2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Gracile]

Mondaire Jones is gearing up to run for his old seat again, setting up a primary fight between him and Liz Whitmer Gereghty (Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer's sister):

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/28/dem-primary-exlawmaker-govs-sister-00094269

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mondaire Jones is gearing up to run for his old seat again, setting up a primary fight between him and Liz Whitmer Gereghty (Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer's sister):

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/28/dem-primary-exlawmaker-govs-sister-00094269

Gereghty would be a stronger candidate although I am not sold on her either.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Mondaire Jones is gearing up to run for his old seat again, setting up a primary fight between him and Liz Whitmer Gereghty (Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer's sister):

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/28/dem-primary-exlawmaker-govs-sister-00094269

Gereghty would be a stronger candidate although I am not sold on her either.

She would suck too. Granted, we might get a more favorable map in NY but who knows

[wbrocks67]

MD-06 is not a reach opportunity. This is embarrassing

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1654070533426753537

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1654179197114548229

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls show today Biden lost his 5/10 pt edge as we move closer to Default, but Trump plus 7 is silly gas prices aren't 7.00 , but it's closer to 5

Polls go from one extreme to another

[Gracile]

Mondaire Jones is gearing up to run for his old seat again, setting up a primary fight between him and Liz Whitmer Gereghty (Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer's sister):

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/28/dem-primary-exlawmaker-govs-sister-00094269

Gereghty is officially in for NY-17:

https://twitter.com/ercovey/status/1655926621319098370

[wbrocks67]

Thought this was interesting:

https://twitter.com/John__Cole/status/1655991546942980123

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Thought this was interesting:

https://twitter.com/John__Cole/status/1655991546942980123

RNC got pantsed so bad they completely abandoned PA. Love it.

[wesmoorenerd]

Thought this was interesting:

https://twitter.com/John__Cole/status/1655991546942980123

Poor list that was clearly whipped up for the sake of "balance." You cannot seriously tell me you'd rather be Valadao, Bacon, Molinaro, or Schweikert than Caraveo or Vasquez.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1658107661743796225?s=20

fun note: were she to win it would mean 2/3 of the 02 ladies’ podium were serving in US political office.

[progressive85]

I had to look who it was (Michelle Kwan, Ambassador to Belize)

plus with Mitt Romney who presided over the planning for the 2002 Olympics in the Senate.

[Atlas Force]

I had to look who it was (Michelle Kwan, Ambassador to Belize)

TIL Kwan holds an ambassadorship now

[progressive85]

I had to look who it was (Michelle Kwan, Ambassador to Belize)

TIL Kwan holds an ambassadorship now

Yes I had no idea... to Belize?  Also I'm beginning to realize that there doesn't seem to be any special connections to the country when ambassadors are chosen... which is weird.  Does that anybody can become Ambassador to anywhere?

[Spectator]

I had to look who it was (Michelle Kwan, Ambassador to Belize)

TIL Kwan holds an ambassadorship now

Yes I had no idea... to Belize?  Also I'm beginning to realize that there doesn't seem to be any special connections to the country when ambassadors are chosen... which is weird.  Does that anybody can become Ambassador to anywhere?

Some ambassadorships are from the civil service, usually people that have worked in diplomacy for years. Others are direct political appointees.

[Pollster]

I had to look who it was (Michelle Kwan, Ambassador to Belize)

TIL Kwan holds an ambassadorship now

Yes I had no idea... to Belize?  Also I'm beginning to realize that there doesn't seem to be any special connections to the country when ambassadors are chosen... which is weird.  Does that anybody can become Ambassador to anywhere?

Some ambassadorships are from the civil service, usually people that have worked in diplomacy for years. Others are direct political appointees.

Ambassadorships are frequently traded in exchange for political favors and especially major donations as they generate little press attention and are generally easy to confirm in the Senate even when the opposition party is in the majority. Elizabeth Warren made bucking this tradition a central part of her anti-corruption platform in 2020 but it didn't gain much traction.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a landslide folk's just like Bernie said it would be 1976 map FL, VA, MO, SC, GA S and NC, MS, LA and KY G

We will find out tonight with Deegan and if she wins Scott is gonna, Ds lost in FL not because Ds voted R it's that Ds didn't show up so FL isn't Safe R, it's a swing state

[Landslide Lyndon]

I had to look who it was (Michelle Kwan, Ambassador to Belize)

TIL Kwan holds an ambassadorship now

Yes I had no idea... to Belize?  Also I'm beginning to realize that there doesn't seem to be any special connections to the country when ambassadors are chosen... which is weird.  Does that anybody can become Ambassador to anywhere?

Some ambassadorships are from the civil service, usually people that have worked in diplomacy for years. Others are direct political appointees.

The critical ambassadorships are always filled that way. The American ambassador here in Athens is always an experienced diplomat, sometimes a Greek-American. 

[Roll Roons]

Split Ticket's first Senate ratings:
https://split-ticket.org/2023/05/16/our-initial-2024-senate-ratings/?amp=1

Safe R: WV
Likely R: FL, TX
Lean R: OH
Tossup: AZ, MT
Lean D: MI, NV, WI
Likely D: PA

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Split Ticket's first Senate ratings:
https://split-ticket.org/2023/05/16/our-initial-2024-senate-ratings/?amp=1

Safe R: WV
Likely R: FL, TX
Lean R: OH
Tossup: AZ, MT
Lean D: MI, NV, WI
Likely D: PA

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

I think this is the likeliest possible outcome, with AZ and MT going D as well. I can see an argument for MT going R or NV ending up tilt D, but I don't see much elasticity outside of those races.

EDIT: Oh, duh, Ohio should be tossup or tilt D. Other than that, though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Split Ticket's first Senate ratings:
https://split-ticket.org/2023/05/16/our-initial-2024-senate-ratings/?amp=1

Safe R: WV
Likely R: FL, TX
Lean R: OH
Tossup: AZ, MT
Lean D: MI, NV, WI
Likely D: PA

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

FL should be Safe R, OH should be tossup, TX should be Lean R, MI and PA should be Safe D, and NV should tentatively be Likely D (obviously subject to change if Republicans unexpectedly manage to find something better than the C-listers they currently seem to be stuck with).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Split Ticket's first Senate ratings:
https://split-ticket.org/2023/05/16/our-initial-2024-senate-ratings/?amp=1

Safe R: WV
Likely R: FL, TX
Lean R: OH
Tossup: AZ, MT
Lean D: MI, NV, WI
Likely D: PA

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

FL should be Safe R, OH should be tossup, TX should be Lean R, MI and PA should be Safe D, and NV should tentatively be Likely D (obviously subject to change if Republicans unexpectedly manage to find something better than the C-listers they currently seem to be stuck with).

Biden is up 6 pts that's a blue wave and Ds in FL, TX and MO can win in a 10 pt leads they said McCormick now can win IN it's not a 303 map only it's wave insurance

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1659600043484102668

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1659600550789521408

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ratings are meaningless as I tell you Steve Konraki said this whom would of thought Rs were gomna out poll Ds in NY and Ds lose the H on NY that's a Midterm not Prez and we only won PVI by 1 we win wave insurance if we win the PVI by 5

That's why I have us winning KY, MS G and netting MO and TX S, Provisions ballots benefits Ds

Kunce was on MSNBC today and said in a Prez Yr he will win and ALLRED is married to a Caucasian women and Obama, Harris and Harold Ford Jr are mixed

Users keep comparing Brown to Ryan yeah Ryam lost by 5 and we only won the PVI by 1 if we win the PVI by more than 1 Ryan and Barnes win

[Rhenna]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1661119480947261443?s=46&t=w_Magtzeyi-eKwoDhS1W3Q
Malinowski OUT for NJ-7 rematch