Ralston: "almost complete final turnout figures in NV, and they are eye-opening."

[forsythvoter]

Just curious why folks think the Reid turnout machine was so effective this cycle given the extremely poor D turnout? If the Reid machine were effective, I don't think there would have been a more than double digit turnout gap between Ds and Rs in Clark county.

It feels to me like NV is a clear example of Rs getting the base turnout they needed to at least comfortably win statewide, but failing to appeal to Independents (who decisively broke D in almost all of the battleground races).

I mean, it was still a Biden midterm. I think the fact that Ds did what they did during a Biden midterm kind of proves it, no?

I think Ds undeniably did well, but I don't think you can attribute that to the D turnout machine given the partisan turnout actually favored Rs by quite a bit (not just in NV, but from I've seen in states like GA, PA, AZ) as well.

In NV's case, if the Reid machine did a lot of on-the-ground persuasion activities that convinced Indies and maybe some non-MAGA Rs to vote D, that might justify the claim that it was extremely effective, but given the Reid machine is really a Clark phenomenon and Washoe saw the same trend of Rs having a huge partisan voter edge but still losing decisively, I think what saved Ds in NV was a national trend of Rs turning off Is and perhaps moderate Rs for myriad reasons.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why I tell users, about counting chickens when there are more R Early votes than D votes with the exception of FL, 2010/16/22/28 where Rubio is on the ballot don't get overexcited over more R votes we have TX, FL, OH, MT and WV that will decide control of the S, Tester will run there isn't a viable D to replace him except Bullock it will be either Tester of Bullock running in 24/26 again I prefer Bullock I hope he runs in 24/26 again he can still win and Tester is very close to Bullock

That scenario played out in NV there were some more R votes than Ds because NV split their votes for Gov and Sen and likewise Hobbs won lesser degree than Kelly and Johnson beat expectations

That scenario can play out in 24 we win NC, FL, /VA but lose TX, OH and IA and we get a 51(49 S and 218/217D H

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Just curious why folks think the Reid turnout machine was so effective this cycle given the extremely poor D turnout? If the Reid machine were effective, I don't think there would have been a more than double digit turnout gap between Ds and Rs in Clark county.

It feels to me like NV is a clear example of Rs getting the base turnout they needed to at least comfortably win statewide, but failing to appeal to Independents (who decisively broke D in almost all of the battleground races).

The Culinary Union members' (I suspect many of whom are registered Indies) drop-off mail ballots were enough to guarantee victory for CCM and the Vegas-area House incumbents.

[Mr. Smith]

So the GOP might at last have a Florida on their hands?

[ProgressiveModerate]

This makes me question why so many see Rosen as the most vulnerable D incumbent Sen outside OH/MT/WV for 2024. Like if CCM was able to win despite unfavorable turnout dynamics, turnout dynamics which should equalize at least a bit in a Pres year, why would Rosen be the *most* vulnerable. It'd def be premature to say she has this in the bag and that Dems shouldn't invest here both at the Sen and Pres levels, but I think she should be a favorite.

[Agafin]

This makes me question why so many see Rosen as the most vulnerable D incumbent Sen outside OH/MT/WV for 2024. Like if CCM was able to win despite unfavorable turnout dynamics, turnout dynamics which should equalize at least a bit in a Pres year, why would Rosen be the *most* vulnerable. It'd def be premature to say she has this in the bag and that Dems shouldn't invest here both at the Sen and Pres levels, but I think she should be a favorite.

Because there's no guarantee that Indy's will be as democratic in 2024? The issues that made them break heavily towards democrats (abortion, trump, bad candidates) might not be as salient in 2024, just like the issue that helped republicans in 2020 (defund the police) and 2021 (covid lockdowns) don't matter now. So higher base turnout could be countered by lower indy support.

Like someone else said, Nevada is the republican version of what Florida was to democrats in the last decade, a fustratingly tilt D (resp. R) state.

[wbrocks67]

This makes me question why so many see Rosen as the most vulnerable D incumbent Sen outside OH/MT/WV for 2024. Like if CCM was able to win despite unfavorable turnout dynamics, turnout dynamics which should equalize at least a bit in a Pres year, why would Rosen be the *most* vulnerable. It'd def be premature to say she has this in the bag and that Dems shouldn't invest here both at the Sen and Pres levels, but I think she should be a favorite.

Because there's no guarantee that Indy's will be as democratic in 2024? The issues that made them break heavily towards democrats (abortion, trump, bad candidates) might not be as salient in 2024, just like the issue that helped republicans in 2020 (defund the police) and 2021 (covid lockdowns) don't matter now. So higher base turnout could be countered by lower indy support.

Like someone else said, Nevada is the republican version of what Florida was to democrats in the last decade, a fustratingly tilt D (resp. R) state.

Again though, in terms of NV, we need to remember that a decent chunk of Independents are now young voters because they automatically get registered as Indies when they register to vote.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/ElonMusgraves/status/1604292306252832769

https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1604479095479230464

[KaiserDave]

That DSA takeover sure destroyed the party.

The battle was won not by the DSA but by the Democrats who unanimously resigned after the DSA takeover, split off from the DSA loons, and continued Reid's machine as if they still controlled the party.

And if Masto lost, you'd be laying the blame at the DSA. But we both knew that.

I really wouldn't. Is there even any record of me blaming them before the election when I thought CCM would probably lose? No. Because the DSA has been powerless ever since the "takeover" and I knew that. It wouldn't make sense.

Let's try to think logically rather than emotionally, because believe it or not that's actually what I try to do, rather than just side instinctively with my "team." (I have, after all, given credit where it is due before even if I despise the people doing it; you'll never catch me saying Mitch McConnell isn't a highly effective politician, for instance.)

Can you point to anything the DSA did to help CCM and the House Democrats win this election? At best you can say they weren't actively harmful. But this election was won by two things: Swaying independents and swing voters in the middle and turning out the old Reid machine. It certainly was not the product of a democratic socialist revolution. Claiming it as a victory for the DSA is completely asinine, at least as much as blaming it all on them would have been had it gone the other way. And who's to say you would not be blaming the old guard Democrats who split off after the takeover had CCM lost, despite crediting a DSA victory now? I'm guessing you probably were more ready to do that than I ever was to blame the DSA. I knew who was in charge in Nevada, and thus who would bear the responsibility for either victory or defeat.

I've already said on this board that neither the "Reid machine" nor the DSA deserve credit for Democrats doing well in Nevada. Good organizing has nothing to do with ideology or who the leadership supported in a primary. Nowhere else in the country is this debate being had.

Harry Reid is no longer around, the Culinary Union still is, and so is the same infrastructure that the icky DSAers used to the party's advantage. You are the one who's giving credit - specifically, to Democrats who split when they didn't get their way in the party - for the party's success.

The Culinary Union IS the Reid machine. The “Reid machine” is not dependent on Harry Reid being alive it’s just a name because he built it. This year the machine was organized through the Washoe Dems, it doesn’t make one difference to me who runs the state party I’m saying this because I think it’s worth mentioning.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/ElonMusgraves/status/1604292306252832769

Mercedes-Krause came only 2680 votes short of Valadao/Duarte combined

She also got 14,519 more votes than the total number cast in Valadao's district this year

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-coalition-2022-senate-democrats/

More of the NV vote was from the rest of Metro Las Vegas (Paradise, Spring Valley, etc) than I would’ve expected. Not sure which this means for interpreting the NV-3 results or what happened with AAPI turnout.

The three largest cities in Nevada — Las Vegas, Henderson and North Las Vegas — are all based in Clark County, and using precinct-level data, we can see that Cortez Masto did a tad better than Biden in wealthier and whiter Henderson while losing a little ground in the more racially and ethnically diverse Las Vegas and North Las Vegas. While she lost Henderson, a more well-educated GOP-leaning city that’s 60 percent white, Cortez Masto actually did 1 point better than Biden. And though she easily carried Las Vegas (42 percent white) and North Las Vegas (just 24 percent), Cortez Masto’s margin of victory was 1 point lower than Biden in the former and 2 points lower in the latter.

These are small differences, to be sure, but given the closeness of the race, every little shift mattered. Moreover, Cortez Masto performed almost identically to Biden in Washoe County as a whole, which looks similar to Henderson, another sign that whiter, wealthier and more educated areas in the two major metropolitan centers of the state didn’t break for the GOP but instead helped Cortez Masto stay in office. Turnout was also part of the story, however, as Clark had the sharpest drop in vote share amongst all Nevada counties compared with 2020’s vote totals, and more diverse places like Las Vegas and North Las Vegas saw steeper declines than whiter and more affluent areas like Henderson.

[wbrocks67]

Given turnout midterm dynamics, Masto only doing like 2-3% worse than Biden even in more minority-heavy areas actually isn't too bad.

[Builder Refused]

Given turnout midterm dynamics, Masto only doing like 2-3% worse than Biden even in more minority-heavy areas actually isn't too bad.

I think the turnout aspect is somewhat overrated. Democrats can do well in midterms, and they can do badly, but low frequency voters aren't really guaranteed to be Democratic. The most likely explanation for someone's who's low frequency voting is probably that some issue particularly irritates or pleases them, or even some sort of peer pressure. In 2020 Biden did this in part, probably, because of people who hate woke stuff but are still more cosmopolitan than most Republicans. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/11/09/ambivalent-right/
I could see Masto maybe doing better with people who are pro labor but less socially liberal, but it isn't guaranteed that increased turnout is due to things that are good for democrats
This was the turnout for groups defined by Pew Research. 4 is the one I shared. 1 to 4 are very Republican, 5 to 9 are very Democrat, 5 is split.
1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9
85 78 67 55 45 57 68 78 86

[Person Man]

Given turnout midterm dynamics, Masto only doing like 2-3% worse than Biden even in more minority-heavy areas actually isn't too bad.

Doing 2% worse when the party did 6% worse isn’t bad.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1606462503114149888