Would Robson have won for Arizona Governor?
Spectator:
This thread is really cringe in hindsight, even acknowledging my old post. Those “McCain Republicans” that voted Sinema/Kelly/Biden/Kelly (again)/Hobbs? That’s called a “Democrat”. No different from how those “Clinton Democrats” in Appalachia are voting straight Republican.
Progressive Pessimist:
Probably, but I still wouldn't count out Hobbs doing better than expected against her too.
Vosem:
Yes, and if anything surprisingly comfortably. The only Republican nominated statewide who wasn't either credibly accused of corruption or an election truther won by 12 points, and generic Republicans in state legislatorial races if anything did better than that. I doubt she would've won by double-digits, but she had a huge margin of error. (Hell, Lake might've won if she had avoided directly insulting large categories of voters.) Arizona Democrats actually still have a really low floor.
Quote from: Spectator on November 19, 2022, 09:12:12 PM
Probably? I don’t think it’s as simple as “Lake crazy” since it’s still worth noting that Lake did 4 points better than the other two leading election deniers, and that was I think because Lake was able to exploit Hobbs’ unwillingness to debate (as counterproductive as that debate would have been, it was probably a lose-lose for Hobbs). Hobbs still underperformed against Lake in a way I don’t know would have been applicable as against Robson. Masters still would have been weighing the ticket down with his incel-focused campaign.
Yes, an underrated part of the reason why Lake came so close but Masters/Finchem did worse is that Hobbs was a pretty bad candidate who was notoriously incompetent as state Secretary of State and made obvious missteps, while Kelly and Fontes ran very good campaigns. I suspect AZ-Gov 2026 is an underrated GOP pickup opportunity (IMO even in a Republican midterm).
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