TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[Spectator]

Scott Kelly or Colin Allred

Colin Allred would be a great pick, he literally won a D +1 district in suburban DFW by over 20 points this year. Insane.

Agreed, Allred could indeed give Cruz a run for his money. Appeal in suburbs is key for any Dem to win statewide in TX.

More like Cruz’s unappeal would give Dems a shot here. Cruz will do worse than Trump if he runs. Only question is by how much.

[President Johnson]

I agree, Colin Allred would be a very decent candidate.

Not sure whether it's not too early for Hidalgo, although I believe she has great potential. Maybe she can get a House seat first and run for senate in the 2030s or perhaps 2026 during a Republican midterm. Especially if Cornyn potentially retires.

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[Spectator]

I agree, Colin Allred would be a very decent candidate.

Not sure whether it's not too early for Hidalgo, although I believe she has great potential. Maybe she can get a House seat first and run for senate in the 2030s or perhaps 2026 during a Republican midterm. Especially if Cornyn potentially retires.

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Lina Hidalgo nearly lost a Biden +12 mega county, twice. Nominating her would be one way to foreclose any possibility of beating Cruz, which probably requires a moderate yet charismatic Democrat challenger. Scott Kelly may be the most intriguing. Or that retired Navy SEAL Admiral.

[S019]

I agree, Colin Allred would be a very decent candidate.

Not sure whether it's not too early for Hidalgo, although I believe she has great potential. Maybe she can get a House seat first and run for senate in the 2030s or perhaps 2026 during a Republican midterm. Especially if Cornyn potentially retires.

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Hidalgo has a scandal and almost lost in Harris County, she’s damaged goods now.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I expect 2024 Tx Senate to be in line with the presidential result and I don't see who the Democrats put up that attracts people who are voting Trump or DeSantis at the same time.

Extremely likely R.

Democrats should be wary on throwing money here instead of max spending in WI and AZ.

This seat is what 8th, 9th, most likely to flip next cycle?   

[President Johnson]

I agree, Colin Allred would be a very decent candidate.

Not sure whether it's not too early for Hidalgo, although I believe she has great potential. Maybe she can get a House seat first and run for senate in the 2030s or perhaps 2026 during a Republican midterm. Especially if Cornyn potentially retires.

Changed the thread title now

Lina Hidalgo nearly lost a Biden +12 mega county, twice. Nominating her would be one way to foreclose any possibility of beating Cruz, which probably requires a moderate yet charismatic Democrat challenger. Scott Kelly may be the most intriguing. Or that retired Navy SEAL Admiral.

Fair enough, though as Texas gets more blue, I would definitely keep her on the radar for the future. Depending how she continues to handle her job.

[S019]

I expect 2024 Tx Senate to be in line with the presidential result and I don't see who the Democrats put up that attracts people who are voting Trump or DeSantis at the same time.

Extremely likely R.

Democrats should be wary on throwing money here instead of max spending in WI and AZ.

This seat is what 8th, 9th, most likely to flip next cycle?   

At this point, Democrats do have a better chance in Texas than in Ohio or West Virginia.

[kwabbit]

Scott Kelly or Colin Allred

Colin Allred would be a great pick, he literally won a D +1 district in suburban DFW by over 20 points this year. Insane.

I believe he was redistricted to a safe seat under the new map for this decade. His old seat under the 2010s map was very competitive.

No, I'm not aware of this at all, AFAIK the Seat that Allred just won by 20+ points is the exact same seat that Pete Sessions won by 20+ points in 2014 and hasn't been changed since 2013.

Every seat changed lol, Texas was gerrymandered and Allred was given a D sink. He won by 31 in a Biden +34 seat. That’s still a good performance, but he’s not in a competitive district anymore.

Link to these changes? While I know it isn't the most reliable, wiki seems to say that he's still representing the same district. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas%27s_32nd_congressional_district

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/be/Texas_Congressional_Districts%2C_118th_Congress.svg/2524px-Texas_Congressional_Districts%2C_118th_Congress.svg.png
This is the post-2022 map.

Okay, so he was running in the same district this time around, however? The following website also confirms this.

https://redistricting.capitol.texas.gov

Scott Kelly or Colin Allred

Colin Allred would be a great pick, he literally won a D +1 district in suburban DFW by over 20 points this year. Insane.

I believe he was redistricted to a safe seat under the new map for this decade. His old seat under the 2010s map was very competitive.

No, I'm not aware of this at all, AFAIK the Seat that Allred just won by 20+ points is the exact same seat that Pete Sessions won by 20+ points in 2014 and hasn't been changed since 2013.

Every seat changed lol, Texas was gerrymandered and Allred was given a D sink. He won by 31 in a Biden +34 seat. That’s still a good performance, but he’s not in a competitive district anymore.

Link to these changes? While I know it isn't the most reliable, wiki seems to say that he's still representing the same district. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas%27s_32nd_congressional_district

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2022/congressional-redistricting-maps-by-state-and-district/texas/

So that's the post-2022 map or it's the map the legit ran on this year? There seems to be quite a bit of conflicting info out there. Or many sites simply haven't updated their info. But I may be wrong, since this article appears to confirm what y'all said, in which case, my bad.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/09/24/texas-congressional-redistricting/

The district is numbered the same but the lines are way different. Allred is representing the old district all the way up to January 3, 2023. But he ran to represent the new lines last Tuesday.

The new lines don’t take effect until the start of the new congress. All members are representing the 2010s lines until this January.

[Dani Rose]

Colin Allred just writes himself into the spotlight. To put it in wrestling terms, strap a rocket to him and push him to the moon.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Colin Allred just writes himself into the spotlight. To put it in wrestling terms, strap a rocket to him and push him to the moon.

I doubt he runs with the DH majority in site for 24 ANYWAYS, winning back all NY, VA 2 and some CA and AZ Districts, he is staying put, Cruz is safe when he starts campaign he gets tough as nails like Greg Abbott

[Heebie Jeebie]

Based solely on vibes, I like Joaquin Castro and think he'd be a very strong challenger.

How about Marc Veasey?  Anybody see him as a contender?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If Scott Kelly runs and wins, the next Democratic trifecta had better legalize human cloning, make 98 more Kellys, and run the rest of them for the other Senate seats.

 

[Spectator]

I expect 2024 Tx Senate to be in line with the presidential result and I don't see who the Democrats put up that attracts people who are voting Trump or DeSantis at the same time.

Extremely likely R.

Democrats should be wary on throwing money here instead of max spending in WI and AZ.

This seat is what 8th, 9th, most likely to flip next cycle?   

Because Cruz is so uniquely hated in his own right he almost inevitably does worse than whoever the Republican presidential nominee is. I think it’s almost a given provided Dems don’t nominate someone like Hidalgo. It’s only a question of how much the Democrat can capitalize on that hatred.

[Spectator]

Cruz is in fact running for a third term, possibly with a vanity presidential run as well:

https://www.texastribune.org/2022/11/19/ted-cruz-third-term-senate/

His candidacy is step one in what Democrats need in terms of everything going right for them to win.

1. Hope Cruz runs again, preferably after another presidential run humiliation
2. Get a strong Dem with crossover appeal like William McRaven or Scott Kelly in
3. Hope for a Trump-Biden rematch

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

John Love III is in and Colin ALRED is considering l hope Colin ALRED announced it's Safe R but I am optimistic on this race TX is becoming more bluer than FL they said that on MSNBC because no one has announced or plans on announcing against Scott

OH, WVA, MT, TX are wave insurance but it's a Prez Eday just remember that Cooper won and Biden and Cunningham lost in 2020 and Manchin and Tester both won in 2012 when Romney easily won MT and WV

I am donating to John Love and Sherrid Brown in 24 definitely

[BloJo94]

I hope Sema Hernandez runs again. She would be a fantastic choice.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope Sema Hernandez runs again. She would be a fantastic choice.

Lol Colin ALRED has endorsement John Love it's Lean R but it's a Prez race and we can expect higher turnout it's our 51st or 52nd seat pending how GA goes

[Mr. Smith]

Really sleeping on Royce West here.  Or Tzitzun Ramirez for that matter.

[BloJo94]

Really sleeping on Royce West here.  Or Tzitzun Ramirez for that matter.

I think they might run. Also Chris Bell.https://mobile.twitter.com/cristinanextgen/status/1593730910410645506?cxt=HHwWhI...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cruz knows that Donald Trump is corrupted he said it in the 2016 primary when Palin endorsed Trump over Cru it didn't come into effect after 2016 when  Trump used Russia to get elected be the Pandemic

The R brand is bad because of Insurrection

Colin ALRED endorsed John Love III NOT CHRIS BELL or Royce White, Love is gonna be the Nominee

It's our best pickup opportunity unless DEMINGS or Graham runs against Scott and none have decided to run yet so John Love III IT IS

I have looked all over politics 1.com and Ds so far, it's still a ways away have concluded TX is our best pickups

[Suburbia]

Likely R.

Texas is a stubborn red state until 2030 at the least.....

Beto is done. Done.

Andrew White?

[exopolitician]

Colin Allred is the only legitimate choice, but even still I doubt he would win. This state is an absolute black hole for the Democrats.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Texas is more doable than it seems at first glance, even the exit polls showed glimmers of hope if Democrats can focus on certain issues (such as abortion), I really am hoping Collin Allred runs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In this Environment no we're not gonna win TX but in 2 yrs when Economy and inflation cools, and perhaps the War in Ukraine is over, we are likely to replicate a 51/49 Senate map and  218/217,DH no matter what combo of WVA, GA Runoff, OH, MT and TX are, and there is a KY Gov test in 23 to see if Ds can close the gap on the rural vote

Biden is gonna win the Prez anyways, but s Secular Trifecta with DC statehood would be 👍🏾 we held the blue wall in. 22 WI, PA and MI Govs

[GoTfan]

All of the potential opponents to Cruz are too socialist for such a red state like Texas.

Joaquin Castro, for example, supports socialized medicine. On taxes, he voted against reducing taxes on small business, against repealing the Death Tax, against the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. On energy, he voted to increase regulations on fracking and to ban exports of natural gas, voted against Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) exports and against the Keystone XL pipeline.

https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2016/roll295.xml

https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2013/roll601.xml

https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2013/roll602.xml

https://www.congress.gov/bill/113th-congress/house-bill/6/actions

https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2013/roll179.xml

On immigration, he supports sanctuary cities, voted against Kate's Law.

https://justfacts.votesmart.org/bill/20281/53368/49227/enforce-the-law-for-sanctuary-cities-act#53368

https://justfacts.votesmart.org/bill/23224/60153/49227/no-sanctuary-for-criminals-act#60153

When Hurricane Harvey hit Texas in 2017, he was one of only 4 Texas Democrats to vote against providing tax relief for victims of Hurricane Harvey.

https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2017/roll542.xml

Colin Allred voted in line with Joe Biden 100% of the time.

You keep using that word. It does not mean what you think it means.