2022 House popular vote with adjustment to uncontested races

[David Hume]

I did the calculation using the third method I described in a previous post. This is the map of HPV in each state. The NPV is R+1.70.



This is the map compared to NPV.



It's interesting that GA voted to the right of NC. AZ and WI are still barely to the right of the country, but PA is to the left. If 2024 is a neutral year, and there is a uniform swing, R will barely win the presidency based on statewide HPV. But if it is  D+2, D will win every Biden state except GA.

[David Hume]

I did the calculation using the third method I described in a previous post. This is the map of HPV in each state. The NPV is R+1.70.



This is the map compared to NPV.



It's interesting that GA voted to the right of NC. AZ and WI are still barely to the right of the country, but PA is to the left. If 2024 is a neutral year, and there is a uniform swing, R will barely win the presidency based on statewide HPV. But if it is  D+2, D will win every Biden state except GA.

This is the shift from 2020 HPV.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The fact that Florida tends to be one of the earlier states to quickly report results really made things look way worse for Ds than they turned out to be. The swing from 2020 map really makes that clear, with Florida standing out, along with NY.

Basically it was a wave in Florida and NY, with Rs also doing well in the south outside of significant metro areas.

But everywhere else, not much gain for the Republicans and Dems held pretty strong, considering the circumstances of it being a Biden midterm with him having not great approvals etc.

[Spectator]

I did the calculation using the third method I described in a previous post. This is the map of HPV in each state. The NPV is R+1.70.



This is the map compared to NPV.



It's interesting that GA voted to the right of NC. AZ and WI are still barely to the right of the country, but PA is to the left. If 2024 is a neutral year, and there is a uniform swing, R will barely win the presidency based on statewide HPV. But if it is  D+2, D will win every Biden state except GA.

This is the shift from 2020 HPV.

Maine should be slightly to the left of 2020. Both Pingree and Golden won by slightly larger margins.

[David Hume]

I did the calculation using the third method I described in a previous post. This is the map of HPV in each state. The NPV is R+1.70.



This is the map compared to NPV.



It's interesting that GA voted to the right of NC. AZ and WI are still barely to the right of the country, but PA is to the left. If 2024 is a neutral year, and there is a uniform swing, R will barely win the presidency based on statewide HPV. But if it is  D+2, D will win every Biden state except GA.

This is the shift from 2020 HPV.

Maine should be slightly to the left of 2020. Both Pingree and Golden won by slightly larger margins.

In my calculation I only used first round result

[coloradocowboi]

Looking at Wisconsin on this map infuriates me.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The fact that Florida tends to be one of the earlier states to quickly report results really made things look way worse for Ds than they turned out to be. The swing from 2020 map really makes that clear, with Florida standing out, along with NY.

Same deal as 2020. I probably would've held up better on Election Night had Florida & Miami-Dade not set the tone for the entire night.