FL (Victory Insights): Biden+2 (v. Trump), DeSantis+6

[S019]

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1594844833348456450

Let's just say I'd be very surprised if that Biden v Trump number turned out to be right in the end.

[Agafin]

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1594844833348456450

Let's just say I'd be very surprised if that Biden v Trump number turned out to be right in the end.

The Rs are underestimated

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is still a BATTLEGROUND ST

[2016]

FL is still a BATTLEGROUND ST

No, it isn't. Even Biden would lose FL.

[Sir Mohamed]

Press X for doubt on these margins.

Biden should not bother to contest FL in 2024, even against Trump. Go all in for NC and make a push in TX. Perhaps even AK, though that's just worth 3 EVs.

[Mr.Phips]

We all know how Florida polling works by now.  Any Democrat needs to be leading by at least four points in the polling aggregate to win here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is still a BATTLEGROUND ST

No, it isn't. Even Biden would lose FL.

Lol in a Prez yr Miami Dade isn't going R Biden won it by 10 pts in 2020

[2016]

FL is still a BATTLEGROUND ST

No, it isn't. Even Biden would lose FL.

Lol in a Prez yr Miami Dade isn't going R Biden won it by 10 pts in 2020

Republicans don't need Dade County in a Pres Year but if they win Pinellas & Hillsborough they win. Simple Math my friend. Republicans also have a 305,000 Registration Advantage over Democrats in Florida so unless Biden pulls a rabbit out of his hat FLORIDA is gone. Republicans will continue to outregister Democrats in FL because of DeSantis Policies. Democrats could face a Registration Deficit of about 500,000 Voters in FL. Now tell me how they are gonna make this up? They basically have to bank on Republicans staying home and certainly in FL they won't do that I can guarantee you that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So by Florida standards this translates into Trump+4 and DeSantis+12 at least.

Adjusting polls to Republicans' benefit isn't such a universal thing anymore after this year, but it still applies to Florida. We all thought Florida polls would be accurate this year given how much DeSuckass and Rubio ended up leading by only for all of those polls to still somehow underestimate GOP support.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So by Florida standards this translates into Trump+4 and DeSantis+12 at least.

Adjusting polls to Republicans' benefit isn't such a universal thing anymore after this year, but it still applies to Florida. We all thought Florida polls would be accurate this year given how much DeSuckass and Rubio ended up leading by only for all of those polls to still somehow underestimate GOP support.

Rs never win in Prez yrs FL by more than 3 pts they won by 29 it's a Midterm

[Enduro]

The Biden vs Trump rematch has been a lot closer in polls than I expected so far. It would certainly be an interesting election cycle, but I really hope this isn't the case.

[2016]

The Florida Republican Party added yet another 20,000 newly Registered Voters in a 20-Day Period between October 11th (Book Closing Report for the Nov 8 GE and October 31)

R - 5,297,121
D - 4,970,554
Minor Parties - 263,352
NPA - 4,008,962
Total Reg Voters FL - 14,539,989
R-lead - 326,567

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't be bolstering about FL polls when Ds don't need it and Biden is at 50/49 and if an incumbent is at 50 percent Eday is over, we don't need FL it's wave insurance, but Scott is endangered because all his races he won by 1 percent, Rubio won by 20 because he being Cuban

Rassy polls has Biden I'm all his polls above watered and Rassy does polls for Fox news, do you know why Gas prices are 3.31 when Rs we're at its peak +7 in Fox polls on GCB Gas prices were 6.99

[Devils30]

Seems like trash but Rs will not win FL by 15 in a presidential year. Dems flat out didn't care this election.

[2016]

Seems like trash but Rs will not win FL by 15 in a presidential year. Dems flat out didn't care this election.

They will not win it by 15 BUT they could certainly win by 5-7 Points which would be a landslide by Florida Standards in a Presidential Year.

The Trendlines for Democrats in FL are absolutely disastrous. Unless Registrations in FL miraculously change Republicans will have an Registration Advantage in Florida that will be more what Democrats currently have in Pennsylvania. Think about that. Currently D's own a 560,000 to 570,000 Registration Advantage in PA.

There is a good chance Florida won't be contested since Democrats can win the White House without it. Why spent $$$$ in Florida when you can win without it?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Seems like trash but Rs will not win FL by 15 in a presidential year. Dems flat out didn't care this election.

They will not win it by 15 BUT they could certainly win by 5-7 Points which would be a landslide by Florida Standards in a Presidential Year.

The Trendlines for Democrats in FL are absolutely disastrous. Unless Registrations in FL miraculously change Republicans will have an Registration Advantage in Florida that will be more what Democrats currently have in Pennsylvania. Think about that. Currently D's own a 560,000 to 570,000 Registration Advantage in PA.

There is a good chance Florida won't be contested since Democrats can win the White House without it. Why spent $$$$ in Florida when you can win without it?

The Senate seat.  Not that I think either the Senate or Pres race in FL will go D, but they almost have to put some money in FL since their only other potential Senate pickup opportunity is TX.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't know if Matt Boswell is in or out it will be contested, DEMINGS isn't running she is out of cash, it's very expensive to run in FL but there is Matthew Sancrainte but we don't know how good he is because he is Gay that's why John Love is getting all the media attention because he is more competitive than Sancrainte in FL and he is in already and Ted Cruz has a 43/48 Approvals

Border wall is likely will be in Debt Ceiling because Obama and Biden signed it when Boehner was in office not Trump how can there not have been a Border wall with 247 Rs, Biden just didn't commit to it due to having a DH

I would ask my R collegues if Biden enforcement of the Border Wall what will a Prez DeSantis do except more white judges and more tax cuts than Biden gas is 3.00 already

[lfromnj]

Seems like trash but Rs will not win FL by 15 in a presidential year. Dems flat out didn't care this election.

They will not win it by 15 BUT they could certainly win by 5-7 Points which would be a landslide by Florida Standards in a Presidential Year.

The Trendlines for Democrats in FL are absolutely disastrous. Unless Registrations in FL miraculously change Republicans will have an Registration Advantage in Florida that will be more what Democrats currently have in Pennsylvania. Think about that. Currently D's own a 560,000 to 570,000 Registration Advantage in PA.

There is a good chance Florida won't be contested since Democrats can win the White House without it. Why spent $$$$ in Florida when you can win without it?

The Senate seat.  Not that I think either the Senate or Pres race in FL will go D, but they almost have to put some money in FL since their only other potential Senate pickup opportunity is TX.

They did put 70 million this year for the senate .

[2016]

Seems like trash but Rs will not win FL by 15 in a presidential year. Dems flat out didn't care this election.

They will not win it by 15 BUT they could certainly win by 5-7 Points which would be a landslide by Florida Standards in a Presidential Year.

The Trendlines for Democrats in FL are absolutely disastrous. Unless Registrations in FL miraculously change Republicans will have an Registration Advantage in Florida that will be more what Democrats currently have in Pennsylvania. Think about that. Currently D's own a 560,000 to 570,000 Registration Advantage in PA.

There is a good chance Florida won't be contested since Democrats can win the White House without it. Why spent $$$$ in Florida when you can win without it?

The Senate seat.  Not that I think either the Senate or Pres race in FL will go D, but they almost have to put some money in FL since their only other potential Senate pickup opportunity is TX.

They did put 70 million this year for the senate .

Emilys List & Moveon.org put 40M $ into the FL Senate Race this year to no avail + Rick Scott is very wealthy and can self finance meaning it frees up incoming NRSC Chair Steve Daines to spent the money elsewhere.
I am pretty convinced that Scott will win by more then in 2018 and Trump will win by more then 2020 in FL. FL is a complete MAGA State now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All we know is DeSantis is underpolled Biden he is of course winning FL now without any Biden ads and said out of his mouth he is against Student Loan Discharge just like Trump judges are pausing Student loans but he isn't winning by 20 he is performing like a Generic R the same Emerson poll that had Johnson winning by 5 has DeSantis losing by 4 so Rs can't cherry pick polls

Outside the Rubio yrs Rs in 2014 and 2018 underperforming in the polls in FL he only won by 1not 20 and 22 was a rematch of 2010 where Rubio defeated Crist and Meeks already so it wasn't a surprise that Rubio won but by 20 was a bit too much that won't happen Again

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Seems like trash but Rs will not win FL by 15 in a presidential year. Dems flat out didn't care this election.

They will not win it by 15 BUT they could certainly win by 5-7 Points which would be a landslide by Florida Standards in a Presidential Year.

The Trendlines for Democrats in FL are absolutely disastrous. Unless Registrations in FL miraculously change Republicans will have an Registration Advantage in Florida that will be more what Democrats currently have in Pennsylvania. Think about that. Currently D's own a 560,000 to 570,000 Registration Advantage in PA.

There is a good chance Florida won't be contested since Democrats can win the White House without it. Why spent $$$$ in Florida when you can win without it?

The Senate seat.  Not that I think either the Senate or Pres race in FL will go D, but they almost have to put some money in FL since their only other potential Senate pickup opportunity is TX.

They did put 70 million this year for the senate .

Emilys List & Moveon.org put 40M $ into the FL Senate Race this year to no avail + Rick Scott is very wealthy and can self finance meaning it frees up incoming NRSC Chair Steve Daines to spent the money elsewhere.
I am pretty convinced that Scott will win by more then in 2018 and Trump will win by more then 2020 in FL. FL is a complete MAGA State now.

There is zero campaign going on now as I said it depends on Matt Boswell, but if he isn't on the ballot of course we will move on to TX we need to wait til the campaign launches

Our takeover is NC Stein is leading in NC and of course OH because of Brown and he is an incumbent survived since 2006 so the Ryan comparison has no effect on Brown and then it's FL and TX we hold Brown and Tester or Manchin survived and Gallego defeats Sinema that's 51/50 S and if Manchin is gone we still cement the Filibuster proof Trifecta with a DH and FL or TX is our 51sr seat, that's why Ds want Feinstein gone too she doesn't want Filibuster REFORM

[pbrower2a]

Trump losing Florida closes the election as a news story except for details. +6 for Duce Santis is low for a Favorite Son, who should be winning his state by 10% if he has a chance nationally.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump losing Florida closes the election as a news story except for details. +6 for Duce Santis is low for a Favorite Son, who should be winning his state by 10% if he has a chance nationally.

EC map goes thru FL and VA, Biden with MN, MI, WI, PA is at 247 all he needs is 23 that's CO, NV plus VA or just FL for 276, Stephanie Murphy is considering but if she doesn't run we still have TX with John Love as a back up

NC IS THE SWING STATE DUE TO STEIN IS LEADING BY 2 BECAUSE OF COPPER STELLA APPROVALS

DeSantis isn't winning VA or AZ with Gallego or KAINE on the ballot