PA-SEN 2024 megathread
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March 29, 2024, 12:16:38 AM
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GALeftist
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« Reply #25 on: November 14, 2022, 05:03:50 PM »

Fitzpatrick can absolutely win a primary. He's far more likely than someone like Steil in WI

Are you kidding? Some Guy got 34% of the vote in his primary this year and he had raised $17,000 to Fitzpatrick's millions. Similar performances in 2020 and 2018 too. This is an area he'd need Kim Jong-un-esque margins in for a prayer statewide. He'd get blown out in a humiliating fashion.
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #26 on: November 14, 2022, 06:03:35 PM »

Solid D. 2024 will be a DEM year. I'd bank on it.
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The Smiling Face On Your TV
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« Reply #27 on: November 15, 2022, 07:03:07 AM »

Lmfaooooooooooo I hope the GOP’s stupid enough to challenge this seat. Casey still gets the vote of my Mastriano-supporting scapular-clothed mom-mom off surname recognition alone, that seat is his until he dies.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #28 on: November 15, 2022, 07:12:22 AM »

Lmfaooooooooooo I hope the GOP’s stupid enough to challenge this seat. Casey still gets the vote of my Mastriano-supporting scapular-clothed mom-mom off surname recognition alone, that seat is his until he dies.

It will be competitive don't underestimate McCormick we underestimate Masters but it will be a Kelly margin not a typical Casey landslide, because Biden is from Pennsylvania and will be heavily invested there

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BloJo94
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« Reply #29 on: November 20, 2022, 11:13:40 AM »

Malcolm Kenyatta or Summer Lee should primary out Bob Casey
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #30 on: November 20, 2022, 11:50:01 AM »

Malcolm Kenyatta or Summer Lee should primary out Bob Casey

Casey would get >95% of the vote against both of them.
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BloJo94
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« Reply #31 on: November 23, 2022, 11:50:20 AM »

Kathy Barnette probably wins the primary if she runs. And gets obliterated by Casey
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
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« Reply #32 on: November 23, 2022, 12:34:18 PM »

Malcolm Kenyatta or Summer Lee should primary out Bob Casey

They shouldn't and won't unless they never want to run with the support of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party again.
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here2view
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« Reply #33 on: November 24, 2022, 12:26:40 PM »

This starts as Likely D, closer to Safe than Lean.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #34 on: November 24, 2022, 10:04:53 PM »

This starts as Likely D, closer to Safe than Lean.

Imo this is a bit too confident; we’re 2 years out, and PA is a perennial tossup and will be highly contested on the Pres level. Lean D seems appropriate.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #35 on: November 25, 2022, 12:39:23 AM »

This is a very strong Lean D race, bordering on Likely D. I can only see Casey losing in a red wave environment.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #36 on: November 25, 2022, 12:51:45 AM »
« Edited: November 25, 2022, 01:06:46 AM by Dr Oz Hater »

Likely D race. Casey is an institution in this state and the Republicans don't really have a bench of viable candidates to seriously challenge him. Of course, they could find an unexpectedly strong candidate out of nowhere who could make this a race, but right now, McCormick, Fitzpatrick, and DeFoor would likely be their best options, and Casey would still probably beat them quite comfortably.

Besides DeFoor, the only other elected statewide Republican is Stacy Garrity, and she's a Stop the Steal nut job. Casey would crush her.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #37 on: November 25, 2022, 09:05:35 AM »

Likely D race. Casey is an institution in this state and the Republicans don't really have a bench of viable candidates to seriously challenge him. Of course, they could find an unexpectedly strong candidate out of nowhere who could make this a race, but right now, McCormick, Fitzpatrick, and DeFoor would likely be their best options, and Casey would still probably beat them quite comfortably.

Besides DeFoor, the only other elected statewide Republican is Stacy Garrity, and she's a Stop the Steal nut job. Casey would crush her.
McCormick would be a disaster. Imo only Fitzpatrick/DeFoor would have a prayer of even coming close
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here2view
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« Reply #38 on: November 25, 2022, 12:22:49 PM »

This starts as Likely D, closer to Safe than Lean.

Imo this is a bit too confident; we’re 2 years out, and PA is a perennial tossup and will be highly contested on the Pres level. Lean D seems appropriate.

Not with Bob Casey, the seat is his until he resigns or dies.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #39 on: November 25, 2022, 02:39:55 PM »
« Edited: November 25, 2022, 04:20:54 PM by Dr Oz Hater »

Likely D race. Casey is an institution in this state and the Republicans don't really have a bench of viable candidates to seriously challenge him. Of course, they could find an unexpectedly strong candidate out of nowhere who could make this a race, but right now, McCormick, Fitzpatrick, and DeFoor would likely be their best options, and Casey would still probably beat them quite comfortably.

Besides DeFoor, the only other elected statewide Republican is Stacy Garrity, and she's a Stop the Steal nut job. Casey would crush her.
McCormick would be a disaster. Imo only Fitzpatrick/DeFoor would have a prayer of even coming close

On second thought, you're right, McCormick would be pretty bad. A carpetbagging, out-of-touch, wealthy elitist being pitted against a popular incumbent who is strongly established within the state. It'd be a repeat of the Oz-Fetterman race where the former struggled because he was also an out-of-touch, out-of-state, rich, coastal elite running against a bonafide Pennsylvanian.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #40 on: November 25, 2022, 07:59:58 PM »

DeFoor is intriguing though, but I'd also have to personally learn more about him to say he's "stronger" than the rest of the bench. I think most of the reason people assume that is because they don't much about him and assume he's not a dingbat like Garrity, etc.

Honestly a lot of his win IMO in 2020 was also due to Ahmad being extremely liberal/progressive and also a bit of racism towards her as well (yes I know DeFoor is Black, but Ahmad was a more specific racism)
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ctherainbow
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« Reply #41 on: November 26, 2022, 05:21:49 AM »

DeFoor is intriguing though, but I'd also have to personally learn more about him to say he's "stronger" than the rest of the bench. I think most of the reason people assume that is because they don't much about him and assume he's not a dingbat like Garrity, etc.

Honestly a lot of his win IMO in 2020 was also due to Ahmad being extremely liberal/progressive and also a bit of racism towards her as well (yes I know DeFoor is Black, but Ahmad was a more specific racism)

YES.  You’re one of the few people who I’ve noticed pick up on this, but Nina’s underperformance relative to the other Democratic statewide candidates in more rural parts of PA suggests to me at least a bit of racism at play with casually voting ConservaDems and Indys.  Also, Timothy DeFoor is not a very recognizably traditionally Black name, and I spoke with many rural Republicans who didn’t even know he was Black until he won the seat and they saw him on TV during election results.  So Defoor didn’t seem to suffer much of the racist undervote from the rurals that has affected other Black Republicans in PA *cough* Lynn Swann *cough*.  Conversely, my friends in Philly and Harrisburg, media markets with a significant percentage of Black voters, reported intense advertising portraying DeFoor as a community-minded, good government moderate without mentioning his party affiliation.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he peeled off a good couple percentage points of the urban Black vote now that straight-ticket voting is no more (though I’d have to go over the precinct data to confirm that), but I don’t know that we can extrapolate his performance in the least well-known of the state row office elections, to a much more polarized gubernatorial or senatorial run.  We’ll have to see!
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
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« Reply #42 on: November 26, 2022, 05:35:32 AM »

Malcolm Kenyatta or Summer Lee should primary out Bob Casey

I mean if they want to self-immolate, sure
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #43 on: November 26, 2022, 07:15:21 AM »

With Biden on the ballot are users really serious that Biden is gonna lose any blue state, oh I forgot they are looking at the same Approvals that told us that Rs we're gonna get a 240 H and 54 Senate, Approvals lie
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #44 on: November 28, 2022, 10:57:15 AM »

Congrats on re-election, Sen. Casey!

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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #45 on: November 28, 2022, 10:59:40 AM »

Congrats on re-election, Sen. Casey!



Good news for Casey. I never thought McCormick was much stronger than Oz. He's just a rich hedgefund manager, which is easy to portray as out of touch elitist.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #46 on: November 28, 2022, 11:13:35 AM »

DeFoor is intriguing though, but I'd also have to personally learn more about him to say he's "stronger" than the rest of the bench. I think most of the reason people assume that is because they don't much about him and assume he's not a dingbat like Garrity, etc.

Honestly a lot of his win IMO in 2020 was also due to Ahmad being extremely liberal/progressive and also a bit of racism towards her as well (yes I know DeFoor is Black, but Ahmad was a more specific racism)

YES.  You’re one of the few people who I’ve noticed pick up on this, but Nina’s underperformance relative to the other Democratic statewide candidates in more rural parts of PA suggests to me at least a bit of racism at play with casually voting ConservaDems and Indys.  Also, Timothy DeFoor is not a very recognizably traditionally Black name, and I spoke with many rural Republicans who didn’t even know he was Black until he won the seat and they saw him on TV during election results.  So Defoor didn’t seem to suffer much of the racist undervote from the rurals that has affected other Black Republicans in PA *cough* Lynn Swann *cough*.  Conversely, my friends in Philly and Harrisburg, media markets with a significant percentage of Black voters, reported intense advertising portraying DeFoor as a community-minded, good government moderate without mentioning his party affiliation.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he peeled off a good couple percentage points of the urban Black vote now that straight-ticket voting is no more (though I’d have to go over the precinct data to confirm that), but I don’t know that we can extrapolate his performance in the least well-known of the state row office elections, to a much more polarized gubernatorial or senatorial run.  We’ll have to see!

Yep, all of this. Especially with DeFoor being such an unknown in so many places that I wouldn't be surprised if people didn't even realize what race he was tbh (compared to Ahmad which was clearly a more non-white name).

I feel like when looking at the results and Garrity and DeFoor winning a lot of this comes into play. A lot of it comes from not many people knowing who these people were (clearly a lot of people didn't even know who Torsella was!) and I would imagine, like you said, given that nobody knew much about Garrity or DeFoor one way or the other, you probably have a lot of people who probably say "well I'll vote for Biden and Shapiro but then balance it out with the other statewide races."

Again, fortunately for Garrity especially, she got away with nobody knowing how crazy she truly was. Because otherwise, there was no reason for Torsella to lose. He also ran a pretty low information campaign as well though, which didn't help. I don't remember anyone IRL talking about either of those two races or any of the candidates, but I did suspect that Ahmad would face some racism because of her name, etc.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #47 on: November 28, 2022, 11:18:28 AM »
« Edited: November 28, 2022, 11:22:50 AM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

It won't matter Casey is Safe , the closest it's gonna be is Fetterman margins , Biden is back on the ballot it's gonna help a lot in states especially in blue states it's not a midterm where Biden is off the ballot, and in NY it's gonna help too

NC too Cooper won with Biden on the ballot which helps Josh STEIN

Approvals Lie Biden isn't at 41/57 Approvals he will win PVI like Obama 51/47 in 2012
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President Johnson
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« Reply #48 on: November 28, 2022, 04:16:19 PM »

This is a very strong Lean D race, bordering on Likely D. I can only see Casey losing in a red wave environment.

Pretty much this. Also depends on the opponent, though it seems the Pennsylvania bench of Republicans is weak.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #49 on: November 28, 2022, 04:18:26 PM »

This is a very strong Lean D race, bordering on Likely D. I can only see Casey losing in a red wave environment.

Pretty much this. Also depends on the opponent, though it seems the Pennsylvania bench of Republicans is weak.

The problem for the PA GOP is that all of their congressional Republicans are too far-right for the state at large, except for Fitzpatrick, and he would likely lose a primary.
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