Did Coolidge know what was going to happen in 1929?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The way he declined to run again by just handing out slips of paper stating that to reporters and refusing to comment further is kind of ominous. Not saying he was a time traveler or anything but most agree the crash of 1929 wasn't entirely unpredictable. Coolidge figuring something like that would happen is a pretty good explanation for him declining to run again.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I don't think so. That incident is weird, but not incongruous with Coolidge's minimalistic style with the press in general. He was also, while a terrible President in many ways, a fairly honest one as these things go, and I tend to believe he would have at least attempted some kind of policy change late in the going if he had seen where things were headed.

[Mechavada]

I don't think so. That incident is weird, but not incongruous with Coolidge's minimalistic style with the press in general. He was also, while a terrible President in many ways, a fairly honest one as these things go, and I tend to believe he would have at least attempted some kind of policy change late in the going if he had seen where things were headed.

This.

I should note that people put way too much emphasis a lot of the time on Coolidge winning the 1924 election as a sign of his popularity.  Was Coolidge popular during his presidency?  Yes.  Was the economy generally good during his presidency? (awkward silence) Well. . . . .  . . . it might have been "roaring" in several places but like any time policy makers focus too much on making the economy "roaring" there was the occasional downturn before an even bigger and more significant downturn occurred that cost millions of people their jobs.  In 1924 things were alright, the Democratic Party was a f***ing mess, and LaFollette's ticket took enough progressive Democrats from Davis to basically guarantee Coolidge a landslide.  After 1924 though?  Not so great.  In 1926 the Democrats won enough Senate seats to be just three short of a majority after having less than 40 seats before the election.  And then after that in 1927 the Great Mississippi Flood happened that caused massive damage killed hundreds of people (that we know of) and was basically Coolidge's Katrina.  It was his Katrina and it happened just A YEAR before re-election.

The consequences of this event would be multifold.  Herbert Hoover would establish himself as a national leader (and thus surpass Coolidge in a way) by constructing a levee project to reduce the likelihood of a future mega flood along the Mississippi River.  Huey Long would come to political prominence in Louisiana because of the issues that would come up during the recovery from the floods.  Calvin Coolidge probably would have won the 1928 general election but if Hoover got brave in 1928 with Coolidge still in the running there is a higher than zero chance the National Convention would have drafted Hoover over Coolidge.

Do I think this is why Coolidge didn't run in 1928?  I honestly think he was tired of the job but if there is an ulterior motive to him stepping down I think it'd be more immediately connected to these events than any "bad feeling" he had about the following year.

[Sir Mohamed]

Nah, I doubt. I think he was just tired of being prez and thought 10 years after serving out another hypothetical term would be too long. It's well known though he disliked Hoover and privately refered to him as "wonder boy".

[Mechavada]

Nah, I doubt. I think he was just tired of being prez and thought 10 years after serving out another hypothetical term would be too long. It's well known though he disliked Hoover and privately refered to him as "wonder boy".

Yes, and he had the type of personality that would rather avoid long drawn out conflicts and keep some sense of party unity, especially after the Progressive ticket split in 24.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Nah, I doubt. I think he was just tired of being prez and thought 10 years after serving out another hypothetical term would be too long. It's well known though he disliked Hoover and privately refered to him as "wonder boy".

Yes, and he had the type of personality that would rather avoid long drawn out conflicts and keep some sense of party unity, especially after the Progressive ticket split in 24.

Coolidge is probably the least personally ambitious man to become President since at least the Civil War (which isn't to say he was unambitious). This was someone who had a pair of pet lions and named them Tax Reduction and Budget Bureau. He actively and semi-deliberately diminished the pomp and circumstance of the Presidency while he held the office, which is part of why I have a soft spot for him despite condoning very few of his policies.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Coolidge is probably the least personally ambitious man to become President since at least the Civil War (which isn't to say he was unambitious). This was someone who had a pair of pet lions and named them Tax Reduction and Budget Bureau. He actively and semi-deliberately diminished the pomp and circumstance of the Presidency while he held the office, which is part of why I have a soft spot for him despite condoning very few of his policies.

One of the more English tendencies in New England.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I don't think so. That incident is weird, but not incongruous with Coolidge's minimalistic style with the press in general. He was also, while a terrible President in many ways, a fairly honest one as these things go, and I tend to believe he would have at least attempted some kind of policy change late in the going if he had seen where things were headed.

This.

I should note that people put way too much emphasis a lot of the time on Coolidge winning the 1924 election as a sign of his popularity.  Was Coolidge popular during his presidency?  Yes.  Was the economy generally good during his presidency? (awkward silence) Well. . . . .  . . . it might have been "roaring" in several places but like any time policy makers focus too much on making the economy "roaring" there was the occasional downturn before an even bigger and more significant downturn occurred that cost millions of people their jobs.  In 1924 things were alright, the Democratic Party was a f***ing mess, and LaFollette's ticket took enough progressive Democrats from Davis to basically guarantee Coolidge a landslide.  After 1924 though?  Not so great.  In 1926 the Democrats won enough Senate seats to be just three short of a majority after having less than 40 seats before the election.  And then after that in 1927 the Great Mississippi Flood happened that caused massive damage killed hundreds of people (that we know of) and was basically Coolidge's Katrina.  It was his Katrina and it happened just A YEAR before re-election.

The consequences of this event would be multifold.  Herbert Hoover would establish himself as a national leader (and thus surpass Coolidge in a way) by constructing a levee project to reduce the likelihood of a future mega flood along the Mississippi River.  Huey Long would come to political prominence in Louisiana because of the issues that would come up during the recovery from the floods.  Calvin Coolidge probably would have won the 1928 general election but if Hoover got brave in 1928 with Coolidge still in the running there is a higher than zero chance the National Convention would have drafted Hoover over Coolidge.

Do I think this is why Coolidge didn't run in 1928?  I honestly think he was tired of the job but if there is an ulterior motive to him stepping down I think it'd be more immediately connected to these events than any "bad feeling" he had about the following year.

Various things that might have happened during the 20s that would have been adverse politically, would naturally look like small potatoes compared to what started just a couple of years later. Hence the tendency to underestimate things like say the flood or the bad midterms or what have you. A similar midterm result occurred in 1922, the rural areas were being hammered as commodity prices dropped and Coolidge was ideologically opposed to passing bills aimed at helping the farmers.

It is easy to forget, but Hoover's strength in rural areas in 1928 is impressive considering the conditions economically in many of those areas already and the expectation that they would reject the incumbent party. Its a testament to his popularity, not being the incumbent President himself and the Democratic nominee being an urban, ethnic that made that result possible. This also explains why Hoover's collapse in his rural base is so thorough and complete, since things got much worse with the Depression starting.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Nah, I doubt. I think he was just tired of being prez and thought 10 years after serving out another hypothetical term would be too long. It's well known though he disliked Hoover and privately refered to him as "wonder boy".

Yes, and he had the type of personality that would rather avoid long drawn out conflicts and keep some sense of party unity, especially after the Progressive ticket split in 24.

Coolidge is probably the least personally ambitious man to become President since at least the Civil War (which isn't to say he was unambitious). This was someone who had a pair of pet lions and named them Tax Reduction and Budget Bureau. He actively and semi-deliberately diminished the pomp and circumstance of the Presidency while he held the office, which is part of why I have a soft spot for him despite condoning very few of his policies.

After the Trump era, most would find themselves longing for someone of Silent Cal's temperament.

[oldtimer]

The way he declined to run again by just handing out slips of paper stating that to reporters and refusing to comment further is kind of ominous. Not saying he was a time traveler or anything but most agree the crash of 1929 wasn't entirely unpredictable. Coolidge figuring something like that would happen is a pretty good explanation for him declining to run again.

There had been a lot of rumours from that period that Coolidge sold a lot of stock in 1929 of the Alleghany Coproration and got pretty rich at the expense of the suckers who bought.