contradicts it and (b) your predictions are largely defined against the other side's consensus (or you make it a point to contradict the consensus). Take it from me: It wasn’t a pleasant experience.

I certainly think that neutralizing/emasculating Trump in a GOP primary will require a lot of psychological finesse, but assuming that it can’t be done under any circumstances and that the primary is effectively over is a sign of the same hubris and overconfidence that many of the right (myself included) displayed this year. People rarely learn the right lessons, but one thing I’ll at least try to keep in mind is that you really shouldn’t act like an outcome is set in stone unless there are many good reasons to believe that it is (and that is true only in a very rare number of cases). In this case, I don’t see how you could plausibly argue that. Even if you take polling at this early stage at face value, for instance, state and national polls paint a rather confusing/contradictory picture, with DeSantis generally doing better in (what I would argue are the more important) state polls.

I don’t think anyone here thinks Trump will 100% inevitably be the nominee. It’s just the likeliest scenario as of now, despite the mixed polling we’re getting. I think the GOP consultant class is wanting to push the narrative that he’s not favored right now, but I think they are underestimating the monster they created among the base by deifying him all these years. It’s gonna take a LOT for DeSantis to actually topple the Don. A few polls fresh off the midterms when DeSantis is riding a high while Trump has been at his lowest ever don’t convince me otherwise.

[ShamDam]

If polls have systematically underestimated Trump in general elections, why wouldn’t the same be true for the GOP primary?

[MT Treasurer]

Trump still seems to be fairly clearly number one top dog in the Republican party.

One thing you have to remember about this forum is the "Republicans" on it are highly unrepresentative of actual Republicans. Most "Republicans" here are anti-Trump and didn't even vote for Trump in 2020. That is certainly not typical of actual Republicans.

So there is an inevitable and natural tendency for the "Republicans" here to talk in an echo chamber among themselves and imagine that more Republicans are turning against Trump than is actually the case, out of a hope that they can take back their party and turn it into something more recognizable to them as the GOP they remember and are desperately clinging on to.

Some urgent words of caution to you and other Democrats who use this reasoning to make or strengthen the case for Trump's inevitability in the primary: I and the more conservative/libertarian Republicans on this forum had exactly the same thoughts before the November elections: No matter what the vast majority of posters on this forum are posting, they live in their own echo chamber anyway and would never entertain a narrative other than the one which reflects their own liberal preferences. Because they have their obvious biases, everything they post must also be biased and wrong.

It turns out that you can create your own anti-echo-chamber echo chamber, esp. when you notice that (a) you’ve already made up your narrative beforehand and conveniently ignore or find yourself looking for reasons to disregard any data point which contradicts it and (b) your predictions are largely defined against the other side's consensus (or you make it a point to contradict the consensus). Take it from me: It wasn’t a pleasant experience.

I certainly think that neutralizing/emasculating Trump in a GOP primary will require a lot of psychological finesse, but assuming that it can’t be done under any circumstances and that the primary is effectively over is a sign of the same hubris and overconfidence that many of the right (myself included) displayed this year. People rarely learn the right lessons, but one thing I’ll at least try to keep in mind is that you really shouldn’t act like an outcome is set in stone unless there are many good reasons to believe that it is (and that is true only in a very rare number of cases). In this case, I don’t see how you could plausibly argue that. Even if you take polling at this early stage at face value, for instance, state and national polls paint a rather confusing/contradictory picture, with DeSantis generally doing better in (what I would argue are the more important) state polls.

I don’t think anyone here thinks Trump will 100% inevitably be the nominee. It’s just the likeliest scenario as of now, despite the mixed polling we’re getting. I think the GOP consultant class is wanting to push the narrative that he’s not favored right now, but I think they are underestimating the monster they created among the base by deifying him all these years. It’s gonna take a LOT for DeSantis to actually topple the Don. A few polls fresh off the midterms when DeSantis is riding a high while Trump has been at his lowest ever don’t convince me otherwise.

There are actually several posters (mostly Democrats) here who think Trump will be the inevitable nominee.

I don’t expect you to be convinced, frankly — like I said in the other thread, people are clearly letting their personal preferences guide their predictions/analysis here, with most DeSantis detractors/Democrats arguing that he is completely overrated and predicting that he will lose and most non-Trump Republicans predicting DeSantis will win. It’s pretty obvious that both candidates have a path, and even the mixed polling you reference suggests that. It’s also hard to deny that Trump is now considerably more vulnerable than before the election — your theory that the DeSantis midterm bump will inevitably fade and that DeSantis has no room for improvement is just that, a theory like any other one.

Either way, my point was more that just because the preferences of the "consultant class" and Atlas Republicans may not have aligned with those of Republican primary voters in 2016 doesn’t mean that that will inevitably be the case again in 2024 or that you can use the former as an 'anti-predictor' of what will happen in the actual primaries. People love to stereotype Republican voters as mindless cultists devoted to a man rather than a cause, but I do think a large enough chunk of them cares about winning that DeSantis has a clear path to beating Trump — in fact, 'desire to finally win' was arguably the main reason Trump himself swept the primaries in 2016. However, it obviously won’t be a two-man race between Trump and DeSantis, so I agree that the kind of polling that’s currently being conducted favors DeSantis in that sense. Hell, we don’t even know whether he’ll run.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

He's perceived as more electable.  If he's going to actually advocate for Trump's policies without the Trump schtick he'll have something.

[Vosem]

If polls have systematically underestimated Trump in general elections, why wouldn’t the same be true for the GOP primary?

Mostly because they overestimated Trump in the 2016 primary by a lot, though we're getting to the point that that's ancient history, and lots of the 2024 polls suggest quite different demographic breakdowns than we saw in 2016.

No, but he’s the clear #2.

Yeah, this. If half the polls have a tie, and half have a Trump landslide, then it's hard to say DeSantis is ahead even if he is in a clear #2.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If polls have systematically underestimated Trump in general elections, why wouldn’t the same be true for the GOP primary?

The polls have also ended up underestimating DeSantis twice. Here is how they were in 2018

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/governor/#lite

Gillum led the polling averages on RCP by 3.6 points and the 538 Lite Forecast(which only takes into account polls) had Gillum winning by 4.3 points. So DeSantis overperformed RCP polling by 4 points and 538 by 4.7.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_crist-7324.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/florida/

DeSantis led the polling averages on RCP by 12.2 points and the 538 forecast had him winning by 13.5 points. So DeSantis overperformed RCP polling by 7.2 points and 538 forecast by 5.9 points.


 

[Ferguson97]

If polls have systematically underestimated Trump in general elections, why wouldn’t the same be true for the GOP primary?

The polls have also ended up underestimating DeSantis twice. Here is how they were in 2018

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/governor/#lite

Gillum led the polling averages on RCP by 3.6 points and the 538 Lite Forecast(which only takes into account polls) had Gillum winning by 4.3 points. So DeSantis overperformed RCP polling by 4 points and 538 by 4.7.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_crist-7324.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/florida/

DeSantis led the polling averages on RCP by 12.2 points and the 538 forecast had him winning by 13.5 points. So DeSantis overperformed RCP polling by 7.2 points and 538 forecast by 5.9 points.

I really don't think that you can compare a head-to-head gubernatorial poll with a crowded presidential primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't matter we solidified the blue wall again in 22

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

If polls have systematically underestimated Trump in general elections, why wouldn’t the same be true for the GOP primary?

The polls have also ended up underestimating DeSantis twice. Here is how they were in 2018

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/governor/#lite

Gillum led the polling averages on RCP by 3.6 points and the 538 Lite Forecast(which only takes into account polls) had Gillum winning by 4.3 points. So DeSantis overperformed RCP polling by 4 points and 538 by 4.7.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_crist-7324.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/florida/

DeSantis led the polling averages on RCP by 12.2 points and the 538 forecast had him winning by 13.5 points. So DeSantis overperformed RCP polling by 7.2 points and 538 forecast by 5.9 points.


 

That's more about polling in Florida underestimating Republicans generally than anything specific to DeSantis, given how the recent presidential and Senate polling has gone there. Totally irrelevant to a Republican primary.

Fwiw I wouldn't assume either has an intrinsic likelihood to beat their polls in the primary.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

Not yet

[DaleCooper]

If polls have systematically underestimated Trump in general elections, why wouldn’t the same be true for the GOP primary?

The polls have also ended up underestimating DeSantis twice. Here is how they were in 2018

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/governor/#lite

Gillum led the polling averages on RCP by 3.6 points and the 538 Lite Forecast(which only takes into account polls) had Gillum winning by 4.3 points. So DeSantis overperformed RCP polling by 4 points and 538 by 4.7.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_crist-7324.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/florida/

DeSantis led the polling averages on RCP by 12.2 points and the 538 forecast had him winning by 13.5 points. So DeSantis overperformed RCP polling by 7.2 points and 538 forecast by 5.9 points.

I really don't think that you can compare a head-to-head gubernatorial poll with a crowded presidential primary.

I don't think it will be very crowded after the first two states. There's no way that the not-Trump wing of the party goes into Super Tuesday fractured like they did in 2016. 

[Ferguson97]

If polls have systematically underestimated Trump in general elections, why wouldn’t the same be true for the GOP primary?

The polls have also ended up underestimating DeSantis twice. Here is how they were in 2018

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/governor/#lite

Gillum led the polling averages on RCP by 3.6 points and the 538 Lite Forecast(which only takes into account polls) had Gillum winning by 4.3 points. So DeSantis overperformed RCP polling by 4 points and 538 by 4.7.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_crist-7324.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/florida/

DeSantis led the polling averages on RCP by 12.2 points and the 538 forecast had him winning by 13.5 points. So DeSantis overperformed RCP polling by 7.2 points and 538 forecast by 5.9 points.

I really don't think that you can compare a head-to-head gubernatorial poll with a crowded presidential primary.

I don't think it will be very crowded after the first two states. There's no way that the not-Trump wing of the party goes into Super Tuesday fractured like they did in 2016. 

Are you sure about that?

[DaleCooper]

If polls have systematically underestimated Trump in general elections, why wouldn’t the same be true for the GOP primary?

The polls have also ended up underestimating DeSantis twice. Here is how they were in 2018

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/governor/#lite

Gillum led the polling averages on RCP by 3.6 points and the 538 Lite Forecast(which only takes into account polls) had Gillum winning by 4.3 points. So DeSantis overperformed RCP polling by 4 points and 538 by 4.7.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_crist-7324.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/florida/

DeSantis led the polling averages on RCP by 12.2 points and the 538 forecast had him winning by 13.5 points. So DeSantis overperformed RCP polling by 7.2 points and 538 forecast by 5.9 points.

I really don't think that you can compare a head-to-head gubernatorial poll with a crowded presidential primary.

I don't think it will be very crowded after the first two states. There's no way that the not-Trump wing of the party goes into Super Tuesday fractured like they did in 2016. 

Are you sure about that?

Well, I don't have ESP so I can't be sure about that, but I find it hard to believe that a bunch of losers are going to throw their careers away just to humiliate themselves and ensure that Trump wins again, especially seeing how when the Democrats dropped out before Super Tuesday it ended up helping both the Party as a whole and furthering the influence of most of those loser spoiler candidates.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Keep in mind in 2016 the non Trump field was extremely divided, with no one ever really being able to stand out while this time DeSantis utterly obliterates the other non Trump candidates in the polls and has done so for a while.