PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[All Along The Watchtower]

Casey has conceded.

[Voice of low info America]

Too big to rig!

[These birds not meant to fly alone]

And thus completes the purchase of one of my Senate seats by a guy who doesn’t even live here. Note to all rich freaks looking to buy your way into politics: it is not important to live in the state where you’d like to run, the only thing that matters is that you are not Muslim

[JMT]

The PA senate seat flipped from R to D in 2022, then the other seat flipped D to R in 2024. When is the last time both state’s Senate seats flipped in two cycles in a row?

[Talleyrand]

The PA senate seat flipped from R to D in 2022, then the other seat flipped D to R in 2024. When is the last time both state’s Senate seats flipped in two cycles in a row?

Indiana 2010 (D>R) and 2012 (R>D).

[Farmlands]

This thread's an interesting read. After electoral "household name" McAuliffe lost in 2021, you'd think people here would be more careful in proclaiming races Safe D, especially in a federal swing state and an era where party trumps name more than ever, but then where's the fun in that?

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

This thread's an interesting read. After electoral "household name" McAuliffe lost in 2021, you'd think people here would be more careful in proclaiming races Safe D, especially in a federal swing state and an era where party trumps name more than ever, but then where's the fun in that?

Shapiro will win by a landslide but you are right in Prez not Gubernatorial landslides the races need to be realized that they aren't safe . But, not picking a swing state VP like Shapiro, Beshear or Kelly, and picking Walz may have cost Harris

I never liked him Walz as a political person

[VALibertarian]

This thread is hilarious to read in retrospect - 20+ pages of nonstop McCormick bashing (won't name names wink wink) and then just dead.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This thread is hilarious to read in retrospect - 20+ pages of nonstop McCormick bashing (won't name names wink wink) and then just dead.

A lot of us clearly overrated Casey. It doesn't mean McCormack was a good candidate.

[Zenobiyl]

This thread is hilarious to read in retrospect - 20+ pages of nonstop McCormick bashing (won't name names wink wink) and then just dead.

A lot of us clearly overrated Casey. It doesn't mean McCormack was a good candidate.

He’s a great candidate by PA Republican standards.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This thread is hilarious to read in retrospect - 20+ pages of nonstop McCormick bashing (won't name names wink wink) and then just dead.

A lot of us clearly overrated Casey. It doesn't mean McCormack was a good candidate.

He’s a great candidate by PA Republican standards.

Maybe.

[Mr. Smith]

The PA senate seat flipped from R to D in 2022, then the other seat flipped D to R in 2024. When is the last time both state’s Senate seats flipped in two cycles in a row?

Indiana 2010 (D>R) and 2012 (R>D).

Also a case of open seat vs defeated incumbent.

[wbrocks67]

This thread is hilarious to read in retrospect - 20+ pages of nonstop McCormick bashing (won't name names wink wink) and then just dead.

A lot of us clearly overrated Casey. It doesn't mean McCormack was a good candidate.

He’s a great candidate by PA Republican standards.

I think it's a little bit of both. I was definitely wrong on this race, but I also think there WAS potential for Casey to brand McCormick as an out of touch carpetbagger billionaire, and I think most of this defeat lays at Casey's feet. As I said before, I was a bit worried that his team/he were not as forthright in branding McCormick early, and by the time they did, they were already outspent so it was a wash. Unfortunately, Casey is a great senator in that he's a good fit for PA and he's a very good person, but his campaigning skills and methods just couldn't stand up to 2024. He needed better messaging himself, but he also needed a campaign team who felt like they were in 2024 and not 2004.

McCormick provided a LOT of fodder that should've been used against him in a more meaningful way, but Casey and his team ended up just being too outdated to make it work. The combination of the CT stuff + the abortion comments + him being a billionaire should've been enough. But I think he was seen as more palatable to voters because by the time that stuff made it into ads, it was just white noise, and otherwise McCormick just seems like a generic Republican on paper.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

This thread is hilarious to read in retrospect - 20+ pages of nonstop McCormick bashing (won't name names wink wink) and then just dead.

A lot of us clearly overrated Casey. It doesn't mean McCormack was a good candidate.

He’s a great candidate by PA Republican standards.

I think it's a little bit of both. I was definitely wrong on this race, but I also think there WAS potential for Casey to brand McCormick as an out of touch carpetbagger billionaire, and I think most of this defeat lays at Casey's feet. As I said before, I was a bit worried that his team/he were not as forthright in branding McCormick early, and by the time they did, they were already outspent so it was a wash. Unfortunately, Casey is a great senator in that he's a good fit for PA and he's a very good person, but his campaigning skills and methods just couldn't stand up to 2024. He needed better messaging himself, but he also needed a campaign team who felt like they were in 2024 and not 2004.

McCormick provided a LOT of fodder that should've been used against him in a more meaningful way, but Casey and his team ended up just being too outdated to make it work. The combination of the CT stuff + the abortion comments + him being a billionaire should've been enough. But I think he was seen as more palatable to voters because by the time that stuff made it into ads, it was just white noise, and otherwise McCormick just seems like a generic Republican on paper.

Stuff like this is important evidence indicating how important it is to define your opponent (the best example of this arguably being Obama defining Romney in 2012). Casey failed to do that.

[wbrocks67]

This thread is hilarious to read in retrospect - 20+ pages of nonstop McCormick bashing (won't name names wink wink) and then just dead.

A lot of us clearly overrated Casey. It doesn't mean McCormack was a good candidate.

He’s a great candidate by PA Republican standards.

I think it's a little bit of both. I was definitely wrong on this race, but I also think there WAS potential for Casey to brand McCormick as an out of touch carpetbagger billionaire, and I think most of this defeat lays at Casey's feet. As I said before, I was a bit worried that his team/he were not as forthright in branding McCormick early, and by the time they did, they were already outspent so it was a wash. Unfortunately, Casey is a great senator in that he's a good fit for PA and he's a very good person, but his campaigning skills and methods just couldn't stand up to 2024. He needed better messaging himself, but he also needed a campaign team who felt like they were in 2024 and not 2004.

McCormick provided a LOT of fodder that should've been used against him in a more meaningful way, but Casey and his team ended up just being too outdated to make it work. The combination of the CT stuff + the abortion comments + him being a billionaire should've been enough. But I think he was seen as more palatable to voters because by the time that stuff made it into ads, it was just white noise, and otherwise McCormick just seems like a generic Republican on paper.

Stuff like this is important evidence indicating how important it is to define your opponent (the best example of this arguably being Obama defining Romney in 2012). Casey failed to do that.

It's why Fetterman's race went the way it did for the most part. He successfully branded Oz all of Summer 2022 + combine that with a great social media game, it all worked. Casey and his team didn't do either.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

This thread is hilarious to read in retrospect - 20+ pages of nonstop McCormick bashing (won't name names wink wink) and then just dead.

A lot of us clearly overrated Casey. It doesn't mean McCormack was a good candidate.

He’s a great candidate by PA Republican standards.

I think it's a little bit of both. I was definitely wrong on this race, but I also think there WAS potential for Casey to brand McCormick as an out of touch carpetbagger billionaire, and I think most of this defeat lays at Casey's feet. As I said before, I was a bit worried that his team/he were not as forthright in branding McCormick early, and by the time they did, they were already outspent so it was a wash. Unfortunately, Casey is a great senator in that he's a good fit for PA and he's a very good person, but his campaigning skills and methods just couldn't stand up to 2024. He needed better messaging himself, but he also needed a campaign team who felt like they were in 2024 and not 2004.

McCormick provided a LOT of fodder that should've been used against him in a more meaningful way, but Casey and his team ended up just being too outdated to make it work. The combination of the CT stuff + the abortion comments + him being a billionaire should've been enough. But I think he was seen as more palatable to voters because by the time that stuff made it into ads, it was just white noise, and otherwise McCormick just seems like a generic Republican on paper.

Stuff like this is important evidence indicating how important it is to define your opponent (the best example of this arguably being Obama defining Romney in 2012). Casey failed to do that.

It's why Fetterman's race went the way it did for the most part. He successfully branded Oz all of Summer 2022 + combine that with a great social media game, it all worked. Casey and his team didn't do either.

The results speak for themselves.

[VALibertarian]

This thread is hilarious to read in retrospect - 20+ pages of nonstop McCormick bashing (won't name names wink wink) and then just dead.

A lot of us clearly overrated Casey. It doesn't mean McCormack was a good candidate.

He’s a great candidate by PA Republican standards.

I think it's a little bit of both. I was definitely wrong on this race, but I also think there WAS potential for Casey to brand McCormick as an out of touch carpetbagger billionaire, and I think most of this defeat lays at Casey's feet. As I said before, I was a bit worried that his team/he were not as forthright in branding McCormick early, and by the time they did, they were already outspent so it was a wash. Unfortunately, Casey is a great senator in that he's a good fit for PA and he's a very good person, but his campaigning skills and methods just couldn't stand up to 2024. He needed better messaging himself, but he also needed a campaign team who felt like they were in 2024 and not 2004.

McCormick provided a LOT of fodder that should've been used against him in a more meaningful way, but Casey and his team ended up just being too outdated to make it work. The combination of the CT stuff + the abortion comments + him being a billionaire should've been enough. But I think he was seen as more palatable to voters because by the time that stuff made it into ads, it was just white noise, and otherwise McCormick just seems like a generic Republican on paper.

Stuff like this is important evidence indicating how important it is to define your opponent (the best example of this arguably being Obama defining Romney in 2012). Casey failed to do that.

It's why Fetterman's race went the way it did for the most part. He successfully branded Oz all of Summer 2022 + combine that with a great social media game, it all worked. Casey and his team didn't do either.

I think Fetterman running in 2024 beats McCormick albeit narrowly due to this factor honestly. Casey just coasted and it finally caught up to him.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The whole ticket Doomed Casey chances, Latinos in Bucks county didn't like Harris

[Sir Mohamed]

This thread's an interesting read. After electoral "household name" McAuliffe lost in 2021, you'd think people here would be more careful in proclaiming races Safe D, especially in a federal swing state and an era where party trumps name more than ever, but then where's the fun in that?

Good take.

More stunning is Casey losing while other vulnerable seats (WI, MI, NV and AZ) not flipping. Brown and Tester losing was hardly a surprise, but if you told me even 2 months ago PA was the 4th seat going R, I wouldn't have believed it.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Gubernatorial landslide are very common in Midterms due to low turnout but voters didn't like Harris Walz ticket for some reason. A better VP would have carried the Ds over the top in the rust belt. Walz he was part of the reason not the whole reason why Ds lost