2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Ferguson97]

Split Ticket's first Senate ratings:
https://split-ticket.org/2023/05/16/our-initial-2024-senate-ratings/?amp=1

Safe R: WV
Likely R: FL, TX
Lean R: OH
Tossup: AZ, MT
Lean D: MI, NV, WI
Likely D: PA

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

I would move Wisconsin and Michigan to Likely D, and move Ohio to Likely R.

[wbrocks67]

New GCBs:

Cygnal: tied, 45-45
Clarity: D+6, 47-41

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1661479532631670785

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

From Joe Kent's Twitter, it seems he's already got the backing of 4 country GOPs.
That's good because it means hopefully there won't be a divisive primary, which is what hurt him last time. McCarthy literally funnelled millions into attack ads on him that said he supported Bernie Sanders and Adolf Hitler completely unironically.

[Ferguson97]

From Joe Kent's Twitter, it seems he's already got the backing of 4 country GOPs.
That's good because it means hopefully there won't be a divisive primary, which is what hurt him last time. McCarthy literally funnelled millions into attack ads on him that said he supported Bernie Sanders and Adolf Hitler completely unironically.

Saula, why do you like Joe Kent? He's an election denier and pro-insurrectionist.

[S019]

From Joe Kent's Twitter, it seems he's already got the backing of 4 country GOPs.
That's good because it means hopefully there won't be a divisive primary, which is what hurt him last time. McCarthy literally funnelled millions into attack ads on him that said he supported Bernie Sanders and Adolf Hitler completely unironically.

Joe Kent is one of the few people who could lose the seat again for Republicans lol. If Republicans were smart, they'd ask JHB to come back.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Plse note if we get an 80/70 M vote turnout that we almost gotten in 20 81/73 not a low turnout Midterms in 22 I did the calculations, it won't be a 303 map it will be a 413 map look how close ALLRED is to Cruz he isn't down by 7 he is down by 7 Harold Ford was down 11 late to Corker that's why Corker won by 1 Ford if he was down by 5 18 MNTHS before Eday he would have won

That's why we vote not go by polls if we only go by polls Laxalt, Masters, Oz, Walker, Bevin and Blake Master would have been elected, that's what I say stop taking all polls as end all be all even Emerson had Laxalt winning and it was wrong and Johnson not winning by 1 but 5 pts

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Saula, why do you like Joe Kent? He's an election denier and pro-insurrectionist.

I imagine that's why she likes him.

[Ferguson97]

Saula, why do you like Joe Kent? He's an election denier and pro-insurrectionist.

I imagine that's why she likes him.

I figured, I'd just like to get her to explicitly say so.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Saula, why do you like Joe Kent? He's an election denier and pro-insurrectionist.

I imagine that's why she likes him.

True hehe. Also he's economically populist and anti-war.

[Ferguson97]

Saula, why do you like Joe Kent? He's an election denier and pro-insurrectionist.

I imagine that's why she likes him.

True hehe. Also he's economically populist and anti-war.

You should be embarrassed to support election denying and insurrection, and your beliefs should not be tolerated in polite society.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs needs to forget Biden losing and us not taking the H and keeping the S it's 4 unemployment no inc Prez loses with that unemployment

Split ticket has Ds fav in the H but has 51, R S what poll has BBriwn behind and Tester is fav , Tester already beat Rosedale he is a very weak candidate

[oldtimer]

From Joe Kent's Twitter, it seems he's already got the backing of 4 country GOPs.
That's good because it means hopefully there won't be a divisive primary, which is what hurt him last time. McCarthy literally funnelled millions into attack ads on him that said he supported Bernie Sanders and Adolf Hitler completely unironically.

Joe Kent is one of the few people who could lose the seat again for Republicans lol. If Republicans were smart, they'd ask JHB to come back.

JHB will never win a GOP primary.

I don't understand the fixation of some to support people in a GOP primary that can't win those primaries, they are wasted votes that someone less moderate but less extreme could win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What are the silly polls that had Trump ahead of Biden and morning Consult and Change had Biden +5 gonna say when Tues when there is no DEFAULT

[GeorgiaModerate]

From Joe Kent's Twitter, it seems he's already got the backing of 4 country GOPs.
That's good because it means hopefully there won't be a divisive primary, which is what hurt him last time. McCarthy literally funnelled millions into attack ads on him that said he supported Bernie Sanders and Adolf Hitler completely unironically.

Joe Kent is one of the few people who could lose the seat again for Republicans lol. If Republicans were smart, they'd ask JHB to come back.

JHB will never win a GOP primary.

I don't understand the fixation of some to support people in a GOP primary that can't win those primaries, they are wasted votes that someone less moderate but less extreme could win.

I'm struggling with the combination of "less moderate but less extreme".  Can you give an example?

[Person Man]

New GCBs:

Cygnal: tied, 45-45
Clarity: D+6, 47-41

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1661479532631670785

Where does that put the average at then?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1663855590261809152

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1664740132413489153

[Vosem]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1664740132413489153

Fun fact: this guy was reelected to the state Senate in 2022 by 10 votes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1664740132413489153

Fun fact: this guy was reelected to the state Senate in 2022 by 10 votes.

The dam is already starting to break Rs are down 16 pts in VA and this isn't George Floyd mirage in 20 where Biden was up 14 in WI

That's why I made a nut map J6 is gonna break the R Party , it's not about if Biden wins its about how much he wins bye and it's not just a 303 map there are blks in red states too you know

We are gonna find out in Nov 23 with these S G Rs were supposed to sweep they might get swept LA is going to a Runoff  that's why you don't hear from MT Treasure or 2016

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1663855590261809152

Congratulations to Tom Kean Jr. on winning re-election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1663855590261809152

Congratulations to Tom Kean Jr. on winning re-election.

Lol do you know how much Biden is gonna win NJ by 15 pts 55/41 and Kean Jr isn't winning reelection he is one of the most vulnerable 5 Lawler, Santos, Brobert, Garcia and Kean Jr

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The blue wall is GONE ALREADY FOR BOTH TRUMP ABD DeSantis if they are down 16 in VA and 9 pts in PA

Rs are endangered in red states because Wesley Bell, ALLRED, Stein and Brown are gonna overperformrned a Generic D on that state

Filibuster scorecard

Lean D AZ, MT, OH
Tossup MO, TX
Wish list FL, WV

It's a reason why they haven't polled OH S Rs aren't substantial ahead in OH because DeWine isn't on the ballot Brown is kneck and kneck with Dolan

[Pollster]

Very impressive numbers in a highly cost-prohibitive district.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1666454093148069893?s=20

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1663855590261809152

Congratulations to Tom Kean Jr. on winning re-election.

this already didn't age well given the above post

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 3o3 map but with Trump indictnebt and Biden up 16 in VA not 5 a tsunami can develop