TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[UWS]

https://www.newsweek.com/ted-cruz-boost-texas-early-voting-blue-wave-not-happening-1975339

Republicans in TX have between 300,000 and 400,000 vote advantage over Dems

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.newsweek.com/ted-cruz-boost-texas-early-voting-blue-wave-not-happening-1975339

Republicans in TX have between 300,000 and 400,000 vote advantage over Dems

To be honest that seems a bit underwhelming for Republicans. Trump carried TX by over 600k votes in 2020 and TX is one of those states where the divide between EV/ED isn't that large and is sometimes outright R-friendly.

Also for a variety of reasons using past primary history to gauge Republican/Democrat is flawed. Under that metric, you'd have Harris getting like 90% of the vote in South TX and Republicans easily carrying places like Tarrant County, neither of which are going to happen. Also what about voters who haven't participated in any primaries because they're new or just don't vote in them?

[vbfox]

Liz Cheney, who is living in Texas, will be voting for Allred -- there may be a significant portion of never-Trumpers turning out to vote in Texas.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Made this map measuring Cruz's underperformance vis a vis Trump.
Duval County (9.9%) has the biggest Cruz underperformance, and Loving County (9.8%) comes second.

[vbfox]

Made this map measuring Cruz's underperformance vis a vis Trump.
Duval County (9.9%) has the biggest Cruz underperformance, and Loving County (9.8%) comes second.

Border Latinos wanna kick Cancún Cruz for leaving them out cold (although Loving County is literally the least populous county in the US)

[Steve from Lambeth]

Assuming straight-ticket voting, the only reason why King County is yellow is because one (1) Harris voter forgot to also vote in the Senate race

[ProgressiveModerate]

One weird silver lining for TX Dems this cycle is it appears this Senate race will only end up about 7% to the right of the nation - which relative to the nation is the strongest showing any statewide Dem has put up in TX in a long time (2010 Gov?). At face value, this would suggest Allred would've been highly competitive in 2020 style environment and outright won in a 2018 environment (though ofc in practice universal swing isn't real).

It's a bit hard to separate out how much of this was due to Cruz's unique weaknesses, Allred's unique strengths, TX Demographics generally pushing the state left, ect - if you believe the Senate results are more representative of elections in TX going forwards there is still some reason to be optimistic Democrats could be truly competitive in the state under better circumstances. However, if you believe this was due to the unique circumstances of this race - then 2026 TX-Sen looks like a really long shot.

[Pericles]

One weird silver lining for TX Dems this cycle is it appears this Senate race will only end up about 7% to the right of the nation - which relative to the nation is the strongest showing any statewide Dem has put up in TX in a long time (2010 Gov?). At face value, this would suggest Allred would've been highly competitive in 2020 style environment and outright won in a 2018 environment (though ofc in practice universal swing isn't real).

It's a bit hard to separate out how much of this was due to Cruz's unique weaknesses, Allred's unique strengths, TX Demographics generally pushing the state left, ect - if you believe the Senate results are more representative of elections in TX going forwards there is still some reason to be optimistic Democrats could be truly competitive in the state under better circumstances. However, if you believe this was due to the unique circumstances of this race - then 2026 TX-Sen looks like a really long shot.

Cornyn overperformed in 2020 by a lot, and while 2020 and 2018 are different cycles it is apparent that he is the stronger incumbent. Of course it is worth contesting though.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Cornyn isn't losing with Abbott running for reelected these days forget it