California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)
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  California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)
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Canis
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« Reply #750 on: May 29, 2023, 04:19:19 PM »


Yeah that's pretty much the case. Porter is leading right now due to name rec but she doesn't have a machine that will bring people out to vote for her knock doors make phone calls etc. Porters support is soft rn and from low info voters who are less likely to turnout or spread the word and encourage others to vote for her. Lee will have plenty of grassroots support and her support will be more solid and more likely to be mainted and expanded. Essentially Lee has more room to grow and larger engine to keep her in the race and her fundraising will be more reliable since she has more organizations and elected officials backing her and you need a lot of money and a consistent stream of if to compete in a state as big as Cali

But that's the thing, Porter has a huge online fundraising network, she really does not need to worry about local officials throwing her a $1,000 a plate fundraisers. Same with Schiff.  Honestly the reason I think Lee is likely to finish behind Schiff and Porter in the primary is I don't think she can fundraise with them.


I mean does she really though? She had a great launch yes with donors from across the country but when people from outside Cali learn about Lee especially if a national figure like Bernie endorses her, will as many people keep there donations to her up? One of the reasons she had such a successful launch too was there's no major national races going on now. As we get closer to November there will be the presidential race, the national Senate race and the house. Most national donors are gonna put Katie's Senate race at a much lower priority while all the in state organizations and donors who will be backing Lee will still have a vested interest in the race and it will be one of there top priorities.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #751 on: May 29, 2023, 05:14:00 PM »


I mean does she really though? She had a great launch yes with donors from across the country but when people from outside Cali learn about Lee especially if a national figure like Bernie endorses her, will as many people keep there donations to her up? One of the reasons she had such a successful launch too was there's no major national races going on now. As we get closer to November there will be the presidential race, the national Senate race and the house. Most national donors are gonna put Katie's Senate race at a much lower priority while all the in state organizations and donors who will be backing Lee will still have a vested interest in the race and it will be one of there top priorities.

Honestly I think this race will be over after the March Primary.  With three major Democratic candidates I think it's likely a Republican finishes in the top 2.
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Canis
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« Reply #752 on: May 29, 2023, 05:31:58 PM »


I mean does she really though? She had a great launch yes with donors from across the country but when people from outside Cali learn about Lee especially if a national figure like Bernie endorses her, will as many people keep there donations to her up? One of the reasons she had such a successful launch too was there's no major national races going on now. As we get closer to November there will be the presidential race, the national Senate race and the house. Most national donors are gonna put Katie's Senate race at a much lower priority while all the in state organizations and donors who will be backing Lee will still have a vested interest in the race and it will be one of there top priorities.

Honestly I think this race will be over after the March Primary.  With three major Democratic candidates I think it's likely a Republican finishes in the top 2.
Rs aren't gonna invest in this race there's already 6 republican candidates in and that will likely grow a bit. Rs actually prefer a democrat vs democrat runoff so d money is wasted there instead of the competitive house seats. Not saying a republican making the runoff is impossible, but I wouldn't hedge my bets on it.
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« Reply #753 on: May 29, 2023, 05:42:55 PM »

I mean does she really though? She had a great launch yes with donors from across the country but when people from outside Cali learn about Lee especially if a national figure like Bernie endorses her, will as many people keep there donations to her up? One of the reasons she had such a successful launch too was there's no major national races going on now. As we get closer to November there will be the presidential race, the national Senate race and the house. Most national donors are gonna put Katie's Senate race at a much lower priority while all the in state organizations and donors who will be backing Lee will still have a vested interest in the race and it will be one of there top priorities.

Honestly I think this race will be over after the March Primary.  With three major Democratic candidates I think it's likely a Republican finishes in the top 2.
Rs aren't gonna invest in this race there's already 6 republican candidates in and that will likely grow a bit. Rs actually prefer a democrat vs democrat runoff so d money is wasted there instead of the competitive house seats. Not saying a republican making the runoff is impossible, but I wouldn't hedge my bets on it.

The thing is, a D v D race in California arguably could cost Republicans House seats there. They should be trying to get one of their candidates into the runoff, because that would help them in the House races more than it would hurt them.
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Canis
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« Reply #754 on: May 29, 2023, 05:48:07 PM »

I mean does she really though? She had a great launch yes with donors from across the country but when people from outside Cali learn about Lee especially if a national figure like Bernie endorses her, will as many people keep there donations to her up? One of the reasons she had such a successful launch too was there's no major national races going on now. As we get closer to November there will be the presidential race, the national Senate race and the house. Most national donors are gonna put Katie's Senate race at a much lower priority while all the in state organizations and donors who will be backing Lee will still have a vested interest in the race and it will be one of there top priorities.

Honestly I think this race will be over after the March Primary.  With three major Democratic candidates I think it's likely a Republican finishes in the top 2.
Rs aren't gonna invest in this race there's already 6 republican candidates in and that will likely grow a bit. Rs actually prefer a democrat vs democrat runoff so d money is wasted there instead of the competitive house seats. Not saying a republican making the runoff is impossible, but I wouldn't hedge my bets on it.

The thing is, a D v D race in California arguably could cost Republicans House seats there. They should be trying to get one of their candidates into the runoff, because that would help them in the House races more than it would hurt them.
It won't though, it would just be a waste of resources and take funds from house and state leg candidates. Rs are gonna turnout for the GOP nominee for president no matter what. There is not a republican who won't vote because they don't have a candidate for president. If this was an off year id agree with you but this just isn't the case during a presidential year.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #755 on: May 29, 2023, 07:11:26 PM »

If it's D vs D, will Humboldt and Mendocino vote to the left of the Bay Area like in 2018?
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #756 on: May 30, 2023, 12:40:12 AM »


I mean does she really though? She had a great launch yes with donors from across the country but when people from outside Cali learn about Lee especially if a national figure like Bernie endorses her, will as many people keep there donations to her up? One of the reasons she had such a successful launch too was there's no major national races going on now. As we get closer to November there will be the presidential race, the national Senate race and the house. Most national donors are gonna put Katie's Senate race at a much lower priority while all the in state organizations and donors who will be backing Lee will still have a vested interest in the race and it will be one of there top priorities.

Honestly I think this race will be over after the March Primary.  With three major Democratic candidates I think it's likely a Republican finishes in the top 2.

I think the chances of this are extremely slim. Since the top-two system was implemented, only once has there been a gubernatorial or senatorial election with multiple serious Democratic candidates where the general election did not involve two Democrats: that was the 2018 gubernatorial election, where John Cox poured a lot of money into his campaign and was aided by a Newsom campaign anxious to keep Antonio Villaraigosa out of the general election.

It should be obvious that there will be no similar Republican candidate this time. If a deep-pocketed Republican were to try to launch a longshot bid for statewide office, the obvious thing to do would be to try to seek the governorship in 2026. In any case, there's no indication that any such Republican will try to set money on fire in that way. The Republican vote in California should do what it always does in these situations, which is splinter a hundred different ways among a hundred also-ran candidates, none of whom are running real campaigns.
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« Reply #757 on: May 30, 2023, 11:03:44 AM »


I mean does she really though? She had a great launch yes with donors from across the country but when people from outside Cali learn about Lee especially if a national figure like Bernie endorses her, will as many people keep there donations to her up? One of the reasons she had such a successful launch too was there's no major national races going on now. As we get closer to November there will be the presidential race, the national Senate race and the house. Most national donors are gonna put Katie's Senate race at a much lower priority while all the in state organizations and donors who will be backing Lee will still have a vested interest in the race and it will be one of there top priorities.

Honestly I think this race will be over after the March Primary.  With three major Democratic candidates I think it's likely a Republican finishes in the top 2.

I think the chances of this are extremely slim. Since the top-two system was implemented, only once has there been a gubernatorial or senatorial election with multiple serious Democratic candidates where the general election did not involve two Democrats: that was the 2018 gubernatorial election, where John Cox poured a lot of money into his campaign and was aided by a Newsom campaign anxious to keep Antonio Villaraigosa out of the general election.

It should be obvious that there will be no similar Republican candidate this time. If a deep-pocketed Republican were to try to launch a longshot bid for statewide office, the obvious thing to do would be to try to seek the governorship in 2026. In any case, there's no indication that any such Republican will try to set money on fire in that way. The Republican vote in California should do what it always does in these situations, which is splinter a hundred different ways among a hundred also-ran candidates, none of whom are running real campaigns.
But didn't all D vs D runoffs only include two serious Democrats? Harris and Sanchez in 2016. Feinstein and de Leon in 2018. Superintendent of Public Instruction 2018 with Thurmond and Tuck.
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Canis
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« Reply #758 on: May 30, 2023, 01:09:21 PM »
« Edited: May 30, 2023, 01:23:52 PM by Canis »


I mean does she really though? She had a great launch yes with donors from across the country but when people from outside Cali learn about Lee especially if a national figure like Bernie endorses her, will as many people keep there donations to her up? One of the reasons she had such a successful launch too was there's no major national races going on now. As we get closer to November there will be the presidential race, the national Senate race and the house. Most national donors are gonna put Katie's Senate race at a much lower priority while all the in state organizations and donors who will be backing Lee will still have a vested interest in the race and it will be one of there top priorities.

Honestly I think this race will be over after the March Primary.  With three major Democratic candidates I think it's likely a Republican finishes in the top 2.

I think the chances of this are extremely slim. Since the top-two system was implemented, only once has there been a gubernatorial or senatorial election with multiple serious Democratic candidates where the general election did not involve two Democrats: that was the 2018 gubernatorial election, where John Cox poured a lot of money into his campaign and was aided by a Newsom campaign anxious to keep Antonio Villaraigosa out of the general election.

It should be obvious that there will be no similar Republican candidate this time. If a deep-pocketed Republican were to try to launch a longshot bid for statewide office, the obvious thing to do would be to try to seek the governorship in 2026. In any case, there's no indication that any such Republican will try to set money on fire in that way. The Republican vote in California should do what it always does in these situations, which is splinter a hundred different ways among a hundred also-ran candidates, none of whom are running real campaigns.
But didn't all D vs D runoffs only include two serious Democrats? Harris and Sanchez in 2016. Feinstein and de Leon in 2018. Superintendent of Public Instruction 2018 with Thurmond and Tuck.
LG  2018 had 3 serious Dems and a serious lefty independent candidate. Also your wrong about superintendent 2018 there were 3 Dems running and tuck despite running as a Dem was the defacto republican and had support from the state party who didn't field a candidate because they knew they had a better chance backing a conservative pro charter Dem then they would have if they ran there own candidate which the 2022 results certainly proved correct.
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« Reply #759 on: May 30, 2023, 02:07:13 PM »

What if the CAGOP endorses a candidate? Will Republicans unite?
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #760 on: June 01, 2023, 12:30:52 PM »


Yeah that's pretty much the case. Porter is leading right now due to name rec but she doesn't have a machine that will bring people out to vote for her knock doors make phone calls etc. Porters support is soft rn and from low info voters who are less likely to turnout or spread the word and encourage others to vote for her. Lee will have plenty of grassroots support and her support will be more solid and more likely to be mainted and expanded. Essentially Lee has more room to grow and larger engine to keep her in the race and her fundraising will be more reliable since she has more organizations and elected officials backing her and you need a lot of money and a consistent stream of if to compete in a state as big as Cali

But that's the thing, Porter has a huge online fundraising network, she really does not need to worry about local officials throwing her a $1,000 a plate fundraisers. Same with Schiff.  Honestly the reason I think Lee is likely to finish behind Schiff and Porter in the primary is I don't think she can fundraise with them.


I mean does she really though? She had a great launch yes with donors from across the country but when people from outside Cali learn about Lee especially if a national figure like Bernie endorses her, will as many people keep there donations to her up? One of the reasons she had such a successful launch too was there's no major national races going on now. As we get closer to November there will be the presidential race, the national Senate race and the house. Most national donors are gonna put Katie's Senate race at a much lower priority while all the in state organizations and donors who will be backing Lee will still have a vested interest in the race and it will be one of there top priorities.

I think I agree that people are maybe discounting Porter a little too heavily, but I really have no idea how she’s gonna appeal to nonwhite voters and haven’t got a good answer on that yet. Black donors and interest groups are gonna back Lee, and honestly labor is very likely too as well given the subtle nuances between her and Porter and her longer record (and that unions are filled with nonwhite democrat voters in California).

My question the whole time is who specifically is going to back Katie? And I still haven’t heard much of an answer to that. My bougie aunts in Irvine and Marin, sure. But wealthy white ladies have a lot less punch than they used to, and may end up voting for Lee if she becomes the cool and trendy candidate anyway.

Also, we just had the state convention by my house and it was a Barbara Lee love fest. The activist base is behind her. The establishment is behind Schiff. So, I’m looking out for actually strategy from the Porter campaign because they have a lot tougher task than it appears. For example, how is she gonna answer inevitable questions about why she and not a Black lady should be elected given their similar records? And she can’t go all “she’s old” because that never plays well in a primary full of elderly voters.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #761 on: June 01, 2023, 01:25:01 PM »

 Former Los Angeles Dodgers icon Steve Garvey is considering running for the open U.S. Senate seat in California as a Republican, ...

(Paywalled)

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-06-01/former-los-angeles-dodger-steve-garvey-senate-feinstein-porter-schiff-lee-early
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« Reply #762 on: June 01, 2023, 01:37:55 PM »

Would Schiff and/or Porter do better in the Bay Area than the Emerald Coast against Lee?
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #763 on: June 01, 2023, 02:09:11 PM »
« Edited: June 01, 2023, 03:41:55 PM by Хahar 🤔 »

I imagine that few people on this forum are old enough to remember Steve Garvey and most aren't big enough baseball fans to really know him, so I'll try to summarize.

45 years ago, the Dodgers were one of the best teams in baseball and certainly the most popular team in baseball and Steve Garvey was the undisputed face of the team. He liked the media and the media liked him: the way he was portrayed at the time was effusive. In an age when baseball players were growing out their hair and rebelling against management, Garvey was the clean-cut all-American boy. If at the time you had suggested to people that he would follow in Ronald Reagan's footsteps and go into Republican politics, nobody would have questioned it.

Things started coming apart in the mid-'80s as his playing career wound down. In 1981, he and his wife separated. They would divorce two years later. This led to public revelations that all through his career he had constantly been committing adultery. Later in the decade, while he was engaged to another woman, two other women bore children that he had fathered. Maybe this wouldn't have mattered in general, but the effect on a player who had cultivated the sort of reputation that Garvey had was devastating. It had been expected that he would have all sorts of business opportunities after baseball, but those never materialized. At one point in his career he was seen as a sure Hall of Famer, but in fact he never came close in Hall of Fame voting.

Judging from this article, it sounds as though he's just about made up his mind already. It would make sense that he would miss the limelight, and his alternative lifestyle clearly should not bother contemporary Republicans. Of course he has no chance of winning, but he's got a famous enough name that he wouldn't have to spend an unfathomable sum on paid media just to get his name out there in the way that other Republican would. His name recognition along voters under 45 would be very low, but that's less important for a Republican, anyway. If he really wanted to get to a runoff so that he could lose by thirty points, I could see him managing that, which is more than I could say of any other potential Republican.
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Canis
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« Reply #764 on: June 01, 2023, 03:12:05 PM »
« Edited: June 01, 2023, 03:16:44 PM by Canis »


Yeah that's pretty much the case. Porter is leading right now due to name rec but she doesn't have a machine that will bring people out to vote for her knock doors make phone calls etc. Porters support is soft rn and from low info voters who are less likely to turnout or spread the word and encourage others to vote for her. Lee will have plenty of grassroots support and her support will be more solid and more likely to be mainted and expanded. Essentially Lee has more room to grow and larger engine to keep her in the race and her fundraising will be more reliable since she has more organizations and elected officials backing her and you need a lot of money and a consistent stream of if to compete in a state as big as Cali

But that's the thing, Porter has a huge online fundraising network, she really does not need to worry about local officials throwing her a $1,000 a plate fundraisers. Same with Schiff.  Honestly the reason I think Lee is likely to finish behind Schiff and Porter in the primary is I don't think she can fundraise with them.


I mean does she really though? She had a great launch yes with donors from across the country but when people from outside Cali learn about Lee especially if a national figure like Bernie endorses her, will as many people keep there donations to her up? One of the reasons she had such a successful launch too was there's no major national races going on now. As we get closer to November there will be the presidential race, the national Senate race and the house. Most national donors are gonna put Katie's Senate race at a much lower priority while all the in state organizations and donors who will be backing Lee will still have a vested interest in the race and it will be one of there top priorities.

I think I agree that people are maybe discounting Porter a little too heavily, but I really have no idea how she’s gonna appeal to nonwhite voters and haven’t got a good answer on that yet. Black donors and interest groups are gonna back Lee, and honestly labor is very likely too as well given the subtle nuances between her and Porter and her longer record (and that unions are filled with nonwhite democrat voters in California).

My question the whole time is who specifically is going to back Katie? And I still haven’t heard much of an answer to that. My bougie aunts in Irvine and Marin, sure. But wealthy white ladies have a lot less punch than they used to, and may end up voting for Lee if she becomes the cool and trendy candidate anyway.

Also, we just had the state convention by my house and it was a Barbara Lee love fest. The activist base is behind her. The establishment is behind Schiff. So, I’m looking out for actually strategy from the Porter campaign because they have a lot tougher task than it appears. For example, how is she gonna answer inevitable questions about why she and not a Black lady should be elected given their similar records? And she can’t go all “she’s old” because that never plays well in a primary full of elderly voters.
I was there and your description of it was pretty accurate like I said earlier in the thread
Quote
At the state convention this weekend Porter had almost no support I counted literally 3 volunteers the entire weekend. Lee and Schiff had several competing events and Lees had more people slightly in each one.
Garveys is a big name, but he's faded from relevance for quite a while. He may have enough money to make it to the General, it'll be interesting to see what kind of campaign he runs, he may end up being California's, Hershel Walker.  But he may also end up dividing the Republican vote between him and early and the other minor candidates who hop in if he fails to get the state party to back him. I think if he wants to make the general though he'll have to burn a significant amount of his own money and its just a question of if he'd wanna do that. If he does make the general hed certainly be crushed by Porter Lee or Schiff no question. 
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #765 on: June 01, 2023, 03:39:49 PM »


This almost had me in tears.

Good primer on Garvey. Had no idea who he was. (Go Giants!)
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Zedonathin2020
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« Reply #766 on: June 12, 2023, 09:57:57 AM »

New Poll: Schiff 15%, Porter 14%, Lee 6%.

47% Undecided


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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #767 on: June 15, 2023, 07:59:09 AM »

I think it's clear Barbara Lee is suffering poor name regonition( she didn't have the same media presence like Schiff and Porter during the trump era) as well as voters being concerned about her age given what's going on with Feinstein.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #768 on: June 15, 2023, 09:04:12 AM »

I think it's clear Barbara Lee is suffering poor name regonition( she didn't have the same media presence like Schiff and Porter during the trump era) as well as voters being concerned about her age given what's going on with Feinstein.

Yup, that's a fairly accurate observation. Perhaps she'd so herself a favor and pledge just to serve a single 6-year terms. Whether that's what people looking out for is another question though.

The R-candidates even more suffer from low name ID. There's a small GOP bench anyway and the few better known ones are staying out because nobody wants to end up as sacraficial lamb or not even advance to the GE.
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« Reply #769 on: June 15, 2023, 09:36:01 AM »

Looks like this potential self-funder is getting in as a Democrat, her pollster is Lake Research which has a middling reputation at best and is the firm that tends to get lower-tier Democratic candidates especially in statewide races.

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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #770 on: June 15, 2023, 02:19:19 PM »

Looks like this potential self-funder is getting in as a Democrat, her pollster is Lake Research which has a middling reputation at best and is the firm that tends to get lower-tier Democratic candidates especially in statewide races.



why
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #771 on: June 15, 2023, 04:41:21 PM »

Looks like this potential self-funder is getting in as a Democrat, her pollster is Lake Research which has a middling reputation at best and is the firm that tends to get lower-tier Democratic candidates especially in statewide races.



why

Who?
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« Reply #772 on: June 15, 2023, 11:07:07 PM »

I think it's clear Barbara Lee is suffering poor name regonition( she didn't have the same media presence like Schiff and Porter during the trump era) as well as voters being concerned about her age given what's going on with Feinstein.

Yup, that's a fairly accurate observation. Perhaps she'd so herself a favor and pledge just to serve a single 6-year terms. Whether that's what people looking out for is another question though.

The R-candidates even more suffer from low name ID. There's a small GOP bench anyway and the few better known ones are staying out because nobody wants to end up as sacraficial lamb or not even advance to the GE.

The problem with a one term pledge, at least from my perspective, is that it's a de facto admission that you're denying your constituents the benefits that come with seniority, which is a huge part of effectiveness in Congress. I like Barbara Lee, but Katie Porter would have a virtually identical voting record with a potential for decades more seniority. If I were a California voter, I would take that into account.
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« Reply #773 on: June 18, 2023, 10:30:36 AM »

New Poll: Schiff 15%, Porter 14%, Lee 6%.

47% Undecided


Lee being only 3% off from being the fourth-placed Democrat must be incredibly embarrassing for her.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #774 on: June 18, 2023, 04:41:51 PM »

Lee being only 3% off from being the fourth-placed Democrat must be incredibly embarrassing for her.

This is a poll a full year out from the election where the top-placed candidate is at 15%. You really don't need to try to wring meaning out of this. It's okay to just let it be.
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