How did Trump do so well in NH in 2016 considering NH consisntely rejects MAGA at federal level?
GALeftist:
I don't know what it was about her but white longtime Democrats just detested Hillary Clinton. I mean, there's undeniably some appeal that Trump had to these voters as well, but MN being D+1.5 and ME being D+3 were both beyond embarrassing as well, especially when both subsequently decisively returned to the Democratic column. I mean, she got 56% of the vote in Vermont, for crying out loud. That is a candidate specific issue. I'm reminded of a friend of mine who was living in Kalamazoo during the time telling me that his perception of the election there was more or less "I mean, I'll vote for her to keep Trump out, but I do believe she's assassinated people at least once or twice."
Cyrusman:
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 16, 2022, 01:42:51 PM
The same reason he won Michigan and Pennsylvania despite those two states rejecting MAGA candidates in 2020 and 2022 - Hillary Clinton was a very weak candidate.
I don't think its the same. Trump had a special appeal to the rust belt region of the country and actually did well on those 2 states even though he lost in 2020.
TheElectoralBoobyPrize:
Everyone's saying Hillary so I'll say something different: Trump had an appeal in the state (and in other New England states) in 2016 that he just wouldn't have afterwards.
Sir Mohamed:
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 16, 2022, 01:42:51 PM
The same reason he won Michigan and Pennsylvania despite those two states rejecting MAGA candidates in 2020 and 2022 - Hillary Clinton was a very weak candidate.
Pretty much this, and the high share of 3rd party candidates. Trump didn't even get 47% of the vote in NH. A better D-candidate like Obama or Biden could have won 54-46%, with Trump's vote share staying stagnant.
That's also the reason he come close in MN, where Trump received 44.9% of the vote. It was just close because HRC only ended up with ~46%. A more popular Dem would have cleared 50%, increasing the margin by more than 3 times.
Generally speaking, people need to remember that Trump just won 46.1% of the NPV, which is barely more than McCain's 45.7% in 2008 and less than Romney '12, who got 47.2%.
Cyrusman:
Quote from: TheElectoralBoobyPrize on February 02, 2023, 06:50:30 PM
Everyone's saying Hillary so I'll say something different: Trump had an appeal in the state (and in other New England states) in 2016 that he just wouldn't have afterwards.
What appeal did he have in New England in 2016 that would quickly fade?
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