Senate/Governor Races by Congressional District
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Author Topic: Senate/Governor Races by Congressional District  (Read 3322 times)
Spectator
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« on: November 15, 2022, 12:20:59 PM »
Figured since we’ll be getting maps soon might as well start the thread. We already know Laura Kelly won KS-02 and Janet Mills lost ME-02. Jared Polis won CO-03.

Please post maps here as we we get them.
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Spectator
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« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2022, 03:32:17 PM »
ME Governor
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Gracile
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« Reply #2 on: November 15, 2022, 04:13:03 PM »
AZ-01 voted for Hobbs and Kelly-
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Spectator
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« Reply #3 on: November 15, 2022, 04:14:35 PM »
« Edited: November 15, 2022, 04:34:31 PM by Spectator »
Quote from: Gracile on November 15, 2022, 04:13:03 PM
AZ-01 voted for Hobbs and Kelly-



Ye that one’s a goner for the GOP in 2024 or 2026. Dems did better than Biden 2020 even adjusting against statewide swing.

Any numbers on AZ-06? Kelly obviously won it without having to look it up, and am I correct in assuming Hobbs did too? She’s doing better than Biden in Pima, Cochise and Greenlee.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #4 on: November 15, 2022, 05:23:57 PM »
Quote from: Gracile on November 15, 2022, 04:13:03 PM
AZ-01 voted for Hobbs and Kelly-


Sean Patrick Maloney= Epic Moron
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Spectator
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« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2022, 07:52:13 AM »
NM-02: Vasquez did about a point better than Grisham
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2022, 08:04:10 AM »
Quote from: Spectator on November 16, 2022, 07:52:13 AM
NM-02: Vasquez did about a point better than Grisham


I maintain NM is more likely to go R than ME/NH in 2024
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Spectator
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« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2022, 08:08:12 AM »
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on November 16, 2022, 08:04:10 AM
Quote from: Spectator on November 16, 2022, 07:52:13 AM
NM-02: Vasquez did about a point better than Grisham


I maintain NM is more likely to go R than ME/NH in 2024

I don’t think either is likely. Likelier Biden wins NM by 20% against Trump than he loses.

MLG was a scandal plagued Governor running against a decent challenger. I think the fact all the House Dems, including the non-incumbent, did better than her speaks to all that.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #8 on: November 16, 2022, 08:17:10 AM »
Quote from: Spectator on November 16, 2022, 08:08:12 AM
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on November 16, 2022, 08:04:10 AM
Quote from: Spectator on November 16, 2022, 07:52:13 AM
NM-02: Vasquez did about a point better than Grisham


I maintain NM is more likely to go R than ME/NH in 2024

I don’t think either is likely. Likelier Biden wins NM by 20% against Trump than he loses.

MLG was a scandal plagued Governor running against a decent challenger. I think the fact all the House Dems, including the non-incumbent, did better than her speaks to all that.
Yeah against Trump lol. But you can't convince me Generic R is more appealing to secular whites in ME/NH than religious Hispanics in NM
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #9 on: November 16, 2022, 08:24:24 AM »
« Edited: November 16, 2022, 08:32:59 AM by Adam Griffin »
GA-14, Senate:

2022 General (262163 votes): 174090-81901 (66.41-31.24): Walker +35.17
2021 Runoff (293792 votes): 198797-95005 (67.66-32.34): Loeffler +35.32
2020 General (333364 votes): 224765-99862 (67.42-29.95): Loeffler +37.47

*2020 General combines all D votes, all R votes, and all 'other' votes into 3 categories
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Spectator
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« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2022, 08:29:49 AM »
Quote from: Adam Griffin on November 16, 2022, 08:24:24 AM
GA-14, Senate:

2022 General (262163 votes): 174090-81901 (66.41-31.24): Walker +35.17
2021 Runoff (293792 votes): 198797-95005 (67.66-32.34): Walker +35.32
2020 General (333364 votes): 224765-99862 (67.42-29.95): Loeffler +37.47

*2020 General combines all D votes, all R votes, and all 'other' votes into 3 categories

Oh wow, that shows how toxic that MTG is that she ran three points behind even Herschel Walker.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #11 on: November 16, 2022, 09:56:24 AM »
Quote from: Spectator on November 15, 2022, 04:14:35 PM
Quote from: Gracile on November 15, 2022, 04:13:03 PM
AZ-01 voted for Hobbs and Kelly-



Ye that one’s a goner for the GOP in 2024 or 2026. Dems did better than Biden 2020 even adjusting against statewide swing.

Any numbers on AZ-06? Kelly obviously won it without having to look it up, and am I correct in assuming Hobbs did too? She’s doing better than Biden in Pima, Cochise and Greenlee.

Yes, I that's the one I'm more interested in.
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Devils30
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« Reply #12 on: November 16, 2022, 02:24:13 PM »
I wonder who won PA-10 for Senate..bet it's very close.
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Spectator
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« Reply #13 on: November 17, 2022, 04:46:15 PM »
Quote from: Devils30 on November 16, 2022, 02:24:13 PM
I wonder who won PA-10 for Senate..bet it's very close.

Looks like Oz but barely. I need the breakdown of York by precinct. Fetterman probably would have wine the old PA-10.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: December 01, 2022, 11:32:11 AM »
Here is KS-GOV

Kelly actually WON KS-02!
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: December 01, 2022, 11:32:30 AM »
If anyone finds them, can you post here?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: December 01, 2022, 11:36:19 AM »
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #17 on: December 01, 2022, 01:21:26 PM »
You can get all Minnesota results broken down by CD here.

https://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20221108

MN-Gov by CD

MN-01: Jensen 52.3% - Walz 44.8%
MN-02: Walz 52.6% - Jensen 44.6%
MN-03: Walz 59.3% - Jensen 38.1%
MN-04: Walz 67.5% - Jensen 29.3%
MN-05: Walz 80.6% - Jensen 16.1%
MN-06: Jensen 56.7% - Walz 40.2%
MN-07: Jensen 65.5% - Walz 31.3%
MN-08: Jensen 52.3% - Walz 43.9%

Map looks a lot more like the 2020 Presidential race than Walz's first Governor race. He did better in the metro, worse outstate.
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Atlas Force
mlee117379
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« Reply #18 on: December 02, 2022, 11:02:23 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on December 01, 2022, 11:36:19 AM


Kind would totally have won re-election if he didn’t retire.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
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« Reply #19 on: December 02, 2022, 09:59:17 PM »
CA-41
Congress     Calvert   52.4%   -      Rollins   47.6%
Senate        Meuser   53.2%   -      Padilla   46.8%
Governor       Dahle   54.6%   -   Newsom   45.4%
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Spectator
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« Reply #20 on: December 02, 2022, 10:12:09 PM »
Quote from: Interlocutor on December 02, 2022, 09:59:17 PM
CA-41
Congress     Calvert   52.4%   -      Rollins   47.6%
Senate        Meuser   53.2%   -      Padilla   46.8%
Governor       Dahle   54.6%   -   Newsom   45.4%

Backs up the theory that Newsom and Padilla sucked moreso than the GOP House candidates did well. Interested in seeing the other seats.
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Pericles
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« Reply #21 on: December 02, 2022, 11:14:08 PM »
Quote from: Spectator on December 02, 2022, 10:12:09 PM
Quote from: Interlocutor on December 02, 2022, 09:59:17 PM
CA-41
Congress     Calvert   52.4%   -      Rollins   47.6%
Senate        Meuser   53.2%   -      Padilla   46.8%
Governor       Dahle   54.6%   -   Newsom   45.4%

Backs up the theory that Newsom and Padilla sucked moreso than the GOP House candidates did well. Interested in seeing the other seats.

I don't think Newsom made much of a difference, he lost in four of the seven Democratic pickups in 2018 (the 10th, 39th, 45th, and 48th districts).
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #22 on: December 02, 2022, 11:30:33 PM »
Quote from: Spectator on December 02, 2022, 10:12:09 PM
Quote from: Interlocutor on December 02, 2022, 09:59:17 PM
CA-41
Congress     Calvert   52.4%   -      Rollins   47.6%
Senate        Meuser   53.2%   -      Padilla   46.8%
Governor       Dahle   54.6%   -   Newsom   45.4%

Backs up the theory that Newsom and Padilla sucked moreso than the GOP House candidates did well. Interested in seeing the other seats.

Only got one other example, but it was a similar trajectory in neighboring CA-39. Takano doing about a point better than Padilla and 3 points better than Newsom.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #23 on: December 02, 2022, 11:58:50 PM »
Quote from: Interlocutor on December 02, 2022, 09:59:17 PM
CA-41
Congress     Calvert   52.4%   -      Rollins   47.6%
Senate        Meuser   53.2%   -      Padilla   46.8%
Governor       Dahle   54.6%   -   Newsom   45.4%

Considering how bad Newsom did statewide, that's not as bad as I expected. Perhaps Palm Springs having a relatively high turnout base should generally keep Dems above about 45% no matter what?
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Gracile
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« Reply #24 on: December 05, 2022, 01:00:40 PM »
This guy made a map of CD results with a few corrections in the second tweet:
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