2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1598153066293104641

Todd Rokita?

Marlin Stutzman and Richard Mourdock.

[Agafin]

Kemp running for Senate seems like a Sununu-type situation, where any positive momentum they had as governor could seriously run into issues in a more partisan senate run. Kemp got away with hiding a lot of his super conservative positions this time around as Governor; he wouldn't be able to do that in a senate run.

Kemp is a strong candidate whereas Ossof is not. If 2026 is a Biden midterm, the race starts as lean R at the very least.

Where is your proof of that?

Well, Ossof underperformed Biden in the general and then underperformed Warnock (granted by a smaller margin) in the runoff.

[Tekken_Guy]

Kemp running for Senate seems like a Sununu-type situation, where any positive momentum they had as governor could seriously run into issues in a more partisan senate run. Kemp got away with hiding a lot of his super conservative positions this time around as Governor; he wouldn't be able to do that in a senate run.

I think Kemp's biggest problems is the state's demographics

Kemp is a strong candidate whereas Ossof is not. If 2026 is a Biden midterm, the race starts as lean R at the very least.

Where is your proof of that?

Well, Ossof underperformed Biden in the general and then underperformed Warnock (granted by a smaller margin) in the runoff.

Kemp's biggest problem at this point is that Georgia may be too blue for him to win by 2026. Think Virginia by the mid-2010s.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1598153066293104641

Todd Rokita?

Marlin Stutzman and Richard Mourdock.

Maybe Stutzman goes for his old house seat in 2024. Or maybe his wife does instead.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ErinBamer/status/1600155555976253440

[prag_prog]

who is the best possible Dem candidate to go against Cruz in Texas Sen race in 2024 ?

[wbrocks67]

who is the best possible Dem candidate to go against Cruz in Texas Sen race in 2024 ?

Allred maybe? Or one of the Castro brothers?

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/ErinBamer/status/1600155555976253440

So he's pretty much a shoe-in? Probably Pillen is going to appoint him already, making his 2024 election a formality.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

who is the best possible Dem candidate to go against Cruz in Texas Sen race in 2024 ?

Allred maybe? Or one of the Castro brothers?

Aldred already endorsed John Love he isn't risking losing his political career over a Senate run in TX but Matthew Sancrainte has a better chance of an upset Tester, Sinema, Manchin and Scott are vulnerable but it's wave insurance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I can very well see this scenario playing out

Ruben Gallego
JUSTICE
Sancrainte

51/49 218/217 DH Garcia loses, win NY 17/19/22, AZ1/6 and VA 2

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1600588822818934784

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1602339822256914432?cxt=HHwWgICwsYXl07wsAAA...

Good on him for not dragging out the vacancy.

[Brittain33]

Good for Youngkin! Usually Republican governors leave Democratic minority seats vacant for as long as legally possible.

[Pollster]

Lots of interesting tidbits in this piece including:

-GOP is trying to talk Tiffany Smiley and Joe O'Dea into running for "battleground House seats."
-Jaime Herrera Beutler and Peter Meijer are considering comeback campaigns.
-Bill G. Schuette, the young son of the former Michigan AG and recently-elected State Rep, is the desired recruit to run against Dan Kildee.
-Derrick Anderson, George Hansel, and Theresa Gavarone are being asked to run for their respective seats again.
-Democrats want Hodge, Engel, Rollins, and Chen to run again.
-Kurt Schrader is not going to run again.
-Andy Levin not ruling out running against John James.

[Pollster]

Also:

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1601273838871859200?s=20&t=dAO3wtSQ3...

[Tekken_Guy]

Lots of interesting tidbits in this piece including:

-GOP is trying to talk Tiffany Smiley and Joe O'Dea into running for "battleground House seats."
-Jaime Herrera Beutler and Peter Meijer are considering comeback campaigns.
-Bill G. Schuette, the young son of the former Michigan AG and recently-elected State Rep, is the desired recruit to run against Dan Kildee.
-Derrick Anderson, George Hansel, and Theresa Gavarone are being asked to run for their respective seats again.
-Democrats want Hodge, Engel, Rollins, and Chen to run again.
-Kurt Schrader is not going to run again.
-Andy Levin not ruling out running against John James.

-Smiley and O’Dea don’t even live in battleground seats. There’s been talk of her running against Newhouse but unless he retires she’ll only have the MAGA wing behind her, assuming she isn’t competing with the also-rans from the 2022 primary. But a run against Perez or Schrier is a blatant carpetbag.
-Interesting the GOP is favoring Gavarone over Riedel. He finished ahead of her in the primary and a redraw would be way more favorable to him if it’s Lucas and western rurals.
-NH-02 is not worth it.

[wbrocks67]

Lots of interesting tidbits in this piece including:

-GOP is trying to talk Tiffany Smiley and Joe O'Dea into running for "battleground House seats."
-Jaime Herrera Beutler and Peter Meijer are considering comeback campaigns.
-Bill G. Schuette, the young son of the former Michigan AG and recently-elected State Rep, is the desired recruit to run against Dan Kildee.
-Derrick Anderson, George Hansel, and Theresa Gavarone are being asked to run for their respective seats again.
-Democrats want Hodge, Engel, Rollins, and Chen to run again.
-Kurt Schrader is not going to run again.
-Andy Levin not ruling out running against John James.

Agree about Hodge, Engel, Rollins, and Chen. They were some of the strongest recruits that got close this year. Schuette is an interesting one given that he has now lost statewide and in a district. Andy Levin should absolutely run. He will easily win the primary and has lots of name ID there.

[Pollster]

Schuette is an interesting one given that he has now lost statewide and in a district.

Bill G. is the son who just won a State Rep race in Midland, not the former AG who lost to Whitmer in 2018.

[wbrocks67]

Schuette is an interesting one given that he has now lost statewide and in a district.

Bill G. is the son who just won a State Rep race in Midland, not the former AG who lost to Whitmer in 2018.

ahhh gotcha, thanks.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Also:

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1601273838871859200?s=20&t=dAO3wtSQ3...

Wouldn't it be better for Democrats if they had a Hispanic run for this seat?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You know except for 2010/14 and we kept 53 Senators in 2010 we lost 60 H seats but Rs since 2006 have lost seats in either the H or the S that is a bad record 2006 LOST MO, VA, OH, PA, MT, and H seats, 2008 lost AK, nearly lost GA, NC, VA and NM, Rs lost H seats 2012 Ds held onto OH, WVA and MT, 2018 Rs lost 41 H seats, 2020 Rs lost AZ and CO and 22 Rs lost PA

It's a terrible record and to think there users on this forum totally committed still to R party

2024 we are likely to pick up FL or TX and Brown survives and Tester or Manchin win and win CA, NY Districts for a Filibuster proof Trifecta, FL totally depends on Matt Boswell some sites have him running in FL and politics 1 doesn't if he runs he will defeat Scott just like DeSantis they barely win or are vulnerable without the Rubio coalition

It's gonna be the same in 26 Collins, Tillis and Ernst are vulnerable, another R trend of LOOSING SEAT'S

[BenjiG98]

Chabot says he will NOT run in a rematch for his old OH-01 seat.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1603118576319217666

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Lots of interesting tidbits in this piece including:

-GOP is trying to talk Tiffany Smiley and Joe O'Dea into running for "battleground House seats."
-Jaime Herrera Beutler and Peter Meijer are considering comeback campaigns.
-Bill G. Schuette, the young son of the former Michigan AG and recently-elected State Rep, is the desired recruit to run against Dan Kildee.
-Derrick Anderson, George Hansel, and Theresa Gavarone are being asked to run for their respective seats again.
-Democrats want Hodge, Engel, Rollins, and Chen to run again.
-Kurt Schrader is not going to run again.
-Andy Levin not ruling out running against John James.

Rollins will be an interesting one. I thought he did quite well considering the lack of attention the race got. But I also wouldn't be surprised if a bunch of Democrats dip their toes in after seeing just how close the district actually is.

It reminds me a lot of Issa & CA-49. Doubly so if Calvert doesn't run again like I almost expect.

[Tekken_Guy]

Chabot says he will NOT run in a rematch for his old OH-01 seat.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1603118576319217666

Is this a sign that the Cincy sink will happen?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Greg Landsman is the heir Apparent to Ryan now, that Ryan has lost and could challenge Vance in 28 he isn't losing as I said Has is cheap now