California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Zedonathin2020]

Every serious Democratic candidate supports court packing. Does it even matter who wins?

Court packing isn't going to happen and Dems shouldn't even waste any focus on the issue.

If anything talking about Court Packing would be a real pain in the fanny for Democrats.

[I’m not Stu]

Will a Karen Bass endorsement have an impact on who wins Los Angeles?

[All Along The Watchtower]

Important to note that Schiff chaired the House Intelligence Committee. Presumably Pelos…excuse me, his plan is to one day chair its Senate counterpart—much like Feinstein had previously.

Gotta ensure that the MIC and NatSec ”community” continue to have powerful friends in the Democratic Party, after all.

[I’m not Stu]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1661392077777944576

Slightly misleading. Those numbers are after "positive" candidate biographies were presented. Here are the numbers prior to that info:

Early - 27%
Porter - 24%
Schiff - 21%
Lee - 11% (!!!)
Other/undecided - 17%

Those other numbers, coupled with the fact that this is a Lee internal, lead me to believe that the campaign is pretty desperate to spin this result as a positive, despite the fact that even a 9 point swing doesn't even get her out of 4th place.

Then again, this is just one poll.

The real argument to be made is that Schiff and Porter are at their ceilings whereas Lee has actual room to gain. A candidate's vote share not moving after bios is genuinely a very bad sign, as the post-bio vote tends to be the most predictive of the actual final outcome (this is all relative though, polls are of course only snapshots in time).

This here is a UC Berkeley poll, not a Barbara Lee internal

https://twitter.com/vanceulrich/status/1661763830647758849

Most interesting crosstabs to me—

18-39 YO: 19% KP, 9% Schiff, 12% Lee
Latinos: 21% KP, 9% Schiff, 10% Lee

Thats a recipe for Porter to do well in SoCal.

Orange County too?

[TML]

A plurality wants DiFi to step down early.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1661703223084818433

I wonder if Nancy Pelosi thinks 52% of California Democrats are misogynists.

She isn’t making that statement out of personal beliefs; she’s using it as a cover for Feinstein to stay on in order to increase the chances of her preferred candidate (Schiff) winning the upcoming election.

Yeah but one would have to imply the other, right? She would never say the quiet part loud is what I'm saying.

I know she would not publicly state what appear to be her true intentions; if the misogyny card is not available, she could easily find other cards to play (for example, she could say "Feinstein was duly elected to serve a full term, so let her serve out her term" or "Feinstein is a seasoned political veteran, so let her serve out her term," among other things).

[I’m not Stu]

I doubt Feinstein survives the full term.

[President Johnson]

I doubt Feinstein survives the full term.

Is this just a general assumption or has there been a recent update on her health? I haven't seen much lately.

Anyway, I agree with 52% of Democrats saying she should step down. Newsom would be well advised to appoint a placeholder.

[I’m not Stu]

I doubt Feinstein survives the full term.

Is this just a general assumption or has there been a recent update on her health? I haven't seen much lately.

Anyway, I agree with 52% of Democrats saying she should step down. Newsom would be well advised to appoint a placeholder.

Recent update.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I doubt Feinstein survives the full term.

Is this just a general assumption or has there been a recent update on her health? I haven't seen much lately.

Anyway, I agree with 52% of Democrats saying she should step down. Newsom would be well advised to appoint a placeholder.

Recent update.

Senator Winfrey is inevitable

[Хahar 🤔]

The important thing about this UC Berkeley poll where Katie Porter leads the Democratic field at 17% is that 10% chose "Someone else" and 32% chose "Undecided". This indicates what is obvious to most thinking people here, which is that voters do not have strong preferences because they have not been thinking about this election.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The WGA strike had a big Star Wars themed event and Lee and Schiff showed up

https://twitter.com/barbaraleeforca/status/1662303281585217536?s=46&t=fshjef...

https://twitter.com/adamschiff/status/1659710942702174208?s=46&t=fshjefG8I94...

It doesn’t look like Porter attended but she has made appearances at the picket lines before

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1661392077777944576

Slightly misleading. Those numbers are after "positive" candidate biographies were presented. Here are the numbers prior to that info:

Early - 27%
Porter - 24%
Schiff - 21%
Lee - 11% (!!!)
Other/undecided - 17%

Those other numbers, coupled with the fact that this is a Lee internal, lead me to believe that the campaign is pretty desperate to spin this result as a positive, despite the fact that even a 9 point swing doesn't even get her out of 4th place.

Then again, this is just one poll.

The real argument to be made is that Schiff and Porter are at their ceilings whereas Lee has actual room to gain. A candidate's vote share not moving after bios is genuinely a very bad sign, as the post-bio vote tends to be the most predictive of the actual final outcome (this is all relative though, polls are of course only snapshots in time).

This here is a UC Berkeley poll, not a Barbara Lee internal

https://twitter.com/vanceulrich/status/1661763830647758849

Most interesting crosstabs to me—

18-39 YO: 19% KP, 9% Schiff, 12% Lee
Latinos: 21% KP, 9% Schiff, 10% Lee

Thats a recipe for Porter to do well in SoCal.

Orange County too?

It's a runoff it doesn't matter about polls yet until we get to 2024

[I’m not Stu]

Isn't Lee a Kevin de Leon 2018 voter?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Runoff if Barbara just like Shawn Wilson in LA and Warnock and Ossoff won the GA, Runoffs fav Ds the only Runoff Rs won was in LA in 2014 in a Midterm REPANDEMIC rePandemic when Mary Landeieu lost to Cassidy if she ran in this Midterms Environment she would have won that's the only Runoff Rs won

That's why I have Shawn Wilson and he will make the Runoff Lean D in LA and Presley and Beshesr are 3 not 10 pts down in MS and KY

It won't be an R making the runoff because the Ds are gonna put 2 Da in the Nov ballot it's a Joe Biden Prez Primary in March 24

Stop worrying about polls a yr before an Eday, just like the 24 Prez polls Users are so worried about Biden Approvals and we won the 303 map with 4% unemployment with Boden Approvals in 22 and the GCB is +5 D according to Morning Consult and Change Research not R hack polls

Alsobrooks shouldn't be underestimated either Karen Bass came back from double digits down in CA to Rick Caruso, he won the primary overwhelmingly

That's why I have FL as wave insurance Obama and Biden wasn't fav to win FL in 2008/12 when McCain and Romney won FL in the primary that's what a blue wave is

DeSantis going down too fast for FL to be Safe R anymore that's why Deegan won

[Canis]

At the state convention this weekend Porter had almost no support I counted litterally 3 volunteers the entire weekend. Lee and Schiff had several competing events and Lees had more people slightly in each one. This highlights the major problem for Porter. She has no institutional support. All the progressive party officials are behind Lee as well as most of the African American leadership. And Schiff pretty much has all the establishment and moderate support behind him. I talked with one of Porters volunteers at the convention and his argument for Porter was pretty weak and rooted in ageism about Lee, he kept implying she was only capable of serving one term.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barb Lee is going to the Runoff and qi. It's a Runoff with Schiff or Porter

[I’m not Stu]

Will heavily white Humboldt and Mendocino be a 2018 redux by voting against the white candidate?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Porter is the fav at the moment

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

At the state convention this weekend Porter had almost no support I counted litterally 3 volunteers the entire weekend. Lee and Schiff had several competing events and Lees had more people slightly in each one. This highlights the major problem for Porter. She has no institutional support. All the progressive party officials are behind Lee as well as most of the African American leadership. And Schiff pretty much has all the establishment and moderate support behind him. I talked with one of Porters volunteers at the convention and his argument for Porter was pretty weak and rooted in ageism about Lee, he kept implying she was only capable of serving one term.

Is he wrong though?

[Zedonathin2020]

At the state convention this weekend Porter had almost no support I counted litterally 3 volunteers the entire weekend. Lee and Schiff had several competing events and Lees had more people slightly in each one. This highlights the major problem for Porter. She has no institutional support. All the progressive party officials are behind Lee as well as most of the African American leadership. And Schiff pretty much has all the establishment and moderate support behind him. I talked with one of Porters volunteers at the convention and his argument for Porter was pretty weak and rooted in ageism about Lee, he kept implying she was only capable of serving one term.

Is he wrong though?

Well no, but what's the point of electing what is essentially a one term rental for a younger progressive in 2030 when we could just go ahead and skip to the point?

[Minnesota Mike]

At the state convention this weekend Porter had almost no support I counted litterally 3 volunteers the entire weekend. Lee and Schiff had several competing events and Lees had more people slightly in each one. This highlights the major problem for Porter. She has no institutional support. All the progressive party officials are behind Lee as well as most of the African American leadership. And Schiff pretty much has all the establishment and moderate support behind him. I talked with one of Porters volunteers at the convention and his argument for Porter was pretty weak and rooted in ageism about Lee, he kept implying she was only capable of serving one term.

Correct me if I'm wrong but does institutional support really matter that much in California? In a state that big wouldn't money/name recognition (often same thing) matter more and doesn't Porter have both?

[Sol]

It's interesting--I wonder if Porter would be in a much better place in this race if the third candidate was a Bay Area machine candidate without the leftist bonafides which Lee has. If you're a died-in-the-wool progressive or socialist it's hard to beat Lee's record; I suspect Porter would be getting a lot more buzz from the leftwing online.

At the state convention this weekend Porter had almost no support I counted litterally 3 volunteers the entire weekend. Lee and Schiff had several competing events and Lees had more people slightly in each one. This highlights the major problem for Porter. She has no institutional support. All the progressive party officials are behind Lee as well as most of the African American leadership. And Schiff pretty much has all the establishment and moderate support behind him. I talked with one of Porters volunteers at the convention and his argument for Porter was pretty weak and rooted in ageism about Lee, he kept implying she was only capable of serving one term.

Correct me if I'm wrong but does institutional support really matter that much in California? In a state that big wouldn't money/name recognition (often same thing) matter more and doesn't Porter have both?

My understanding is that, at least according to CA people, it cuts the other way--the state is so big and demanding politically that the only people with enough resources are the leaders of political machines.

Of course, there hasn't really been a big and well-funded campaign by a non-establishment statewide Democrat (to my knowledge), so both Schiff and Porter are interesting test cases in this respect.

[Canis]

At the state convention this weekend Porter had almost no support I counted litterally 3 volunteers the entire weekend. Lee and Schiff had several competing events and Lees had more people slightly in each one. This highlights the major problem for Porter. She has no institutional support. All the progressive party officials are behind Lee as well as most of the African American leadership. And Schiff pretty much has all the establishment and moderate support behind him. I talked with one of Porters volunteers at the convention and his argument for Porter was pretty weak and rooted in ageism about Lee, he kept implying she was only capable of serving one term.

Is he wrong though?

It's unclear, she'd be 83 as the end of her first term but older senators have run for reelection. The main issue with the argument is it's pretty weak to just call your opponent old with no argument for why your candidate is better besides age. Barbra Lee is more progressive then Porter on some pretty important issues like israel and the salt tax  and more accomplished when you compare there careers overall it's pretty clear.

It's interesting--I wonder if Porter would be in a much better place in this race if the third candidate was a Bay Area machine candidate without the leftist bonafides which Lee has. If you're a died-in-the-wool progressive or socialist it's hard to beat Lee's record; I suspect Porter would be getting a lot more buzz from the leftwing online.

At the state convention this weekend Porter had almost no support I counted litterally 3 volunteers the entire weekend. Lee and Schiff had several competing events and Lees had more people slightly in each one. This highlights the major problem for Porter. She has no institutional support. All the progressive party officials are behind Lee as well as most of the African American leadership. And Schiff pretty much has all the establishment and moderate support behind him. I talked with one of Porters volunteers at the convention and his argument for Porter was pretty weak and rooted in ageism about Lee, he kept implying she was only capable of serving one term.

Correct me if I'm wrong but does institutional support really matter that much in California? In a state that big wouldn't money/name recognition (often same thing) matter more and doesn't Porter have both?

My understanding is that, at least according to CA people, it cuts the other way--the state is so big and demanding politically that the only people with enough resources are the leaders of political machines.

Of course, there hasn't really been a big and well-funded campaign by a non-establishment statewide Democrat (to my knowledge), so both Schiff and Porter are interesting test cases in this respect.

   

At the state convention this weekend Porter had almost no support I counted litterally 3 volunteers the entire weekend. Lee and Schiff had several competing events and Lees had more people slightly in each one. This highlights the major problem for Porter. She has no institutional support. All the progressive party officials are behind Lee as well as most of the African American leadership. And Schiff pretty much has all the establishment and moderate support behind him. I talked with one of Porters volunteers at the convention and his argument for Porter was pretty weak and rooted in ageism about Lee, he kept implying she was only capable of serving one term.

Correct me if I'm wrong but does institutional support really matter that much in California? In a state that big wouldn't money/name recognition (often same thing) matter more and doesn't Porter have both?

Yeah that's pretty much the case. Porter is leading right now due to name rec but she doesn't have a machine that will bring people out to vote for her knock doors make phone calls etc. Porters support is soft rn and from low info voters who are less likely to turnout or spread the word and encourage others to vote for her. Lee will have plenty of grassroots support and her support will be more solid and more likely to be mainted and expanded. Essentially Lee has more room to grow and larger engine to keep her in the race and her fundraising will be more reliable since she has more organizations and elected officials backing her and you need a lot of money and a consistent stream of if to compete in a state as big as Cali

[Minnesota Mike]

Yeah that's pretty much the case. Porter is leading right now due to name rec but she doesn't have a machine that will bring people out to vote for her knock doors make phone calls etc. Porters support is soft rn and from low info voters who are less likely to turnout or spread the word and encourage others to vote for her. Lee will have plenty of grassroots support and her support will be more solid and more likely to be mainted and expanded. Essentially Lee has more room to grow and larger engine to keep her in the race and her fundraising will be more reliable since she has more organizations and elected officials backing her and you need a lot of money and a consistent stream of if to compete in a state as big as Cali

But that's the thing, Porter has a huge online fundraising network, she really does not need to worry about local officials throwing her a $1,000 a plate fundraisers. Same with Schiff.  Honestly the reason I think Lee is likely to finish behind Schiff and Porter in the primary is I don't think she can fundraise with them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be Porter I can root for her but we need more blk women either one is good enough for me an R isn't making it the runoff with a Dem Prez Primary in March 24

We must remember it's VBM it's not same day as I caution users about a red wave, abstintee ballot favors Ds not Rs