California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)
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  California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)
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Author Topic: California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)  (Read 61935 times)
coloradocowboi
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« Reply #575 on: March 12, 2023, 11:16:05 AM »

If against another democrat, Lee gets most the R votes. She isn't often on MSNBC talking trash about Trump like the rest of them, she's more populist and has that Bernie-Trump appeal. R voters aren't ideological, they vote based on vibes.

Generally speaking, Democrats' economic agenda is a lot more popular than their social issues, and Lee is a lot more of a socialist than a social justice warrior. I also think that the historicity of her candidacy will speak to some Republicans in CA for sure, especially if it's a convenient excuse not to vote for the loathsome Adam Schiff. I don't know if Lee would be favored against Porter to the same extent as she would against Schiff though. Given Porter's shifting to the right, I actually think she would have an advantage with GOP voters over Lee. On the other hand though, I think Lee performs better with center-left, Dem "establishment" voters against Porter than Schiff, and there are a lot more of those here than Republicans sadly
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #576 on: March 13, 2023, 03:18:49 AM »

If against another democrat, Lee gets most the R votes. She isn't often on MSNBC talking trash about Trump like the rest of them, she's more populist and has that Bernie-Trump appeal. R voters aren't ideological, they vote based on vibes.

Generally speaking, Democrats' economic agenda is a lot more popular than their social issues, and Lee is a lot more of a socialist than a social justice warrior. I also think that the historicity of her candidacy will speak to some Republicans in CA for sure, especially if it's a convenient excuse not to vote for the loathsome Adam Schiff. I don't know if Lee would be favored against Porter to the same extent as she would against Schiff though. Given Porter's shifting to the right, I actually think she would have an advantage with GOP voters over Lee. On the other hand though, I think Lee performs better with center-left, Dem "establishment" voters against Porter than Schiff, and there are a lot more of those here than Republicans sadly
While Lee wouldn't do AS well with Republican voters against Porter as she would against Schiff (any CA Democrat apart from Pelosi would win Rs against Schiff), she would still beat Porter with them.
Lee isn't as much of a woke-type as Porter, and Porter radiates elite wine mom energy like her inspiration Liz Warren does. Porter is also often on cable news attacking Trump which would put a lot of Rs off voting for her.
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Spectator
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« Reply #577 on: March 13, 2023, 05:34:43 AM »

I’m surprised there isn’t more concern about a Republicans top-2 shutout here. It’s going to be concurrent with the Republican presidential primary in the state, and there’s already 3 big name Dems running.
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Snow Belt Republican
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« Reply #578 on: March 13, 2023, 05:55:09 AM »

Still wondering if any GOP people have announced a run yet. Hopefully not another Mark Meuser (dude doesn't even have a photo on wiki). Hopefully none of our House Rs (Issa, Valadao, Kim, Steel, Duarte) run as they're in super valuable seats to hold.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #579 on: March 13, 2023, 06:18:37 AM »

With Adam Schiff in the race no R has a chance and McCarthy saying Schiff should not be Senator makes no difference in CA RS are voting for Schiff over Porter
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #580 on: March 13, 2023, 07:29:01 AM »

I’m surprised there isn’t more concern about a Republicans top-2 shutout here. It’s going to be concurrent with the Republican presidential primary in the state, and there’s already 3 big name Dems running.

There isn’t even one semi-competent Republican candidate.  Plus, three “name” Democrats isn’t the sort of large field that generally led to a shutout (absent a decidedly flawed candidate or two).  Generally shutouts required at least two non-some dude Republican candidates who were at least elected officials.  And they tended to be in districts where Democrats always badly underperform (even by the usual standards) in the all Party primary due to poor Hispanic turnout compared to the GE.

- Tony Strickland vs. Steve Knight (very weak Dem field of some dudes as well)

- Gary Miller vs. Bob Dutton (also multiple credible Democrats running in a seat where Democratic turnout tends to be far lower in the primary)

- The close call in Aguillar’s seat two years after the Miller shutout (the usual turnout issues, three well-known Democrats in a scorched earth primary slug fest and a fourth over-performing Dem some dude vs. two Republicans who flew under the radar while the Dems ripped each other apart)

- The close call in Harder’s seat in 2018 (tons of Dems with low name recognition vs. Jeff Denham and Ted Howze [Trumpist city councilman from Turlock]), etc.

The California Senate race doesn’t really fit the bill although if any of Lee, Schiff, or Porter had Hispanics as a core part of their base (which doesn’t seem to be the case atm), I’d say they’d be likely to underperform in the all-party primary relative to what they’d get in the runoff whether they get a runoff slot or not. 
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No War, but the War on Christmas
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« Reply #581 on: March 25, 2023, 04:55:33 PM »

I've decided to drop my endorsement of Katie Porter after further reflection and research into past questions about her naivety, which is me wanting to assume the best, regarding right-wing Israeli groups and without any response to the criticism she received for her most recent trip.

I still like Katie and I won't necessarily be rooting agains her but I won't be making any further donations to her campaign. I'm not sure if I'll switch to Barbara Lee officially but I'm certainly keeping an eye on how the race develops and fwiw it's a shame that I don't believe any debates are scheduled.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #582 on: March 26, 2023, 12:56:11 AM »



Khanna looks like he'll announce he's running today.
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #583 on: March 26, 2023, 04:19:00 AM »


Khanna looks like he'll announce he's running today.
Idk. Imo his announcement is that he's not running and he's endorsing Lee.
As I've said, if he does get in, all he needs to do is get in the top 2, cause he would beat any other Democrat (or republican) in a runoff.
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Zedonathin2020
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« Reply #584 on: March 26, 2023, 08:42:38 AM »


Khanna looks like he'll announce he's running today.
Idk. Imo his announcement is that he's not running and he's endorsing Lee.
As I've said, if he does get in, all he needs to do is get in the top 2, cause he would beat any other Democrat (or republican) in a runoff.

And you ended up being right

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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #585 on: March 26, 2023, 01:00:30 PM »

Khanna looks like he'll announce he's running today.

I wish people would pay attention to the posts I make in this thread, all of which have been correct!

Don't expect Khanna to endorse anyone. Expect him to get in lol. His combination of consistently peculiar positions, attraction to the limelight, and silicon valley backers will make the possibility to tempting to resist - even though not many people actually like him.

This would make sense if not for anything that's happened since last November. Khanna has been directly quoted as saying that "my biggest factor will be looking at what Barbara Lee does." The obvious conclusion is the he plans to support Barbara Lee.

Do you really trust Khanna? I don't believe anything he does until he does it. The dude is to paradoxically quixotic. I mean this is the guy with this internet meme that seemingly keeps appearing every time he opens his mouth:

My position is that Ro Khanna is a rational actor who will not contest this election because the statements that he has made would not be helpful if he were running for this office and would be very helpful if he wanted support for a different office in a future election. Your position is that Ro Khanna is an irrational actor who will contest this election because he's wacky. I'm comfortable with my position here.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #586 on: April 06, 2023, 01:01:37 PM »



This is going to be spendy race.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #587 on: April 06, 2023, 01:09:07 PM »

If anyone is vying for higher political office in CA outside of Schiff and Porter, it would strategically make the most sense to back Lee; being in that camp provides you the opportunity for insider access into the state's political infrastructure and it's highly likely that Lee will only serve one-two terms, as opposed to the others who may be lifers.
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prag_prog
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« Reply #588 on: April 10, 2023, 11:21:29 AM »

This is one of the main reasons I don't want Lee. She will be 78 by the time her Senate term starts. Why go for Lee and risk situations like this when you have a younger alternative who will vote the same as Lee 99%+ of the time ?

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1645428932835942402
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #589 on: April 10, 2023, 01:19:14 PM »

Schiff is gonna win anyways he wants in on Filibuster proof Trifecta in the Senate
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prag_prog
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« Reply #590 on: April 10, 2023, 05:07:43 PM »

Why on earth can't Feinstein just resign when she is like 90 and her current health condition isn't good ?
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Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
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« Reply #591 on: April 10, 2023, 05:21:11 PM »

Why on earth can't Feinstein just resign when she is like 90 and her current health condition isn't good ?

If Feinstein would resign then Newsom will have appointed both California senators, the Attorney General, and the Secretary of State. That’s a lot of control/power for one person
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prag_prog
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« Reply #592 on: April 10, 2023, 05:49:32 PM »

Why on earth can't Feinstein just resign when she is like 90 and her current health condition isn't good ?

If Feinstein would resign then Newsom will have appointed both California senators, the Attorney General, and the Secretary of State. That’s a lot of control/power for one person
I seriously don't care tbh...Newsom surely can find someone that he can appoint temporarily for 1 1/2 year. Feinstein's absence is holding up lot of judges appointments and after 2024, it might take a long time for Dems to even get an opportunity to appoint any new liberal judges
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #593 on: April 10, 2023, 06:41:29 PM »

Why on earth can't Feinstein just resign when she is like 90 and her current health condition isn't good ?

If Feinstein would resign then Newsom will have appointed both California senators, the Attorney General, and the Secretary of State. That’s a lot of control/power for one person
I seriously don't care tbh...Newsom surely can find someone that he can appoint temporarily for 1 1/2 year. Feinstein's absence is holding up lot of judges appointments and after 2024, it might take a long time for Dems to even get an opportunity to appoint any new liberal judges

Maybe Jerry Brown will finally get to be Senator of California Tongue
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
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« Reply #594 on: April 10, 2023, 08:43:25 PM »

Barbara Lee stands for me.
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Holmes
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« Reply #595 on: April 10, 2023, 09:10:58 PM »

This is one of the main reasons I don't want Lee. She will be 78 by the time her Senate term starts. Why go for Lee and risk situations like this when you have a younger alternative who will vote the same as Lee 99%+ of the time ?

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1645428932835942402

Because I want a proven left-wing voice from the Bay Area.
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Sestak
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« Reply #596 on: April 10, 2023, 10:31:38 PM »

I seriously don't care tbh...Newsom surely can find someone that he can appoint temporarily for 1 1/2 year.

Don't know if Newsom would do that, though. Having every major position in the state filled by someone who owes their job to him is his dream outcome. Since he has already said he'd appoint a black woman to this seat, quite possible he'd elevate Lee, who would then be running for reelection.

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prag_prog
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« Reply #597 on: April 11, 2023, 11:28:19 AM »
« Edited: April 11, 2023, 11:37:13 AM by prag_prog »





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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #598 on: April 11, 2023, 11:54:26 AM »

It's even easier than that. Replace her in the Judiciary Committee with a healthier senator.
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Zedonathin2020
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« Reply #599 on: April 11, 2023, 12:39:44 PM »

This is one of the main reasons I don't want Lee. She will be 78 by the time her Senate term starts. Why go for Lee and risk situations like this when you have a younger alternative who will vote the same as Lee 99%+ of the time ?

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1645428932835942402

Because I want a proven left-wing voice from the Bay Area.

Who cares about the Bay Area? Do we really want to deal with another Feinstein situation in a couple of years who even if she doesn't end up like DiFi will probably just serve out a single term, when we could easily elect a much younger progressive who could shape the future of the Democratic Party for years to come, and could even be a contender for the Presidency post-Biden?
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