Is 2024 NPV Safe D?

[TheReckoning]

Given the results of the 2020 midterms, and Trump declaring his candidacy, can the 2024 NPV be declared safe for the Democrats?

[oldtimer]

No.

Republicans lost the midterms because they did lousy in all the states except California, New York and Florida.
They won the popular vote in a good midterm for Democrats so you would expect them to win the popular vote in 2024 too when the college vote will go down as a share.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The election is two years away and we have no idea what the economy will do between now and then. Preposterously premature question.

[Ferguson97]

If I had to put money on it today, I would bet that the Democrats win the national popular vote.

BUT a lot can change in 2 years. In 2012 and 2016, it was conventional wisdom that Romney or Trump might win the popular vote but lose the electoral college.

Especially when you consider that Republican won by a landslide in Florida and cut into the Democratic margins in Safe D states like California and New York, it's not at all implausible that Democrats could win the elecotral college by a fair margin while losing the NPV in a squeaker.

[oldtimer]

If I had to put money on it today, I would bet that the Democrats win the national popular vote.

BUT a lot can change in 2 years. In 2012 and 2016, it was conventional wisdom that Romney or Trump might win the popular vote but lose the electoral college.

Especially when you consider that Republican won by a landslide in Florida and cut into the Democratic margins in Safe D states like California and New York, it's not at all implausible that Democrats could win the elecotral college by a fair margin while losing the NPV in a squeaker.

Republicans won the national House vote probably by 3, but lost Pennsylvania by 5 in the closest state race.

The in closest Arizona and Georgia state results Democrats still won by 1. 

That tells you a lot.

The "tipping point" states where D+4 from the national average, like 2012.

The only problem for Democrats is that the white college vote will go down as a share in presidential elections.

[soundchaser]

With Trump as the nominee, it's probably close to Likely D. With anyone else? Nobody's prognostication skills are THAT good.

[emailking]

I think we need polling and proximity to the election for Safe or Likely D. But it's probably Lean D based on the last 30 years.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Likely D.

Unless there is a major scandal/circumstance affecting Biden or the Democratic nominee (if it's not Biden), the Democratic presidential nominee will win the popular vote. That has been the case for the past 30 years (except 2004) and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

A Republican presidential candidate in more recent times has to win the electoral college alone if they end up elected as president. That will be the case in 2024 as well.

[President Johnson]

No, I wouldn't say so. More like Lean or Likely Democratic.

It's not impossible for a Republican to win the popular vote. However, unlikely Trump is the guy that can do it. DeSantis? Maybe.

[lfromnj]

I dont think the ca or ny results mean much but FL could be a solid base for building a GOP PV victory due to how demoralized FL dems are and the fact they may not get any support in 2024.

[Torrain]

No, I wouldn't say so. More like Lean or Likely Democratic.

It's not impossible for a Republican to win the popular vote. However, unlikely Trump is the guy that can do it. DeSantis? Maybe.

^This is where I'm at. The GOP should definitely be able to win the NPV, but I sincerely doubt Trump can do it, especially in his third attempt - given his prior results.

[Alben Barkley]

Likely D. The Rs winning the House Popular Vote this year means little as there were far more uncontested GOP-held seats than Democratic-held seats. There is no universe in which Trump, who never got as much of the vote as even John Kerry or Mitt Romney and is particularly unpopular, wins the popular vote so it’s Safe D with him. But DeSantis could make it closer, especially if he wins Florida by a landslide margin. I kinda hope it happens that the Dems win the EC while losing the NPV for once somehow. Then perhaps we could get rid of the EC for good finally.

[Agafin]

Trump cannot win the popular vote, he'd probably do worse than in 2020.

Desantis could though it's too early to tell. He could win the southern states by even bigger margins than usual (FL+15, TX +10, MS+25, AL+30 etc.) and also cut the d margin in blue states (New York +15, CA +20, VI +5 etc). That would mean a very inefficient vote distribution though.

[SN2903]

Too early. If the economy tanks all bets are off on anything. Dems could def lose the PV

[Sir Mohamed]

No, I wouldn't say so. More like Lean or Likely Democratic.

It's not impossible for a Republican to win the popular vote. However, unlikely Trump is the guy that can do it. DeSantis? Maybe.

^This is where I'm at. The GOP should definitely be able to win the NPV, but I sincerely doubt Trump can do it, especially in his third attempt - given his prior results.

Yup, Trump isn't going to do it. He never even get more than the 47.1% of the NPV that Romney won in 2012.

As for DeSantis, it remains to be seen. Ironically, I think Trump might have a easier path to winning 270 EVs. At least for now, since it's unclear how DeSantis fares in the Rust Belt trio.

[SN2903]

No, I wouldn't say so. More like Lean or Likely Democratic.

It's not impossible for a Republican to win the popular vote. However, unlikely Trump is the guy that can do it. DeSantis? Maybe.

^This is where I'm at. The GOP should definitely be able to win the NPV, but I sincerely doubt Trump can do it, especially in his third attempt - given his prior results.

Yup, Trump isn't going to do it. He never even get more than the 47.1% of the NPV that Romney won in 2012.

As for DeSantis, it remains to be seen. Ironically, I think Trump might have a easier path to winning 270 EVs. At least for now, since it's unclear how DeSantis fares in the Rust Belt trio.

Again all bets are off. Dems need to get out of this notion that things can't happen. Anything can happen. If the economy tanks it won't be like 2022. Biden will be blamed and anything can happen including dems losing the popular vote.

[Sir Mohamed]

No, I wouldn't say so. More like Lean or Likely Democratic.

It's not impossible for a Republican to win the popular vote. However, unlikely Trump is the guy that can do it. DeSantis? Maybe.

^This is where I'm at. The GOP should definitely be able to win the NPV, but I sincerely doubt Trump can do it, especially in his third attempt - given his prior results.

Yup, Trump isn't going to do it. He never even get more than the 47.1% of the NPV that Romney won in 2012.

As for DeSantis, it remains to be seen. Ironically, I think Trump might have a easier path to winning 270 EVs. At least for now, since it's unclear how DeSantis fares in the Rust Belt trio.

Again all bets are off. Dems need to get out of this notion that things can't happen. Anything can happen. If the economy tanks it won't be like 2022. Biden will be blamed and anything can happen including dems losing the popular vote.

Can they happen? Sure. Is it likely to happen? Actually not. At least not unless we see larger shifts in the more populous states. FL alone doesn't make it and it might not be as red in 2024 as it was this year (though still Likely/Safe R at this point).

[SN2903]

No, I wouldn't say so. More like Lean or Likely Democratic.

It's not impossible for a Republican to win the popular vote. However, unlikely Trump is the guy that can do it. DeSantis? Maybe.

^This is where I'm at. The GOP should definitely be able to win the NPV, but I sincerely doubt Trump can do it, especially in his third attempt - given his prior results.

Yup, Trump isn't going to do it. He never even get more than the 47.1% of the NPV that Romney won in 2012.

As for DeSantis, it remains to be seen. Ironically, I think Trump might have a easier path to winning 270 EVs. At least for now, since it's unclear how DeSantis fares in the Rust Belt trio.

Again all bets are off. Dems need to get out of this notion that things can't happen. Anything can happen. If the economy tanks it won't be like 2022. Biden will be blamed and anything can happen including dems losing the popular vote.

Can they happen? Sure. Is it likely to happen? Actually not. At least not unless we see larger shifts in the more populous states. FL alone doesn't make it and it might not be as red in 2024 as it was this year (though still Likely/Safe R at this point).

There's always shifts that people don't anticipate from election to election.

[Skill and Chance]

No, not at all.  If anything, Republicans will most likely win the PV the next time they win the presidency.  NYC is trending R really hard now and the big cities in California also are, but to a lesser degree. 

[Del Tachi]

Likely D. The Rs winning the House Popular Vote this year means little as there were far more uncontested GOP-held seats than Democratic-held seats. There is no universe in which Trump, who never got as much of the vote as even John Kerry or Mitt Romney and is particularly unpopular, wins the popular vote so it’s Safe D with him. But DeSantis could make it closer, especially if he wins Florida by a landslide margin. I kinda hope it happens that the Dems win the EC while losing the NPV for once somehow. Then perhaps we could get rid of the EC for good finally.

Even if you adjust for non-contested seats, the GOP is probably going to win the House popular vote by 1-2 points. 

To answer the broader question, the tea leaves from 2022 suggest that the GOP is actually on track to give up its advantage in the electoral college.  Gaining in CA/FL/NY is mostly wasted votes while it looks like AZ/GA as well as the rust belt trio of MI/PA/WI will end-up voting to the left of the nation as a whole.  2024-2028 may see Democrats with a structural advantage in the EC once again.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Likely D. The Rs winning the House Popular Vote this year means little as there were far more uncontested GOP-held seats than Democratic-held seats. There is no universe in which Trump, who never got as much of the vote as even John Kerry or Mitt Romney and is particularly unpopular, wins the popular vote so it’s Safe D with him. But DeSantis could make it closer, especially if he wins Florida by a landslide margin. I kinda hope it happens that the Dems win the EC while losing the NPV for once somehow. Then perhaps we could get rid of the EC for good finally.

Even if you adjust for non-contested seats, the GOP is probably going to win the House popular vote by 1-2 points. 

To answer the broader question, the tea leaves from 2022 suggest that the GOP is actually on track to give up its advantage in the electoral college.  Gaining in CA/FL/NY is mostly wasted votes while it looks like AZ/GA as well as the rust belt trio of MI/PA/WI will end-up voting to the left of the nation as a whole.  2024-2028 may see Democrats with a structural advantage in the EC once again.

This forum keeps evaluating the results in the context of the expectations instead of the actual results. This is correct; the GOP win the adjusted PV by 1-2 points. They’re just not getting credit for it because they did it primarily in safe states instead of swing states. But they did in fact earn the majority by making huge gains in the 4 biggest states.

As for the answer to the question, no it is lean D. Incumbent presidents generally win, and this one won by more than 4 point last time.

There’s also a good chance that the EC advantage is gone. You can make the argument that some of the big state gains for the GOP were thanks to low democrat turnout. Even considering this, it’s unlikely that California goes by 30+ again or that Texas goes by less than 6. Meanwhile, Wisconsin and North Carolina are the only swing states that look promising and even these had some great signs for democrats this cycle.

[SN2903]

No, not at all.  If anything, Republicans will most likely win the PV the next time they win the presidency.  NYC is trending R really hard now and the big cities in California also are, but to a lesser degree. 

The PV is trending GOP the EC is trending more dem so GOP could win PV while getting under 300 EV next time like GA, AZ, WI, NV

[President Johnson]

Likely D. The Rs winning the House Popular Vote this year means little as there were far more uncontested GOP-held seats than Democratic-held seats. There is no universe in which Trump, who never got as much of the vote as even John Kerry or Mitt Romney and is particularly unpopular, wins the popular vote so it’s Safe D with him. But DeSantis could make it closer, especially if he wins Florida by a landslide margin. I kinda hope it happens that the Dems win the EC while losing the NPV for once somehow. Then perhaps we could get rid of the EC for good finally.

Even if you adjust for non-contested seats, the GOP is probably going to win the House popular vote by 1-2 points. 

To answer the broader question, the tea leaves from 2022 suggest that the GOP is actually on track to give up its advantage in the electoral college.  Gaining in CA/FL/NY is mostly wasted votes while it looks like AZ/GA as well as the rust belt trio of MI/PA/WI will end-up voting to the left of the nation as a whole.  2024-2028 may see Democrats with a structural advantage in the EC once again.

Interesting analysis. Do you see a scenario for the Democrats winning the electoral college while losing the popular vote?

[Figueira]

I'm rooting for Democrats to win the electoral college and lose the popular vote, so we can get a bipartisan movement to end the electoral college once and for all.

[Skill and Chance]

Likely D. The Rs winning the House Popular Vote this year means little as there were far more uncontested GOP-held seats than Democratic-held seats. There is no universe in which Trump, who never got as much of the vote as even John Kerry or Mitt Romney and is particularly unpopular, wins the popular vote so it’s Safe D with him. But DeSantis could make it closer, especially if he wins Florida by a landslide margin. I kinda hope it happens that the Dems win the EC while losing the NPV for once somehow. Then perhaps we could get rid of the EC for good finally.

Even if you adjust for non-contested seats, the GOP is probably going to win the House popular vote by 1-2 points. 

To answer the broader question, the tea leaves from 2022 suggest that the GOP is actually on track to give up its advantage in the electoral college.  Gaining in CA/FL/NY is mostly wasted votes while it looks like AZ/GA as well as the rust belt trio of MI/PA/WI will end-up voting to the left of the nation as a whole.  2024-2028 may see Democrats with a structural advantage in the EC once again.

Interesting analysis. Do you see a scenario for the Democrats winning the electoral college while losing the popular vote?

It probably looks something like this:



Alternatively, maybe this a little further down the line: