Morning Consult: Trump 47, DeSantis 33, Pence 5

[Sir Mohamed]

Post midterm GOP poll:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1592532475649327105

[Comrade Funk]

Trump is going to win. This is a poll that isn't trying to set a GOP establishment narrative.

[DaleCooper]

I still fully expect Republicans to triple-down on their worship of Trump. Expect another election where this fat-ass monopolizes the news.

[Medal506]

Trump is going to win. This is a poll that isn't trying to set a GOP establishment narrative.

DeSantis is climbing though. He was averaging 20% and now at 33%.

[2016]

Trump is going to win. This is a poll that isn't trying to set a GOP establishment narrative.

That Poll is total trash. Politico/Morning Consult should be prohibited to polling after they claimed the Democrats would win the House Popular Vote by 5 Points this year.

National Polls don't matter at this Point. It's the Polls in IA & NH that matter.

[Buzz]

Junk poll.  DeSantis is going to easily beat him

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Junk poll.  DeSantis is going to easily beat him

It's possible DeSantis could win, but I see no reason to think he will do so easily.

[Spectator]

Trump is going to win. This is a poll that isn't trying to set a GOP establishment narrative.

DeSantis is climbing though. He was averaging 20% and now at 33%.

Flash in the pan. This is just the establishment trying to set a narrative that will be extremely hard to break since they and conservative media has treated Trump like a God the past 6 years.

[Lief 🗽]

National Polls don't matter at this Point. It's the Polls in IA & NH that matter.

That’s cute. The anti-Biden people were saying the same thing all of 2019.

[Ljube]

National Polls don't matter at this Point. It's the Polls in IA & NH that matter.

That’s cute. The anti-Biden people were saying the same thing all of 2019.

Let me correct that a little.

National Polls don't matter at this Point. It's the Polls in IA, NH, NV and SC that matter.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

National Polls don't matter at this Point. It's the Polls in IA & NH that matter.

That’s cute. The anti-Biden people were saying the same thing all of 2019.

Ask Rudy Giuliani about the importance of national polls over a year out from the first contests or Hillary Clinton in 2008 for that matter.

The Republican Party doesn't have the massive demographic differentials between IA/NH and SC that the Democrats do. Evangelicals are big in SC for Republicans, but they are a large presence in IA as well so that is less of a factor.

Biden always had massive African-American support and it was up to someone challenging him to take that support away from him. It was my expectation that someone would accomplish this, but that did not happen and instead he was able to ignore IA and NH and ride that strong base to the nomination by dominating SC and then consolidating the establishment lane through backroom deals.

[Asta]

Trump is not a party loyalist.

If he was smart enough, he could blackmail the GOP and go 3rd party to split tickets if they don't offer the red carpet for him to walk away with it.

DeSantis may eventually garner the plurality of GOP voters on his side but Trump owns the ardent fanatics on his side.

The nomination is Trump's to lose.

[Vosem]

National Polls don't matter at this Point. It's the Polls in IA & NH that matter.

That’s cute. The anti-Biden people were saying the same thing all of 2019.

On the other hand, it seemed pretty clear that if Bloomberg had simply announced at a regular time and not dithered he would've won the nomination (something that everyone underestimates in their analyses of the Democratic Party, IMO).

Anyway, Trump is favored but has lots of weak points, and DeSantis is obviously better-positioned to appeal to a majority of Republican primary voters than Sanders ever was to appeal to a majority of Democratic primary voters.

If he was smart enough, he could blackmail the GOP and go 3rd party to split tickets if they don't offer the red carpet for him to walk away with it.

This isn't 1992, though (when such a strategy would've been legally feasible). Trump either decides he wants to run third-party before the primary happens, or he gets relegated to the same state ballots that McMullin and Kanye ended up on. (Or, actually, he makes a bid for the Libertarian or Green nominations, which is the shortcut, but I'm not sure either party would find him appealing).

Part of the paradox for Trump regarding 'the fanatics' -- if you're right -- is that he would benefit from low turnout, but his very presence in the race would suggest turnout will be very high (as does the very likely absence of a competitive Democratic primary, which will be the biggest difference relative to 2016). OTOH I think you're wrong and in fact the ideological fanatics, and people who always vote in GOP primaries, will be mostly for DeSantis, but this is not enough to win presidential primaries even in lower turnout contexts -- Cruz, their man in 2016, came closer than is remembered that year (which was the closest Republican nominating contest since 1976, also something inconvenient and routinely forgotten), but he didn't win, and higher turnout in 2024 suggests such a strategy will be tougher to pull off. This would be one of DeSantis's weaknesses, and one of the reasons an intelligent person might still say Trump is favored.

[Ferguson97]

Junk poll.  DeSantis is going to easily beat him

Nope.

[Roll Roons]

It still shows a huge collapse for Trump and increase for Ron.

[OSR stands with Israel]

National Polls don't matter at this Point. It's the Polls in IA & NH that matter.

That’s cute. The anti-Biden people were saying the same thing all of 2019.

The early democratic primaries are fundamentally different from the early Republican primaries given they are pretty different demographically from each other . IA and NH for example on the dem side disproportionately amount of white liberals both of whom were never Biden’s strength in the primaries to begin with .