The Sun Belt might not go blue long-term
jkmillion:
This was pretty much the point I got from the 2022 midterms. Democrats performed really well in the Rust Belt/Midwest in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota. However, they didn't do good in the Sun Belt at all.
Warnock barely won against an insanely unpopular challenger with the incumbency advantage. Beto and Abrams came nowhere close to winning. Democrats got blown out in Florida and couldn't keep North Carolina within 3% despite a strong candidate. Even in 2021, the Democrats underperformed in Virginia.
I think one of the biggest problems is that people think Wisconsin is going to vote like 10% red in the future. I think that is wrong. The elections clearly point towards college-educated people in the suburbs trending blue and conservative minorities trending Republican.
Texas might never go blue and Georgia might actually vote more Republican in the 2030s than in the 2020 election.
Like, once the Democrats starts to lose their grip on minorities, I struggle to find where the Democrats can find voters to replace minority losses in the Sun Belt, especially since a lot of the swingable voters have already switched by now.
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️:
This seems like a strange take. It is fair to be skeptical of Florida and Texas, for example, but those are not the entirety of the "sunbelt." Your thread title would have more merit if you changed it to something like "Florida and Texas might not go blue long-term."
But other states like CO and VA are safely Dem on the Federal level. Sure, under the right circumstances they may elect a Republican governor or state legislature, but that does not make them any more federally competitive than states like Louisiana and Kentucky, which have Democratic governors (or MA and MD, which recently had Republican governors).
The national Dem party did not invest in NC, so I think the takeaway for most people is that if they had, perhaps NC-SEN may have been winnable.
As for Georgia, the idea of Dems winning a Senate seat there would have been basically unthinkable as recently as 5 or so years ago.
I also note that you conspicuously make zero reference whatsoever of Arizona in your post.
And finally:
Quote from: jkmillion on November 14, 2022, 03:13:46 PM
Georgia might actually vote more Republican in the 2030s than in the 2020 election.
What exactly makes you think that is even plausible? What are the electoral trends that are driving Georgia, of all states, to trend R? Beyond the flippant platitude that "anything can happen" and that a decade or more is a long time in politics (which is true), there is nothing in particular to support that.
Kamala’s side hoe:
Quote from: jkmillion on November 14, 2022, 03:13:46 PM
This was pretty much the point I got from the 2022 midterms. Democrats performed really well in the Rust Belt/Midwest in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota. However, they didn't do good in the Sun Belt at all.
I heard on the 538 post-midterm podcast episode that inflation has been worse in the Sunbelt (SoCal, Metro Phoenix, Las Vegas, DFW, Atlanta, etc) than in the Frost Belt. Wonder if that was a factor this year, it'd definitely explain the SoCal House races.
Liminal Trans Girl:
I wouldn't write Texas off, Beto in 2022 only did slightly worse than Biden. In some counties there are a lot of people that are more supportive of "woke" things. IMO, Texas is still where its at in 2020, or even possibly slightly better.
TDAS04:
Democrats performed well in Arizona, which is definitely a Sun Belt state.
I do, however, agree that Wisconsin’s Republican trends are hyped, and that the Frost Belt still holds plenty of hope for Democrats. Midwestern whites still aren’t as right wing as Southern whites.
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page