TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1654280530941157377

Very possibly will be the most expensive Senate race of all time

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not 2024 yet but we tithe all the time as I said FL isn't safe either there isn't a nominee yet

[Pollster]

I mean why else would an only 3 term Democrat give up his safe seat and probably lose to Cruz in the Senate race?

Because congress members get their pension once they hit 5 years of service.

[Comrade Funk]

Well he's better than Hegar at least...

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The discussion going on in this thread really highlights the odd predicament right now for a Democratic candidate in Texas.

On one hand, a prominent candidate like Allred would do wonders to boost confidence for the state party and move forward the future potential of Texas as a purple or even blue state. Much like Beto in 2018.

On the other hand, folks are confused or possibly adverse to the idea that a prominent Dem would step up and sacrifice themselves for a seat they think has no chance of flipping.

I guess what I'm getting at is that you can't just will a state like Texas or Georgia into flipping. You need folks like Allred and Warnock to step up and take a crack at it.

People said the same thing about Arizona leading up to 2018 and same thing about Georgia leading up to 2020. Now it’s Texas’s turn.

It's almost uncanny how much this thread reads like the 2020 Georgia Senate threads so far.

[TML]

Well he's better than Hegar at least...

Hegar was coronated by Chuck Schumer and the DSCC, which certainly contributed to her underperforming Biden on the same ticket. I just hope that Schumer and/or the DSCC can once again refrain from coronating anyone early on in the election cycle (they only abandoned the "early coronation" practice for the 2022 cycle; before that, they used to do early coronations for every cycle from 2006 to 2020) so that someone can emerge from the primary who can at least run roughly even with Biden or even overperform him.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Well he's better than Hegar at least...

Hegar was coronated by Chuck Schumer and the DSCC, which certainly contributed to her underperforming Biden on the same ticket. I just hope that Schumer and/or the DSCC can once again refrain from coronating anyone early on in the election cycle (they only abandoned the "early coronation" practice for the 2022 cycle; before that, they used to do early coronations for every cycle from 2006 to 2020) so that someone can emerge from the primary who can at least run roughly even with Biden or even overperform him.

I don't think Schumer coronating her isn't what mainly caused her to underperform Biden although it could have impacted her a little bit. It was mainly because many suburban voters who couldn't stand Trump were okay with Cornyn because he was just a generic boring old white incumbent Republican. That's actually very common performance: see McCain 2016, Isakson 2016, even Perdue outperformed Trump in the first round on Nov 3 before the runoff. Obviously Cruz isn't cut from the same cloth so that doesn't apply for 2024, his performance will likely be very similar to Trump possibly even lower.

[Mr. Smith]

The discussion going on in this thread really highlights the odd predicament right now for a Democratic candidate in Texas.

On one hand, a prominent candidate like Allred would do wonders to boost confidence for the state party and move forward the future potential of Texas as a purple or even blue state. Much like Beto in 2018.

On the other hand, folks are confused or possibly adverse to the idea that a prominent Dem would step up and sacrifice themselves for a seat they think has no chance of flipping.

I guess what I'm getting at is that you can't just will a state like Texas or Georgia into flipping. You need folks like Allred and Warnock to step up and take a crack at it.

People said the same thing about Arizona leading up to 2018 and same thing about Georgia leading up to 2020. Now it’s Texas’s turn.

It's almost uncanny how much this thread reads like the 2020 Georgia Senate threads so far.

Counterpoints: Maine, and NC [this one is really inexcusable considering the guy was the runner-up from a decade ago], and even Florida 2018 for a time...especially when one considers Hillary's performance in Miami-Dade.

Well he's better than Hegar at least...

Hegar was coronated by Chuck Schumer and the DSCC, which certainly contributed to her underperforming Biden on the same ticket. I just hope that Schumer and/or the DSCC can once again refrain from coronating anyone early on in the election cycle (they only abandoned the "early coronation" practice for the 2022 cycle; before that, they used to do early coronations for every cycle from 2006 to 2020) so that someone can emerge from the primary who can at least run roughly even with Biden or even overperform him.

Not really, she had a lane to herself whereas Royce West and Cristina Ramirez split the vote...it's just a pity it wasn't Ramirez that made the run-off. She might well have pulled a Sestak.

Also, it cannot be overstated how much Dems after 2012 seemed to like trying to win over and flip Repubs rather than turnout the base, persuade true swing voters, and most critically, turnout the truly apathetic and disconnected...this pretty much meant there would always be a lag at the expense of the Senate...if the base didn't fall in love. The GOP were better at staying uniform.

Maybe 2022 is the wake-up call needed.

[jamestroll]

My gut feeling is that Cruz is slimy and disliked enough that while Biden WILL lose Texas, and that Texas is NOT going to be a Democratic state, we will have a split ticket decision here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My gut feeling is that Cruz is slimy and disliked enough that while Biden WILL lose Texas, and that Texas is NOT going to be a Democratic state, we will have a split ticket decision here.

Lol it's 19 mnths til Eday blue wave don't happen til Oct 24, with Trump and he's not gonna be reelection a 393 map doesn't apply as I keep saying

[Lincoln Project]

I’ve seen enough. Lean R ——> Safe R. We can now project that Ted Cruz will win re-election to the United States Senate, defeating congressman Colin Allred.

https://www.breitbart.com/2nd-amendment/2023/05/05/ted-cruz-s-challenger-colin-allred-things-would-be-better-if-second-amendment-hadnt-been-written/

[GALeftist]

I’ve seen enough. Lean R ——> Safe R. We can now project that Ted Cruz will win re-election to the United States Senate, defeating congressman Colin Allred.

https://www.breitbart.com/2nd-amendment/2023/05/05/ted-cruz-s-challenger-colin-allred-things-would-be-better-if-second-amendment-hadnt-been-written/

I'm getting real tired of this mindless "hurr durr Texas guns" schtick. The reality is that Beto did ~8.5 points worse than 2018 in a year ~8.5 points redder than 2018 even after the AR-15 comments or whatever. Sure, Texas trended left in the interim, but Abbott is also stronger than Cruz.

The reality is that the shifts propelling Texas Democrats forward are in places like Tarrant, Collin, Denton, and Williamson. These are not areas primarily populated by the gun-toting redneck stereotypes modern conservatives like to imagine. I frankly find it very hard to believe that guns are going to be highly salient in this election; I'm personally more concerned about oil.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm still pessimistic on Texas even having the possibility of voting Democratic in any way statewide in 2024, but f*** it-I changed my mind, Democrats do still have to at least try here and both Allred and Gutierrez (though the nominee will be Allred, clearly) are about the best Democrats can do now.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/AlexBores/status/1654884134215450624

Bro

[President Johnson]

Why isn't the Republican BS of "Biden far-left agenda", "reckless spending" and "soft on crime" not challenged much more, especially by the media? These lies keep getting repeated by Republican hacks and office seekers although there's no factual evidence to back this up. No wonder so many people are buying the lies when they get repeated over and over again.

They really have no idea what "far left" actually is; Biden's agenda certainly isn't, not even Bernie's policies are hard left. The mainstream Democratic agenda is center-left, some might even say center. As for the deficit, Biden has substantially reduced the federal deficit, as have Obama and Clinton. The previous Republican administration were anything but fiscally responsible. Journalists and the Democrats need to push back on this silly narrative much more effectively or - in the media's case - at all.

[TML]

Why isn't the Republican BS of "Biden far-left agenda", "reckless spending" and "soft on crime" not challenged much more, especially by the media? These lies keep getting repeated by Republican hacks and office seekers although there's no factual evidence to back this up. No wonder so many people are buying the lies when they get repeated over and over again.

They really have no idea what "far left" actually is; Biden's agenda certainly isn't, not even Bernie's policies are hard left. The mainstream Democratic agenda is center-left, some might even say center. As for the deficit, Biden has substantially reduced the federal deficit, as have Obama and Clinton. The previous Republican administration were anything but fiscally responsible. Journalists and the Democrats need to push back on this silly narrative much more effectively or - in the media's case - at all.

The mainstream media is controlled by corporate interests - they make a substantial portion of their money from corporate advertisers, and said corporate interests do not wish to be challenged in order to continue sustaining these media outlets.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/AlexBores/status/1654884134215450624

Bro

This reminds of the time Marco Rubio wanted to honor the legacy of John Lewis and used a photo of Elijah Cummings.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map but this is a S race not a Gov race and sometimes as we see in state Edays and Fed races Red states split their votes you see KY and MS due to Beshear and Presley are doing well enough to win and the Rs dominate the state legislature the same thing can happen in TX and MO, OH and MT Ds are forgoing Manchin and Sinema, vote for Comprehensive background checks while Abbott has discretion over application of the law

2006 McCaskill, Brown, Nelson and Tester all won, since 2006 Red states have been doing this the same as in NC where Stein is clearly fav over Robinson an R check with a state legislature

The same thing has gone on in WI, PA and MI WI still has an R state legislatures and MI and LA just flipped D that's why Trump won in 2016 due to WI, PA and MI had R state legislatures

That video doesn't hurt Allred one bit because Ds support Comprehensive background checks on guns not the elimination of guns that worked in 2016 pre Pandemic Great Recession 2.0

Allred gonna reiterate and he standing as an athlete that he supports Comprehension background checks on guns

[Skill and Chance]

I’ve seen enough. Lean R ——> Safe R. We can now project that Ted Cruz will win re-election to the United States Senate, defeating congressman Colin Allred.

https://www.breitbart.com/2nd-amendment/2023/05/05/ted-cruz-s-challenger-colin-allred-things-would-be-better-if-second-amendment-hadnt-been-written/

Might be too early to release this?  Texas has open primaries.  This could end up nominating Gutierrez. 

[The Arizonan]

https://twitter.com/AlexBores/status/1654884134215450624

Bro

This reminds of the time Marco Rubio wanted to honor the legacy of John Lewis and used a photo of Elijah Cummings.

It also reminds me of the time CBS News used a photo of Elijah Cummings instead of John Lewis’s photo when they talked about him passing away.

On another note, Republican senators all look alike.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls showed today Biden lost his 5/10 pt edge on Trump guess we aren't winning TX right now and you shouldn't donate until there is a poll

[GALeftist]

I’ve seen enough. Lean R ——> Safe R. We can now project that Ted Cruz will win re-election to the United States Senate, defeating congressman Colin Allred.

https://www.breitbart.com/2nd-amendment/2023/05/05/ted-cruz-s-challenger-colin-allred-things-would-be-better-if-second-amendment-hadnt-been-written/

Might be too early to release this?  Texas has open primaries.  This could end up nominating Gutierrez. 

Gutierrez represents Uvalde; his whole thing is gun control. That might be the one issue he's more liberal on than Allred.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The poll that shows Biden down 7 shows it's a 303 map and Peters is donating all funds to Brown and Tester so it's premature to donate to ALLRED but it's not premature to donate to JAWANDO and Barbara Lee which I am happy to do so

[Spectator]

Surprised it’s been about a week and no one has polled the matchup yet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Surprised it’s been about a week and no one has polled the matchup yet.

It's not gonna flip until Oct 24, just like OH, NC and MO andMT along with a 232 H

But since Alsobrooks, Barbara Lee and Shawn Wilson are running ALLRED will get entry of media Coverage unlike Beto whom was running against Abbott

It's wave insurance but Presley and Beshesr are beating expectations like Peltola did there are blks in red states it's preposterous to assume swing red states are never gonna be win by Ds and Clinton and Obama and Biden won them in 1992/96 and 2008/12 and 20o8 was a Great Recession like Pandemic was

Ratings don't matter as much on Eday all the maps are blank on Eday, that's why Oz, Laxalt, Masters and Walker were all ahead pre Eday and LOST