The Sun Belt might not go blue long-term
Agonized-Statism:
Quote from: khuzifenq on November 14, 2022, 05:08:43 PM
I heard on the 538 post-midterm podcast episode that inflation has been worse in the Sunbelt (SoCal, Metro Phoenix, Las Vegas, DFW, Atlanta, etc) than in the Frost Belt. Wonder if that was a factor this year, it'd definitely explain the SoCal House races.
That, and a reaction to the lockdown in Sun Belt states dependent on the tourism and hospitality industry and recreational service work like Nevada, may have obscured trends imo.
Hope For A New Era:
Quote from: Anthropogenic-Statism on December 02, 2022, 03:56:09 PM
Quote from: khuzifenq on November 14, 2022, 05:08:43 PM
I heard on the 538 post-midterm podcast episode that inflation has been worse in the Sunbelt (SoCal, Metro Phoenix, Las Vegas, DFW, Atlanta, etc) than in the Frost Belt. Wonder if that was a factor this year, it'd definitely explain the SoCal House races.
That, and a reaction to the lockdown in Sun Belt states dependent on the tourism and hospitality industry and recreational service work like Nevada, may have obscured trends imo.
Nevada in particular is also notable for having the third-highest gas prices in the country during the week before Election Day, behind only California and Hawaii. Oregon wasn't far behind either.
S019:
Quote from: Classic Liminal on December 02, 2022, 12:59:04 PM
I wouldn't write Texas off, Beto in 2022 only did slightly worse than Biden. In some counties there are a lot of people that are more supportive of "woke" things. IMO, Texas is still where its at in 2020, or even possibly slightly better.
It's noteworthy that despite doing better than Trump 2016, Abbott did worse than him in the Dallas suburbs. Democratic turnout in Texas was also awful, but unless the big metros just stall, the TXGOP is going to have a big problem on their hands very soon.
Arizona Iced Tea:
Quote from: S019 on December 02, 2022, 11:02:19 PM
Quote from: Classic Liminal on December 02, 2022, 12:59:04 PM
I wouldn't write Texas off, Beto in 2022 only did slightly worse than Biden. In some counties there are a lot of people that are more supportive of "woke" things. IMO, Texas is still where its at in 2020, or even possibly slightly better.
It's noteworthy that despite doing better than Trump 2016, Abbott did worse than him in the Dallas suburbs. Democratic turnout in Texas was also awful, but unless the big metros just stall, the TXGOP is going to have a big problem on their hands very soon.
He managed to do better than Trump 2016 in the Houston and El Paso area though. Also Jefferson county (Beaumont) went big for Abbott. It even voted against Bush in 2004! Not to mention the RGV with Abbott improving there compared to Trump 2016 (but less than 2020). DFW and Austin isn't enough for them to carry the state. They need all hands on deck from every metro area.
President Punxsutawney Phil:
Quote from: Arizona Iced Tea on December 03, 2022, 04:21:25 AM
Quote from: S019 on December 02, 2022, 11:02:19 PM
Quote from: Classic Liminal on December 02, 2022, 12:59:04 PM
I wouldn't write Texas off, Beto in 2022 only did slightly worse than Biden. In some counties there are a lot of people that are more supportive of "woke" things. IMO, Texas is still where its at in 2020, or even possibly slightly better.
It's noteworthy that despite doing better than Trump 2016, Abbott did worse than him in the Dallas suburbs. Democratic turnout in Texas was also awful, but unless the big metros just stall, the TXGOP is going to have a big problem on their hands very soon.
He managed to do better than Trump 2016 in the Houston and El Paso area though. Also Jefferson county (Beaumont) went big for Abbott. It even voted against Bush in 2004! Not to mention the RGV with Abbott improving there compared to Trump 2016 (but less than 2020). DFW and Austin isn't enough for them to carry the state. They need all hands on deck from every metro area.
Jefferson County has Deep South racial-political dynamics. It just had enough Blacks to make Ds reliably win it. In the long run, it seems the Black % is slowly going down, so the D floor in the county is also going down. The other issue at hand here is that Beaumont is a city reliant on fossil fuel industries; the Houston metro in general is kind of a fossil fuel region, but if Rs are seen as protecting the fossil fuel industry, that could make the difference in swaying swing voters in this part of the state.
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