2022 without Jan 6

[BigVic]

What if Trump conceded the election and allowed a smooth transfer of power 2 years ago. How will this year's midterms had gone?

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

The GOP would do slightly better, but Democrats being fired up by Dobbs would still be a factor

[Lord Admirale]

House is probably 235 R 200 D, NV and PA go R, which hands the GOP a Senate majority regardless of how GA's runoff goes.

[BigVic]

Senate will go 54-46 R with House going 242-193 R

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Among the earliest effects of this would be a win for Perdue and Loeffler in the 2020 GA runoffs.

[bagelman]

Among the earliest effects of this would be a win for Perdue and Loeffler in the 2020 GA runoffs.

That was the day before, unless you're referring to a peaceful and relatively civilized Trump concession speech around Thanksgiving 2020. Even then....

This question is unpredictable because lots of GOP primaries would change. Runoffs flipping change the whole dynamic of Biden's presidency because Cocaine Mitch is still blocking him on everything. So I'm going to assume that the Georgia runoffs are both Dem pickups for the sake of convergence.

Oz still wins in PA and still loses the general to BIG JOHN Fetterman, but the race may need to wait for Philadelphia to come in to call with confidence. However, I think Laxalt flips NV-SEN, so GOP gets to 50 at least. Anything more depends on Republican primaries. Republicans win the house with a larger margin, holding seats like WA-3.

For Gubernatorial races, again a lot depends on Republican primaries nominating saner candidates. Without election denialism, the big 3 of PA/MI/WI are rosier for Republicans but not guaranteed flips. Arizona definitely holds for the GOP as NV flips.

[Schiff for Senate]

The GOP would do slightly better, but Democrats being fired up by Dobbs would still be a factor

This. The GOP would do slightly to somewhat better, but it still wouldn't really be a "red wave" at all.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If Trump just goes away without the stolen election narrative, thus precluding the January 6 events, then his influence in the party fades. Remember the stolen election narrative was to preserve his influence and prevent a discussion of "what happened in 2020".

I even tried to have this exact conversation with someone and their response was "I don't want to reflect on what Trump did wrong, because Trump won and it was stolen".

In this scenario then I expect the following to happen:

1. Perdue wins his GA Runoff. Loeffler loses

2. Republicans do better with indies, but still suffer because of the abortion issue.

3. Pat Toomey runs for Governor and McSwain runs for Senate, both likely win their primaries though you can never be sure about these things obviously. Oz never runs for Senate and Mastriano doesn't rise to prominence and doesn't become nominee. McSwain beats Fetterman, and Governor is a nail bitter.

4. A stronger slate is nominated in Arizona, possibly with Ducey running for Senate.

5. DeSantis still dominates Florida and becomes the frontrunner for 2024.

[Make America Grumpy Again]

Senate: Assuming Oz gets the nomination, he could win although it would come down to the Eastern PA suburbs where he'd be in a more favorable position. NH could flip depending on the nominee but I think Hassan narrowly pulls it off.
House: Likely wins a few close races and most Reps that voted to impeach aren't likely to face any primary challenges and if they are, they're not serious. Kinzinger & Cheney remain and Cheney likely is given a leadership role thanks to name recognition. Palin likely wins the special so GOP incumbency would be favored in the general.
Governor: Some of the 1/6 nominees don't run (namely Lake & Mastriano). Assuming Robson is the nominee, then AZ flips by a comfortable margin and Michels wins in WI. PA could flip depending on the nominee as well assuming it's not Mastriano. If Schulz is the nominee without Cox, she's likely win thanks to Hogan's tailwinds. If Baker runs for a third term, he'd easily win the general but the primary would be the toughest obstacle. I think he narrowly pulls it off but it would be razor thin due to opposition to his policies regarding Covid.
However I think overturning Roe hurt the GOP more politically than 1/6.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

(I think 1/6 played a role but I could be mistaken)

I think Toomey announced his retirement in October 2020.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

(I think 1/6 played a role but I could be mistaken)

I think Toomey announced his retirement in October 2020.

Toomey was going to retire in 2022 as far back as 2010, if he got reelected. He is a big proponent of 3 term limit for house (1999-2005 in PA-15 Lehigh Valley) and two term limit in the Senate (2011-2023 in Class 3 Senate Seat).

The only thing that Toomey ever would have ran for in 2022 would be Governor, which he originally ran for in 2010 beginning in late 2008 only to jump over for a rematch against Specter in 2009 after Specter voted for the Stimulus. Specter's numbers tanked and he bailed on the GOP a month or so later.

[paxamericana]

The outcome would have been the exact same. Jan 06 wasn't a major factor in the disappointing midterms.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The outcome would have been the exact same. Jan 06 wasn't a major factor in the disappointing midterms.

Now, but Trump was, or rather Trump's ability to loom large over the nominating process in so many states.

This not only affected who won among those who did run, but also discouraged many candidates from running including the best candidates the GOP had for PA Governor, NH Senate and Arizona Senator.

The theory behind removing Jan 6th is not that the issue itself is what caused the election to necessarily go badly (though I do think election denial more broadly did), but that by removing the hook that allowed Trump to maintain his relevance, you diminish his shadow over the rest of the party.

Suddenly Trump isn't the man who was robbed, but a loser whose failures cost the GOP the Presidency.

[Sir Mohamed]

Hot take: Literally no difference.

[Schiff for Senate]

Senate will go 54-46 R with House going 242-193 R

Lol no, Democrats would do much better than that even without J6. The insurrection attempt didn’t have nearly enough of an impact on voters’ decisions as it should have.

[Enduro]

The GOP would do slightly better, but Democrats being fired up by Dobbs would still be a factor

A very concise and accurate assessment.

[bagelman]

If Trump just goes away without the stolen election narrative, thus precluding the January 6 events, then his influence in the party fades. Remember the stolen election narrative was to preserve his influence and prevent a discussion of "what happened in 2020".

I even tried to have this exact conversation with someone and their response was "I don't want to reflect on what Trump did wrong, because Trump won and it was stolen".

In this scenario then I expect the following to happen:

1. Perdue wins his GA Runoff. Loeffler loses

2. Republicans do better with indies, but still suffer because of the abortion issue.

3. Pat Toomey runs for Governor and McSwain runs for Senate, both likely win their primaries though you can never be sure about these things obviously. Oz never runs for Senate and Mastriano doesn't rise to prominence and doesn't become nominee. McSwain beats Fetterman, and Governor is a nail bitter.

4. A stronger slate is nominated in Arizona, possibly with Ducey running for Senate.

5. DeSantis still dominates Florida and becomes the frontrunner for 2024.

In your scenario, Mitch controls the Senate at 51R and could have a majority of as many as 54. Nevada would almost certainly flip, as Laxalt wouldn't have tried to overturn the election results. With PA holding that's 52, Ducey could make Arizona interesting for 53, and lastly a competent Republican nominee in Georgia would be 54. Warnock is a good candidate and deserved the win he got, but considering Kemp's performance he was beatable.

I think Democrats hold PA-GOV in your scenario, Toomey is no electoral titan and tends to underpreform.