2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Mr.Phips]

On the flipside, I feel like the initial Republican target list might look something like this:

AK-AL (Peltola)
CA-47 (Porter)
CO-08 (Caraveo)
CT-05 (Hayes)
FL-23 (Moskowitz)
IL-17 (Sorenson)
ME-02 (Golden)
MI-03 (Scholten)
MI-07 (Slotkin)
MI-08 (Kildee)
MN-02 (Craig)
NH-01 (Pappas)
NJ-03 (Kim)
NM-02 (Vasquez)
NY-18 (Ryan)
OH-09 (Kaptur)
OH-13 (Sykes)
OR-06 (Salinas)
PA-07 (Wild)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
PA-17 (DeLuzio)
RI-02 (Magaziner)
TX-34 (Gonzalez)
VA-07 (Spanberger)
WA-03 (Gluesenkamp Perez)
WA-08 (Schrier)

Almost none of these are going anywhere in a presidential year. Sure, PA-08, WA-03, and OH-09 could always fall most of the others other went for Biden or solidly went for him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds are the odds on favs to win the H and it's too early in the S but there is a pathway for Ds to retain the Senate

[ProgressiveModerate]

On the flipside, I feel like the initial Republican target list might look something like this:

AK-AL (Peltola)
CA-47 (Porter)
CO-08 (Caraveo)
CT-05 (Hayes)
FL-23 (Moskowitz)
IL-17 (Sorenson)
ME-02 (Golden)
MI-03 (Scholten)
MI-07 (Slotkin)
MI-08 (Kildee)
MN-02 (Craig)
NH-01 (Pappas)
NJ-03 (Kim)
NM-02 (Vasquez)
NY-18 (Ryan)
OH-09 (Kaptur)
OH-13 (Sykes)
OR-06 (Salinas)
PA-07 (Wild)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
PA-17 (DeLuzio)
RI-02 (Magaziner)
TX-34 (Gonzalez)
VA-07 (Spanberger)
WA-03 (Gluesenkamp Perez)
WA-08 (Schrier)

Almost none of these are going anywhere in a presidential year. Sure, PA-08, WA-03, and OH-09 could always fall most of the others other went for Biden or solidly went for him.

Rs always seem to overreach in where they spend their time and resources. We saw this in 2022 with Smiley and O'Dea being the most notable examples.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Maybe this isn't the appropriate thread but I have a question. If SCOTUS strikes down redistricting commissions doesn't that mean that a bunch of states will have to re-redistrict?
The conventional wisdom was that such a decision would hurt Democrats but I don't see how that happens when they'll have the chance to gerrymander California, New Jersey, New York, Michigan, Colorado, Washington, while Republicans can do it only in Arizona and Iowa.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

On the flipside, I feel like the initial Republican target list might look something like this:

AK-AL (Peltola)
CA-47 (Porter)
CO-08 (Caraveo)
CT-05 (Hayes)
FL-23 (Moskowitz)
IL-17 (Sorenson)
ME-02 (Golden)
MI-03 (Scholten)
MI-07 (Slotkin)
MI-08 (Kildee)
MN-02 (Craig)
NH-01 (Pappas)
NJ-03 (Kim)
NM-02 (Vasquez)
NY-18 (Ryan)
OH-09 (Kaptur)
OH-13 (Sykes)
OR-06 (Salinas)
PA-07 (Wild)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
PA-17 (DeLuzio)
RI-02 (Magaziner)
TX-34 (Gonzalez)
VA-07 (Spanberger)
WA-03 (Gluesenkamp Perez)
WA-08 (Schrier)

Almost none of these are going anywhere in a presidential year. Sure, PA-08, WA-03, and OH-09 could always fall most of the others other went for Biden or solidly went for him.

Except we don't know what the environment will look like in 2024. It could be a d leaning year, a red leaning year or a red tsunami.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

On the flipside, I feel like the initial Republican target list might look something like this:

AK-AL (Peltola)
CA-47 (Porter)
CO-08 (Caraveo)
CT-05 (Hayes)
FL-23 (Moskowitz)
IL-17 (Sorenson)
ME-02 (Golden)
MI-03 (Scholten)
MI-07 (Slotkin)
MI-08 (Kildee)
MN-02 (Craig)
NH-01 (Pappas)
NJ-03 (Kim)
NM-02 (Vasquez)
NY-18 (Ryan)
OH-09 (Kaptur)
OH-13 (Sykes)
OR-06 (Salinas)
PA-07 (Wild)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
PA-17 (DeLuzio)
RI-02 (Magaziner)
TX-34 (Gonzalez)
VA-07 (Spanberger)
WA-03 (Gluesenkamp Perez)
WA-08 (Schrier)

Almost none of these are going anywhere in a presidential year. Sure, PA-08, WA-03, and OH-09 could always fall most of the others other went for Biden or solidly went for him.

Except we don't know what the environment will look like in 2024. It could be a d leaning year, a red leaning year or a red tsunami.

Why not a blue tsunami?

[Mr.Phips]

Maybe this isn't the appropriate thread but I have a question. If SCOTUS strikes down redistricting commissions doesn't that mean that a bunch of states will have to re-redistrict?
The conventional wisdom was that such a decision would hurt Democrats but I don't see how that happens when they'll have the chance to gerrymander California, New Jersey, New York, Michigan, Colorado, Washington, while Republicans can do it only in Arizona and Iowa.

Which is probably why SCOTUS likely won’t strike down redistricting commissions. 

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

On the flipside, I feel like the initial Republican target list might look something like this:

AK-AL (Peltola)
CA-47 (Porter)
CO-08 (Caraveo)
CT-05 (Hayes)
FL-23 (Moskowitz)
IL-17 (Sorenson)
ME-02 (Golden)
MI-03 (Scholten)
MI-07 (Slotkin)
MI-08 (Kildee)
MN-02 (Craig)
NH-01 (Pappas)
NJ-03 (Kim)
NM-02 (Vasquez)
NY-18 (Ryan)
OH-09 (Kaptur)
OH-13 (Sykes)
OR-06 (Salinas)
PA-07 (Wild)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
PA-17 (DeLuzio)
RI-02 (Magaziner)
TX-34 (Gonzalez)
VA-07 (Spanberger)
WA-03 (Gluesenkamp Perez)
WA-08 (Schrier)

Almost none of these are going anywhere in a presidential year. Sure, PA-08, WA-03, and OH-09 could always fall most of the others other went for Biden or solidly went for him.

Except we don't know what the environment will look like in 2024. It could be a d leaning year, a red leaning year or a red tsunami.

Why not a blue tsunami?

Should have put that lol. It would be unprecedented for a Blue tsunami with a dem president but hey, this year was unprecedented too

[Tekken_Guy]

On the flipside, I feel like the initial Republican target list might look something like this:

AK-AL (Peltola)
CA-47 (Porter)
CO-08 (Caraveo)
CT-05 (Hayes)
FL-23 (Moskowitz)
IL-17 (Sorenson)
ME-02 (Golden)
MI-03 (Scholten)
MI-07 (Slotkin)
MI-08 (Kildee)
MN-02 (Craig)
NH-01 (Pappas)
NJ-03 (Kim)
NM-02 (Vasquez)
NY-18 (Ryan)
OH-09 (Kaptur)
OH-13 (Sykes)
OR-06 (Salinas)
PA-07 (Wild)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
PA-17 (DeLuzio)
RI-02 (Magaziner)
TX-34 (Gonzalez)
VA-07 (Spanberger)
WA-03 (Gluesenkamp Perez)
WA-08 (Schrier)

Almost none of these are going anywhere in a presidential year. Sure, PA-08, WA-03, and OH-09 could always fall most of the others other went for Biden or solidly went for him.

Except we don't know what the environment will look like in 2024. It could be a d leaning year, a red leaning year or a red tsunami.

Why not a blue tsunami?

Should have put that lol. It would be unprecedented for a Blue tsunami with a dem president but hey, this year was unprecedented too

Biden: the reverse Ronald Reagan?

[Dani Rose]

I feel like CO-03 should be on both parties' list at this point. The GOP would be insane not to try and get Boebert out after this year, because she's probably going down if she's the nominee again.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I feel like CO-03 should be on both parties' list at this point. The GOP would be insane not to try and get Boebert out after this year, because she's probably going down if she's the nominee again.

That usually happens with controversial underperforming incumbents in time. See Steve King. Also Madison Cawthorn probably would've become such an example had he not already been tossed in the primary this year.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like CO-03 should be on both parties' list at this point. The GOP would be insane not to try and get Boebert out after this year, because she's probably going down if she's the nominee again.

That usually happens with controversial underperforming incumbents in time. See Steve King. Also Madison Cawthorn probably would've become such an example had he not already been tossed in the primary this year.

But CO-03 isn’t as R to begin with, and has been shifting hard left.

[brucejoel99]

Technically not 2024 news, but Ossoff vs. Kemp in 2026 it is:

https://twitter.com/emma_hurt/status/1596975849021980672

[wbrocks67]

Kemp running for Senate seems like a Sununu-type situation, where any positive momentum they had as governor could seriously run into issues in a more partisan senate run. Kemp got away with hiding a lot of his super conservative positions this time around as Governor; he wouldn't be able to do that in a senate run.

[S019]

On the flipside, I feel like the initial Republican target list might look something like this:

AK-AL (Peltola)
CA-47 (Porter)
CO-08 (Caraveo)
CT-05 (Hayes)
FL-23 (Moskowitz)
IL-17 (Sorenson)
ME-02 (Golden)
MI-03 (Scholten)
MI-07 (Slotkin)
MI-08 (Kildee)
MN-02 (Craig)
NH-01 (Pappas)
NJ-03 (Kim)
NM-02 (Vasquez)
NY-18 (Ryan)
OH-09 (Kaptur)
OH-13 (Sykes)
OR-06 (Salinas)
PA-07 (Wild)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
PA-17 (DeLuzio)
RI-02 (Magaziner)
TX-34 (Gonzalez)
VA-07 (Spanberger)
WA-03 (Gluesenkamp Perez)
WA-08 (Schrier)

Most of these bolded ones are stretch seats and some are outright ridiculous (TX-34, NJ-03, MI-03), also seats like RI-02 and FL-23 probably won't be competitive again.

[Gracile]

NJ-07: Rep. Malinowski leaves the door open to potentially challenging Kean for a third time-

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1598011952252342272

[Mr.Phips]

On the flipside, I feel like the initial Republican target list might look something like this:

AK-AL (Peltola)
CA-47 (Porter)
CO-08 (Caraveo)
CT-05 (Hayes)
FL-23 (Moskowitz)
IL-17 (Sorenson)
ME-02 (Golden)
MI-03 (Scholten)
MI-07 (Slotkin)
MI-08 (Kildee)
MN-02 (Craig)
NH-01 (Pappas)
NJ-03 (Kim)
NM-02 (Vasquez)
NY-18 (Ryan)
OH-09 (Kaptur)
OH-13 (Sykes)
OR-06 (Salinas)
PA-07 (Wild)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
PA-17 (DeLuzio)
RI-02 (Magaziner)
TX-34 (Gonzalez)
VA-07 (Spanberger)
WA-03 (Gluesenkamp Perez)
WA-08 (Schrier)

Most of these bolded ones are stretch seats and some are outright ridiculous (TX-34, NJ-03, MI-03), also seats like RI-02 and FL-23 probably won't be competitive again.

I always thought RI-02 in 2022 would be a lot like KS-02 in 2018.  Open seats that pretty strongly favor one party in a good year for the opposite party with a really good candidate, but are no longer competitive after that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Debt Ceiling fight I already know what's it gonna be it's gonna be the WV pipeline which is gonna help Manchin get reelected, Border Security the same border wall Obama and Biden built 128 m before Trump that will help Biden and they gonna extend tax cuts not make them permanent just until the next Debt Ceiling which is gonna set the Ds up perfectly for 2024 knocking off Sinema and winning the H with Biden winning the PVI 51/47 and Tester, Brown and Gallego winning  for a 218/217D H and 51/49 S

The compromise was already set up in 2012/2014 with Boehner it's in Committee already , that's why Biden is already meeting Speaker Designate McCarthy and he wins like with 216 on a technicality he will be Speaker Biden already said it

Of course I am partisan I want a 5248 D S with John Love III winning but Fetterman won PA 51/47 by the same margin Obama won in 2012 it's a 303 map

37/57 Approvals are nonsense with 4% unemployment yeah when unemployment was 10% in 2010, that's why Rs didn't get 240 4 percent unemployment, and Beasley Ryan win if Biden was on the ballot and Barnes Brown has an excellent chance of winning because Biden not DeWine is on the ballot in 24

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/nicholaswu12/status/1598008878737764352

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1598153066293104641

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1598153066293104641

Todd Rokita?

[Agafin]

Kemp running for Senate seems like a Sununu-type situation, where any positive momentum they had as governor could seriously run into issues in a more partisan senate run. Kemp got away with hiding a lot of his super conservative positions this time around as Governor; he wouldn't be able to do that in a senate run.

Kemp is a strong candidate whereas Ossof is not. If 2026 is a Biden midterm, the race starts as lean R at the very least.

[wbrocks67]

Kemp running for Senate seems like a Sununu-type situation, where any positive momentum they had as governor could seriously run into issues in a more partisan senate run. Kemp got away with hiding a lot of his super conservative positions this time around as Governor; he wouldn't be able to do that in a senate run.

Kemp is a strong candidate whereas Ossof is not. If 2026 is a Biden midterm, the race starts as lean R at the very least.

Where is your proof of that?

[Holmes]

Kemp running for Senate seems like a Sununu-type situation, where any positive momentum they had as governor could seriously run into issues in a more partisan senate run. Kemp got away with hiding a lot of his super conservative positions this time around as Governor; he wouldn't be able to do that in a senate run.

Kemp is a strong candidate whereas Ossof is not. If 2026 is a Biden midterm, the race starts as lean R at the very least.

Where is your proof of that?

Right. The guy literally won a statewide election in a runoff by just a couple of tenths of percentage points less than Warnock, which everyone says is the electoral titan.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Kemp running for Senate seems like a Sununu-type situation, where any positive momentum they had as governor could seriously run into issues in a more partisan senate run. Kemp got away with hiding a lot of his super conservative positions this time around as Governor; he wouldn't be able to do that in a senate run.

Kemp is a strong candidate whereas Ossof is not. If 2026 is a Biden midterm, the race starts as lean R at the very least.

Osoff is a solid incumbent who ran a really good campaign in 2020 and upset a supposedly strong incumbent in a race no one seriously expected him to win (IIRC even Schumer basically wrote off his race a week or two before the runoff).  Kemp is a strong candidate on paper with some major vulnerabilities that tend to get overlooked (to the point that it’s unclear whether he’d actually be anywhere near as strong as he appears at first glance, I don’t think he is although that’s not to say he’s a weak candidate either) who may or may not be able to win the primary (Perdue’s gubernatorial campaign was a complete dumpster fire and thus not a very good test).  Moreover, Georgia is rapidly trending more and more Democratic by the day and the greater Atlanta metro is absolutely zooming to  the left with no end in sight.  

Barring something unexpected or a massive Republication wave, the best case scenario for Republicans is probably that an Osoff vs. Perdue race starts Tilt D, but four years is a long time.  By then, it may very well start off Lean D.  Of course, it’s really way too early to seriously discuss this race, but if we’re going to do so then there is absolutely no reason to think Republicans would start out the favorites here (with or without Kemp).  

2022 is probably the best chance Republicans will have at a Georgia Senate seat for quite a while barring something truly unexpected given that Democrats have two extremely strong incumbent Senators who are pretty young by Senate standards and the greater Atlanta metro/Atlanta suburbs’ trends.