ME-Senate 2024: Return of the King?
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  ME-Senate 2024: Return of the King?
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Author Topic: ME-Senate 2024: Return of the King?  (Read 3023 times)
YE
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« Reply #25 on: November 14, 2022, 04:52:00 PM »

Golden strikes me more as a Tester clone than a Sinema or Manchin one and his core against BBB 1.0 was from the left but I also excepted to him to be more lefty in the House. I’d rather have him run against Collins or in an open race in 2026 and run Jackson this cycle.
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Spectator
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« Reply #26 on: November 15, 2022, 07:19:31 AM »
« Edited: November 15, 2022, 07:23:37 AM by Spectator »

Using the numbers posted on Bangor Daily News, it turns out that Golden did in fact lose Troy Jackson’s state senate district. Jackson was seriously challenged by a sitting Republican State Representative so his win makes it all the more impressive, especially outperforming even Golden by what looks like 8%, pre-RCV.

8,433  49.4%   Poliquin
7,736  45.3%   Golden
901     5.3%     Bond
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West_Midlander
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« Reply #27 on: November 15, 2022, 07:59:57 AM »

Discuss the Maine senate race here.

Angus King said he will decide early next year whether to run for reelection.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/05/senate-dems-reelection-00060062

Jared Golden seems the obvious choice to run to replace him should he would retire and he would likely win by a large margin. Similarly I expect King should he run to win rather comfortably.

Another democrat may have more of a race of their hands.  

Why any Democrat would vote for a DINO like Jared Golden in a statewide Democratic primary in Maine is a mystery.  No surprise that Republicans are already trying gaslight us into thinking that we need him to win statewide in Maine.

I think Golden would be a great nominee.  He's a centrist yes, but Maine is a centrist state (Who's the other Senator from Maine again?).  Golden knows how to win elections, and he'd be a reliable vote for all the important stuff in the Senate.

Roll Eyes

This man was also supposedly a reliable vote:




Manchin votes with Biden 89.1% of the time, having the highest net pro-Biden score given how conservative the state he represents is (according to 538) and w/o Manchin, McConnell would have been Maj Ldr from 2021-23.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #28 on: November 15, 2022, 08:12:37 AM »

I'm not convinced Golden would win a Democratic primary statewide. He'd get destroyed by pretty much anyone (and possibly multiple someone's) from ME-1, especially if they are running to his left.
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Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins
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« Reply #29 on: November 15, 2022, 08:30:45 AM »

Using the numbers posted on Bangor Daily News, it turns out that Golden did in fact lose Troy Jackson’s state senate district. Jackson was seriously challenged by a sitting Republican State Representative so his win makes it all the more impressive, especially outperforming even Golden by what looks like 8%, pre-RCV.

8,433  49.4%   Poliquin
7,736  45.3%   Golden
901     5.3%     Bond

Well Jackson did outperform him. It will by significantly less than 8 points as Bond voters are much more likely to have ranked Golden 2nd. It will probably be a 2-3% overperformance in the end. (Bond voters put Golden over the line in 2018)
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Spectator
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« Reply #30 on: November 15, 2022, 08:33:46 AM »

Using the numbers posted on Bangor Daily News, it turns out that Golden did in fact lose Troy Jackson’s state senate district. Jackson was seriously challenged by a sitting Republican State Representative so his win makes it all the more impressive, especially outperforming even Golden by what looks like 8%, pre-RCV.

8,433  49.4%   Poliquin
7,736  45.3%   Golden
901     5.3%     Bond

Well Jackson did outperform him. It will by significantly less than 8 points as Bond voters are much more likely to have ranked Golden 2nd. It will probably be a 2-3% overperformance in the end. (Bond voters put Golden over the line in 2018)

Bond voters ended up shifting the race about 2 points left after RCV in 2018. It won’t allow Golden to make up the difference in SD-1, especially since there’s even less Bond voters than in 2018. But it doesn’t matter since he’ll still easily win ME-02 overall.
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S019
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« Reply #31 on: November 15, 2022, 11:08:33 AM »

Discuss the Maine senate race here.

Angus King said he will decide early next year whether to run for reelection.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/05/senate-dems-reelection-00060062

Jared Golden seems the obvious choice to run to replace him should he would retire and he would likely win by a large margin. Similarly I expect King should he run to win rather comfortably.

Another democrat may have more of a race of their hands.  

Why any Democrat would vote for a DINO like Jared Golden in a statewide Democratic primary in Maine is a mystery.  No surprise that Republicans are already trying gaslight us into thinking that we need him to win statewide in Maine.

I think Golden would be a great nominee.  He's a centrist yes, but Maine is a centrist state (Who's the other Senator from Maine again?).  Golden knows how to win elections, and he'd be a reliable vote for all the important stuff in the Senate.

Roll Eyes

This man was also supposedly a reliable vote:




Manchin votes with Biden 89.1% of the time, having the highest net pro-Biden score given how conservative the state he represents is (according to 538) and w/o Manchin, McConnell would have been Maj Ldr from 2021-23.

Yes, a conservative like Manchin is tolerable from West Virginia, not from Maine.
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Heebie Jeebie
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« Reply #32 on: November 15, 2022, 11:52:52 AM »

Discuss the Maine senate race here.

Angus King said he will decide early next year whether to run for reelection.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/05/senate-dems-reelection-00060062

Jared Golden seems the obvious choice to run to replace him should he would retire and he would likely win by a large margin. Similarly I expect King should he run to win rather comfortably.

Another democrat may have more of a race of their hands.  

Why any Democrat would vote for a DINO like Jared Golden in a statewide Democratic primary in Maine is a mystery.  No surprise that Republicans are already trying gaslight us into thinking that we need him to win statewide in Maine.

I think Golden would be a great nominee.  He's a centrist yes, but Maine is a centrist state (Who's the other Senator from Maine again?).  Golden knows how to win elections, and he'd be a reliable vote for all the important stuff in the Senate.

Roll Eyes

This man was also supposedly a reliable vote:




Manchin votes with Biden 89.1% of the time, having the highest net pro-Biden score given how conservative the state he represents is (according to 538) and w/o Manchin, McConnell would have been Maj Ldr from 2021-23.

Yes, a conservative like Manchin is tolerable from West Virginia, not from Maine.

This talk about Manchin being a conservative is nuts.  He's been there reliably for all the big Democratic votes.  He's put up no road blocks to the rapid confirmation of liberal judges across the country.  He saved progressives in the party from themselves by scaling back the House's Build Back Better bill, which was very poorly designed and would have pushed inflation significantly higher in the short term.  His theatrics get annoying, but ideologically Manchin is a pretty generic centrist.  Maine should be more than happy to get a Senator like that.
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YE
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« Reply #33 on: November 15, 2022, 12:32:02 PM »

Using the numbers posted on Bangor Daily News, it turns out that Golden did in fact lose Troy Jackson’s state senate district. Jackson was seriously challenged by a sitting Republican State Representative so his win makes it all the more impressive, especially outperforming even Golden by what looks like 8%, pre-RCV.

8,433  49.4%   Poliquin
7,736  45.3%   Golden
901     5.3%     Bond

With RCV, this is probably a Golden victory.
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Spectator
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« Reply #34 on: November 15, 2022, 12:34:36 PM »

Using the numbers posted on Bangor Daily News, it turns out that Golden did in fact lose Troy Jackson’s state senate district. Jackson was seriously challenged by a sitting Republican State Representative so his win makes it all the more impressive, especially outperforming even Golden by what looks like 8%, pre-RCV.

8,433  49.4%   Poliquin
7,736  45.3%   Golden
901     5.3%     Bond

With RCV, this is probably a Golden victory.

Doubt it. Even 22% exhaust of Bond voters would give Poliquin a win here, even assuming Golden won every other Bond vote.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #35 on: November 15, 2022, 01:34:00 PM »

In any case, Jackson is clearly a strong candidate.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #36 on: November 15, 2022, 05:04:08 PM »
« Edited: November 16, 2022, 01:13:47 AM by smoltchanov »

This talk about Manchin being a conservative is nuts.  He's been there reliably for all the big Democratic votes.  He's put up no road blocks to the rapid confirmation of liberal judges across the country.  He saved progressives in the party from themselves by scaling back the House's Build Back Better bill, which was very poorly designed and would have pushed inflation significantly higher in the short term.  His theatrics get annoying, but ideologically Manchin is a pretty generic centrist.  Maine should be more than happy to get a Senator like that.

There are no more conservatives in Democratic caucus in Congress anymore (in fact - no more then 1 or 2 in all 99 state legislatures). I began to study US elections in 1972, and anyone, who would make such statement ("Manchin is a conservative"), would be a subject of many laughs then. I don't see why i must change an opinion of him (agree - "generic centrist", may be even "very slightly left of center") now....
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #37 on: November 21, 2022, 05:23:29 PM »

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Spectator
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« Reply #38 on: November 21, 2022, 05:29:37 PM »

All but confirms his closest advisors are setting him up for a Senate run, either in 2024 or 2026.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #39 on: November 21, 2022, 05:30:22 PM »

Golden may actually be the one person who could take down Collins.
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Spectator
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« Reply #40 on: November 21, 2022, 05:32:05 PM »

Golden may actually be the one person who could take down Collins.

I think most people on this board agree. It’s only a question whether he would want to run against his old boss or not. He could frame it compellingly as “she changed since I worked for her,” and he’s a skilled enough politician to probably sell that.
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prag_prog
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« Reply #41 on: November 21, 2022, 05:40:39 PM »

whatever, just hope that the Dem nominee is someone local (no carpetbaggers) and comes across as authentic.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #42 on: November 21, 2022, 06:08:43 PM »

LOL at calling Golden a DINO. He voted to impeach Trump twice despite representing the reddest seat in the House for Dems (before Peltola came along), and voted for the IRA. He’s idiosyncratic and knows how to take strategic votes against his party when it doesn’t matter. Very much like Susan Collins in that regard.

In any event, Troy Jackson would be a solid choice in 2024 or 2026. I think only Golden or Jackson would stand any chance at all of beating Collins in 2024. No one from ME-01 can win against her.
He was actually the only Democrat in the house to vote no on the second article of impeachment in 2019. So while he did technically impeach Trump, there is a distinction worth making.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #43 on: December 01, 2022, 12:44:16 PM »

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BloJo94
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« Reply #44 on: December 01, 2022, 01:10:25 PM »


If King runs again, who will the real Dem be?

Zak Ringelstein again?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #45 on: December 01, 2022, 01:11:40 PM »

I expected him to run since he made no attempts to be Cabinet in a Biden Administration
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Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins
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« Reply #46 on: December 01, 2022, 01:27:32 PM »


If King runs again, who will the real Dem be?

Zak Ringelstein again?

Betsey Sweet maybe?

King will win, if he runs. Only real question is if he gets put under 50% first round(I doubt it)
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S019
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« Reply #47 on: December 01, 2022, 01:37:27 PM »

Petition to rename thread to: “The King is Back.”
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GALeftist
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« Reply #48 on: December 01, 2022, 01:48:35 PM »

Safe I.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #49 on: December 01, 2022, 01:52:30 PM »

So much for Senator Golden. If he wants to challenge Susan Collins in 2026, he’ll need to win reelection in 2024 first, which will be far more difficult than this year if Republicans win the presidency in 2024 (I don’t think Golden would give up his House seat to run against her in a midterm under a Democratic President).
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