Will Democrats win the Georgia Governorship in 2026?

[Del Tachi]

If Trump is president, then probably so but I think Republicans would win an open contest during a Biden midterm. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

Probably down to the environment, and if Rs nominate a competent candidate.

The Dem sweep of the 2021 runoffs was a combination of it being the peak of the post-2020 ballot harvesting fearmongering (which I'm certain hurt turnout), plus Loeffler's big insider trading scandal. In 2022, the issue for Rs was that Walker was a horrible candidate.

This is doubtful given that Perdue lost by a similar margin. In fact, the 2021 runoffs arguably foreshadowed the historic Republican national underperformance in the November 2022 elections.

As for the question, it’s very possible even in a R-friendly environment. At this point, I don’t think there are many Republicans in GA who could win a primary and also avoid a runoff (-> automatic D advantage) in the GE.

I think this is going to be a huge problem Rs will need to address going forwards; in many states I think the current R incumbents might be the only "non-Trumpy" R who has the ability to win a primary in normal circumstances. Once they're term-limited or just retire, the GOP will have a harder time winning elections.

A lot can change by 2026 though and maybe the Republican primary voters begin to see that some of these people they're nominating keep losing GEs, and will choose more palatable folks.

[Pericles]

It feels like it will be an Arizona 2022 repeat.

[Spectator]

Probably down to the environment, and if Rs nominate a competent candidate.

The Dem sweep of the 2021 runoffs was a combination of it being the peak of the post-2020 ballot harvesting fearmongering (which I'm certain hurt turnout), plus Loeffler's big insider trading scandal. In 2022, the issue for Rs was that Walker was a horrible candidate.

This is doubtful given that Perdue lost by a similar margin. In fact, the 2021 runoffs arguably foreshadowed the historic Republican national underperformance in the November 2022 elections.

As for the question, it’s very possible even in a R-friendly environment. At this point, I don’t think there are many Republicans in GA who could win a primary and also avoid a runoff (-> automatic D advantage) in the GE.

I think this is going to be a huge problem Rs will need to address going forwards; in many states I think the current R incumbents might be the only "non-Trumpy" R who has the ability to win a primary in normal circumstances. Once they're term-limited or just retire, the GOP will have a harder time winning elections.

A lot can change by 2026 though and maybe the Republican primary voters begin to see that some of these people they're nominating keep losing GEs, and will choose more palatable folks.

I do think there’s a lot of truth to that in that incumbent “non-Trumpy” officeholders fended off Trump kamikazeists, but I’m doubtful that, for example, Brad Raffensperger would win a primary for Governor. There’s a difference between renominating him for Secretary of State versus nominating him in an open seat race for Governor. The Fulton County indictment would probably destroy his chances for a primary run for Governor in 2026.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not Stacey Abrams, probably. She's done.

Ego and fame got in her head. Should have stayed low.

Can't be Stacey Evans either because black people won't turn out.

Jon Ossoff, if he is tired of DC.

A young handsome governor is what Democrats need heading into the 2030s.

Heavily depends on the R nominee. Raffensperger would be favored to win, just like Kemp.

I think Burt Jones, the next Lt. Gov, will almost certainly be the nominee. He's supported by all wings of the party and even got an endorsement from Kwanza Hall.

How did he manage to do this? He's an election denier.

Hall being a sour loser after Charlie Bailey beat him in the primary.

[Person Man]

Probably down to the environment, and if Rs nominate a competent candidate.

The Dem sweep of the 2021 runoffs was a combination of it being the peak of the post-2020 ballot harvesting fearmongering (which I'm certain hurt turnout), plus Loeffler's big insider trading scandal. In 2022, the issue for Rs was that Walker was a horrible candidate.

The environment is still changing there. It would have to be a perfect storm of Biden winning, a recession happening after the election, Republicans running a good candidate and Democrats running a poor candidate to make the race Lean R. Then again, things will have go the other way by the same amount for the Democrat to have an advantage.

[Del Tachi]

I will also point out that Democrats largely successfully turned Kemp into an "election denier" before it was cool (i.e., pre-insurrection.)  He still went on to be reelected in a better-than-expected environment for Democrats.  I think partisan turnover among White suburbrons is always slower at the state/local level, and this may again be enough to save the GA-GOP in 2026. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

I will also point out that Democrats largely successfully turned Kemp into an "election denier" before it was cool (i.e., pre-insurrection.)  He still went on to be reelected in a better-than-expected environment for Democrats.  I think partisan turnover among White suburbrons is always slower at the state/local level, and this may again be enough to save the GA-GOP in 2026. 

Abrams was the election denier

[DaleCooper]

I will also point out that Democrats largely successfully turned Kemp into an "election denier" before it was cool (i.e., pre-insurrection.)  He still went on to be reelected in a better-than-expected environment for Democrats.  I think partisan turnover among White suburbrons is always slower at the state/local level, and this may again be enough to save the GA-GOP in 2026. 

I disagree with this interpretation. By the time 2022 rolled around, Kemp was not seen as an election denier or Trump supporter. If anything, swing voters probably viewed him as moderate because of Trump's opposition to him.

[ReaganLimbaugh]

Nikema Williams could pull it off. 

Now you're dreaming.

[progressive85]

What about Michelle Nunn or Jason Carter, or are they done for good?

 Michelle Nunn ran for the Senate in 2014 and Jason Carter ran for Governor. 

They both lost but didn't they do better than they were expected to?  They both received around 45% of the vote in a tough midterm.

[MuskieMoment]

How are we feeling about Jason Carter? He did respectably in 2014 given that he was running against an incumbent in a terrible environment for Democrats

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Not against Raff, that's for sure, especially in a Biden six year itch midterm(which I don't think will be as rosy as the last one). But the row offices could be interesting

[Badger]

Not Stacey Abrams, probably. She's done.

Ego and fame got in her head. Should have stayed low.

Can't be Stacey Evans either because black people won't turn out.

Jon Ossoff, if he is tired of DC.

A young handsome governor is what Democrats need heading into the 2030s.

Heavily depends on the R nominee. Raffensperger would be favored to win, just like Kemp.

. Possibly, but for obvious reasons he will have significant problems in the primary

[Badger]

Not Stacey Abrams, probably. She's done.

Ego and fame got in her head. Should have stayed low.

Can't be Stacey Evans either because black people won't turn out.

Jon Ossoff, if he is tired of DC.

A young handsome governor is what Democrats need heading into the 2030s.

Heavily depends on the R nominee. Raffensperger would be favored to win, just like Kemp.

I think Burt Jones, the next Lt. Gov, will almost certainly be the nominee. He's supported by all wings of the party and even got an endorsement from Kwanza Hall.

How did he manage to do this? He's an election denier.

I believe you just answered your own question.

[Badger]

What about Keisha Lance Bottoms?

I also think Lucy McBath would be a good choice.

State voters tend to hate their resident big city, and be suspicious of pols from there. Folks like Ed Rendell are very much the exception to the rule.

[Badger]

What about Michelle Nunn or Jason Carter, or are they done for good?

 Michelle Nunn ran for the Senate in 2014 and Jason Carter ran for Governor. 

They both lost but didn't they do better than they were expected to?  They both received around 45% of the vote in a tough midterm.

Both are considered ancient history

[Del Tachi]

Jason Esteves for the Dems?  Not really sure who they'd go with here...

[Horus]

I'll say this : they have to be black.

Stacey would run again but it would be Lean-R imo

Ossoff is white and could win, though I think he wants to stay in the Senate.

[Хahar 🤔]

Jason Esteves for the Dems?  Not really sure who they'd go with here...

There's no shortage of ambitious Democrats in Georgia. I don't pay attention like I used to, but my pick is still Jen Jordan. She would have had a higher profile if she had won her race last year, but she couldn't help being dragged down by the top of the ticket. Josh McLaurin (my former state representative in Sandy Springs) is another Democrat I'd expect to pursue statewide office, although I don't know that it would be the governorship.

It is obviously not going to be Keisha Lance Bottoms, who is very clearly not interested in electoral politics and would be obliterated if she were to run in a statewide general election anyway. Georgia Democrats don't nominate Atlanta municipal politicians, and for good reason.

[Person Man]

Still sticking to my prediction that barring another realignment, the D pick up Georgia in 2026 if Biden loses.

[MuskieMoment]

How are peeps feeling about Jason Carter? He didn’t do badly running in 2014 against an incumbent during the buzzsaw that was the 2014 midterms.